EFFECT OF HS2 ON EXISTING INTERCITY SERVICES PREDICTED RESIDUAL INTERCITY SERVICES ON EXISTING MAIN LINE NETWORK WITH HS2 IN PLACE Taken from: Table 23, pp91-92, HS2 Regional Economic Impacts, HS2 Ltd, September 2013 Page 1 of 4 Figure A2.1 : Predicted Services on HS2 and Existing Network (HS2 Ltd, 2013) Page 2 of 4 UK INTERCITY RAIL NETWORK : ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT FROM HS2, AS SET OUT IN TABLE 23 OF HS2 REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS (aka KPMG REPORT) By Colin Elliff BSc CEng MICE, Civil Engineering Principal, High Speed UK PROPOSED NEW HS2 SERVICES ASSUMED SERVICES ON EXISTING NETWORK Notes C & F relate to changes to WCML intercity services as premium Liverpool/ Manchester/Birmingham to London traffic transfers to HS2, and services to bypassed intermediate stations along the route regress to ‘regional’ status as frequency of fast services is reduced, and other services A B C are slowed with more stops added. ‘Capacity’ is increased by reducing the speed differentials between fast intercity trains and slower stopping services/freight. Reductions in intercity services to London are as follows: Stockport: 3tph reduced to 1tph Stoke: 2tph reduced to 1tph Wolverhampton: 1 tph service slowed D E F Coventry 3tph reduced to 1tph Note I details a 20% reduction (from 5tph to 4tph) in intercity services along MML. Biggest issue here is blight to Leicester and to central Derby & Nottingham as regional G H I development focuses on new hub at Toton. Note L details a reduction in ECML intercity services. Leeds to London (2tph) and Edinburgh/Newcastle to London (2tph) will both be cut to 1tph. Bypassed intermediate cities eg Doncaster & Wakefield will see intercity service levels J K L halved, and probably made slower. Note O details Birmingham-Derby-Sheffield XCountry services diverted via Toton to connect with HS2. This will add ~30 minutes to journey times from South-West to Yorkshire & North-East. XCountry services will generally terminate at M N O Newcastle rather than Edinburgh, greatly reducing Yorkshire/Scotland connectivity Note R details distortion of local East Mids services to accommodate new Toton hub P Q R Note U details improved local services to Doncaster & Stoke but fails to mention reduction in intercity services to these communities S T U Reduction in ECML & XCountry intercity services detailed in Notes L & O indicate Newcastle to Edinburgh services reduced to circa one third of current levels CONCLUSION The table above details the proposed new HS2 services and reductions in intercity service levels on the existing classic network which have been considered by KPMG in their assessment of HS2’s regional economic impacts. Noting the general disconnection between HS2 and the existing ‘classic’ network, and the reductions in intercity services to the major intermediate communities that are bypassed by HS2 (as detailed above and on the diagram on the following page), it is clear that HS2 does not achieve significant improvements in national intercity connectivity. On the contrary, it would appear that the intervention of HS2 will have the opposite effect, of damaging national intercity connectivity. It is therefore difficult to understand how a reputable consultant such as KPMG could have inferred the massive benefits to regional economies set out in their 2013 report HS2 Regional Economic Impacts. (All these adverse impacts are avoided with the better balanced and fully integrated High Speed UK proposals www.highspeeduk.co.uk). Table 2 : 2013 Assessment of HS2’s Impact on Existing Intercity Services Page 3 of 4 HIGH SPEED 2: KEY Principal intercity route CONNECTIVITY IMPLICATIONS New high speed line as ‘Y’ OF 2013 HS2 PROPOSALS AS SET Projected extension of ‘Y’ to OUT IN ‘HS2 REGIONAL link all primary cities ECONOMIC IMPACTS’ (BY KPMG) Primary/interchange hub/ secondary centre DIAGRAM NND 2A Regional centres bypassed by © NETWORK2020 MAPPING 2013 HS2 with intercity services INVERNESS significantly worsened Airport directly connected to ABERDEEN high speed network LO Direct HS2/ at hourly BI Heathrow/ or better NG other link frequency PERTH SH Intercity link made worse DUNDEE MA 2 2-hour frequency LI Segregated terminus or LS parkway stn NE GLASGOW EDINBURGH EH 2 W GL 2 EDINBURGH-GLASGOW LHR x HIGH SPEED LINK VIA LO BI NG SH MA LI LS NE EH GL LHR CARSTAIRS AS PER SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT HIGH SPEED 2 (2013) PROPOSAL (32min E to G) LINKS BETWEEN PRIMARY CENTRES SERVICES E,Q: ∑3tph REF NOTES L & O NEWCASTLE CARLISLE HIGH SPEED 2: DEDICATED HIGH SUNDERLAND SPEED LINE IN ‘Y’ CONFIGURATION PROJECTED NORTHWARDS TO LINK ALL DARLINGTON PRIMARY REGIONAL CENTRES OF MIDDLESBROUGH MIDLANDS, NORTH & SCOTLAND TO LONDON AND BIRMINGHAM SERVICES K,T: ∑3tph HS2 NETWORK PERFORMANCE HUGELY RESTRICTED BY POORLY CONNECTED BLACKPOOL YORK TERMINUS STATIONS IN LEEDS, LEEDS REF NOTE L MANCHESTER & BIRMINGHAM PRESTON BRADFORD HULL WARRINGTON H’F’D WAKEFIELD LIVERPOOL M’C’R HOLYHEAD GRIMSBY DONCASTER S’PORT BANGOR E SERVICESLINCOLN G,K,M,N,S,T: ∑10tph REF NOTES C & F CHESTER SHEFFIELD CREWE STOKED REF NOTE O TOTON NEWARK SERVICES A,B,E,H,J,P,Q: ∑12tph DERBY REF NOTE I NOTTINGHAM SHREWSBURY WALSALL NORWICH REF NOTES C & F PETERBORO’ WOLVERHAMPTON LEICESTER SERVICES D,J,M,Q,T: ∑9tph BIRMINGHAM COVENTRY NORTHAMPTON CAMBRIDGE SERVICES A,B,D,E,G,H,K,N,S,P: ∑18tph LUTON MK IPSWICH CARDIFF STANSTED SWANSEA NEWPORT OXFORD REF NOTE O READING BRISTOL MEDWAY TOWNS SWINDON LHR LONDON GATWICK EXETER SOUTHAMPTON HS1 BOURNEMOUTH PLYMOUTH PORTSMOUTH BRIGHTON NOTE THAT 18tph IS THE MAXIMUM CAPACITY HS2 LINK TO HEATHROW TORBAY OF HS2’s 2-TRACK ROUTE. EXTRA SERVICES TO EITHER VIA CHANGE AT OLD OAK COMMON OR VIA BYPASSED COMMUNITIES ARE NOT PRACTICIABLE DEDICATED HS2 SPUR TO T5 Figure 3 : 2013 Assessment of HS2 Intercity Connectivity correlated to Table 23 of HS2 Regional Economic Impacts Page 4 of 4 .