Effects of internal migration on the human settlements system in Latin America and the Caribbean Jorge Rodríguez Vignoli 7 Economic growth and income concentration and their effects on poverty in Brazil Jair Andrade Araujo, Emerson Marinho and Guaracyane Lima Campêlo 33 Personal income tax and income inequality in Ecuador between 2007 and 2011 Liliana Cano 55 Analysis of formal-informal transitions in the Ecuadorian labour market Adriana Patricia Vega Núñez 77 The impact on wages, employment and exports of backward linkages between multinational companies and SMEs Juan Carlos Leiva, Ricardo Monge-González and Juan Antonio Rodríguez-Álvarez 97 Job satisfaction in Chile: geographic determinants and differences Luz María Ferrada 125 Currency carry trade and the cost of international reserves in Mexico Carlos A. Rozo and Norma Maldonado 147 The mining canon and the budget political cycle in Peru’s district municipalities, 2002-2011 Carol Pebe, Norally Radas and Javier Torres 167 A structuralist-Keynesian model for determining the optimum real exchange rate for Brazil’s economic development process: 1999-2015 André Nassif, Carmen Feijó and Eliane Araújo 187 Impact of the Guaranteed Health Plan with a single community premium on the demand for private health insurance in Chile Eduardo Bitran, Fabián Duarte, Dalila Fernandes and Marcelo Villena 209 ISSN 0251-2920 Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/suscripciones REVIEW ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NO 123 DECEMBER • 2017 Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary a.i. REVIEW ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Osvaldo Sunkel Chairman of the Editorial Board Miguel Torres Technical Editor ISSN 0251-2920 Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary a.i. Osvaldo Sunkel Chair of the Editorial Board Miguel Torres Technical Editor The CEPAL Review was founded in 1976, along with the corresponding Spanish version, Revista CEPAL, and it is published three times a year by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which has its headquarters in Santiago. 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Contents Effects of internal migration on the human settlements system in Latin America and the Caribbean Jorge Rodríguez Vignoli ................................................. 7 Economic growth and income concentration and their effects on poverty in Brazil Jair Andrade Araujo, Emerson Marinho and Guaracyane Lima Campêlo .......... 33 Personal income tax and income inequality in Ecuador between 2007 and 2011 Liliana Cano ......................................................... 55 Analysis of formal-informal transitions in the Ecuadorian labour market Adriana Patricia Vega Núñez ........................................... 77 The impact on wages, employment and exports of backward linkages between multinational companies and SMEs Juan Carlos Leiva, Ricardo Monge-González and Juan Antonio Rodríguez-Álvarez .. 97 Job satisfaction in Chile: geographic determinants and differences Luz María Ferrada ................................................... 125 Currency carry trade and the cost of international reserves in Mexico Carlos A. Rozo and Norma Maldonado ................................... 147 The mining canon and the budget political cycle in Peru’s district municipalities, 2002-2011 Carol Pebe, Norally Radas and Javier Torres ............................... 167 A structuralist-Keynesian model for determining the optimum real exchange rate for Brazil’s economic development process: 1999-2015 André Nassif, Carmen Feijó and Eliane Araújo ............................ 187 Impact of the Guaranteed Health Plan with a single community premium on the demand for private health insurance in Chile Eduardo Bitran, Fabián Duarte, Dalila Fernandes and Marcelo Villena .......... 209 Guidelines for contributors to the CEPAL Review 229 Explanatory notes - Three dots (...) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specifed. - A slash (/) between years (e.g. 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. - Individual fgures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total because of rounding. Effects of internal migration on the human settlements system in Latin America and the Caribbean Jorge Rodríguez Vignoli Abstract The gradual abatement of rural-urban migration in Latin America and the Caribbean is leading to growing prevalence of migration between cities, a phenomenon about which little theory or empirical studies have been developed in the region. Accordingly, this work uses census microdata —the only source available in the region for estimating migration between cities— from a dozen countries to: (i) estimate the recent evolution of this migration using categories based on cities’ population size (including a residual category that groups municipalities without cities); (ii) estimate the effect of this migration on the composition by sex, age, and education level of these categories of city, and (iii) evaluate in a general and preliminary manner the two-way links between the socioeconomic conditions of cities and the magnitude and effects of migration. Keywords Internal migration, human settlements, cities, population composition, quality of life, population censuses, migration statistics, Latin America and the Caribbean JEL classification R23, P25, O54 Author Jorge Rodríguez Vignoli is a research assistant at the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Email: [email protected]. CEPAL Review N° 123 • December 2017 9 I. Introduction1 Urbanization is part of the long-term structural processes that interact to generate economic and social modernization and cultural modernity. A few years ago, urbanization reached a milestone, when the global urban population passed 50% of the total. All existing projections suggest that this percentage will continue to rise and will likely follow a logistic trajectory, on the assumption that a proportion of the population will remain in rural areas, either because of individual preference or because of economic and social needs. Today, 80% of the Latin American and Caribbean population lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2015). This being so, the most frequent kind of internal migration is almost certainly between urban areas. However, inter-city migration has been much less studied than rural-urban migration, which tends to remain the focus, despite its gradual and inevitable depletion. Accordingly, a frst objective of this work is to provide a quantitative approach to migration fows between categories and nodes of the human settlements system, with an emphasis on inter-city migration. A second objective is to show that internal migration —especially between cities— has important effects on human settlements and on cities in particular. The analysis will focus on a