Economic Development Profile George Municipality Prepared by Local Economic Development George Municipality June 2015 Contact: Carli Bunding-Venter [email protected] 044 802 2000 Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 2. DEMOGRAPHICS ............................................................................................................. 2 2.1 Population size and growth ..................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Age and Gender Distribution ................................................................................................... 3 3. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT ..................................................................................................... 5 3.1 Health ...................................................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Education and Literacy Rate .................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Human Development Index .................................................................................................... 9 4. THE ENVIRONMENT ......................................................................................................... 9 4.1 The Aquatic Ecosystem ............................................................................................................ 9 4.1.1 Water quality..................................................................................................................................... 9 4.1.2 Water availability ............................................................................................................................ 10 4.1.3 Coastal systems and estuaries ........................................................................................................ 11 4.2 Air Quality .............................................................................................................................. 11 4.3 Climate change ...................................................................................................................... 11 4.4 Land cover, transformation and degradation ....................................................................... 12 5. GOVERNANCE .............................................................................................................. 13 5.1 Safety and Security ................................................................................................................ 13 5.2 Social participation in local government ............................................................................... 14 5.3 Accountability and Transparency .......................................................................................... 15 5.4 Effectiveness and Efficiency of local government ................................................................. 15 6. THE ECONOMY ............................................................................................................. 18 6.1 Trends in Output and Employment ....................................................................................... 18 6.2 Structural Analysis of Economy ............................................................................................. 20 6.3 Relative advantages of George Economy .............................................................................. 24 6.4 Economic Stability ................................................................................................................. 26 6.5 Poverty .................................................................................................................................. 29 6.5.1 People Living in Poverty .................................................................................................................. 29 6.5.2 Access to Basic Services .................................................................................................................. 29 6.6 Income Inequality .................................................................................................................. 30 6.7 Environmental Impact of Economy ....................................................................................... 31 6.8 Decent Jobs ........................................................................................................................... 32 7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 33 8. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 35 1. Introduction This is the second annual revision of the comprehensive economic profile for George Municipality, compiled in early 2012. The 2012 version of this profile was the first of its kind to include the previously District Managed Area (DMA) of Uniondale and surrounding rural settlements. This change in geographical demarcation should be taken into account when making comparisons with previous profiles. This 2014 revision specifically included updated population figures following Census 2011 and expanded social development data on the area. Economic data (heading 6) has been updated in the 2015 revision to reflect economic trends up to and including 2013. The George Municipal area falls within the Eden District, the third largest district economy in the Western Cape, after the City of Cape Town and the Cape Winelands District. The Eden District is also geographically the third-largest district within the Western Cape Province. This district is informally known as the Garden Route, with the city of George, its hub, nestled among the slopes of the majestic Outeniqua Mountains and flanked by the Indian Ocean. George enjoys the strategic advantage of being situated on the major transport routes between Cape Town in the south and Port Elizabeth in the east. This creates investment opportunities, particularly with regard to manufacturing, logistics and warehousing. The municipal area is 5190.43 km² in extent and the municipal area includes the following: City of George, villages of Wilderness and Herold’s Bay, various coastal resorts such as Kleinkrantz and Victoria Bay, rural areas such as the area around Rondevlei (east of Wilderness), Geelhoutboom, Herold, Hansmoeskraal and Waboomskraal, as well as Uniondale and Haarlem. The municipal area is demarcated as follows: Map 1: George Municipal Area Page 1 There is a strong reciprocal relationship between the social, environmental and governance development dimensions and economic development. For instance social factors such as education and health have a pronounced influence on economic development in a local area influencing the availability and quality of labour and entrepreneurship within an area. Likewise the state of the environment can influence the local economic system through its impact on social indicators (e.g. air pollution impacting on health and productivity) or directly through the impact on soil health and agricultural productivity. The level of growth on the other hand has a strong influence on resources available for spending on health and education within an area. The quality of the other development dimensions therefore has a direct influence on local economic outcomes. Due to the interrelatedness of the economic sphere with social, environmental and governance issues, the first sections of the economic development profile will include a summarised overview of these spheres as well as provide an overview of the demographic context. The second part of the report will focus on an analysis of the economy of George at the hand of performance in terms of economic objectives. Although the interest is mainly in long term trends within the economy, this revision allows for a comparison in year-on-year changes from 2010 to 2013 (the latest available GVA data). 2. Demographics 2.1 Population size and growth The population growth of the Eden District has been very consistent from 2001 to 2011. The average population growth rate from 2001 until 2011 is 2.36%. Currently Eden’s population is growing slower than the Provincial Population (2.56%) but faster than the national average of 1.45%. George as the regional hub shows a higher growth rate, calculated at 2.63% for the period 2001 to 2011 – mainly due to high levels of in-migration. In 2011 the population in George constitutes 3.33% of the Provincial total and 33.73% of the Eden District’s total population. Table 1: Total population George Municipality 1996 to 2011 (2011 demarcations) 1996 2001 2011 South Africa 40,340,334 44,816,888 51,770,562 Western Cape 3,936,524 4,523,705 5,822,732 Eden District Municipal Area 378,305 454,58 9 574,264 George Municipal Area 119,70 5 149,35 5 193,672 (Source: Quantec 2014) For purposes of these calculations only official Census figures are utilized. It should be noted that the 2007 Community survey showed a reduction in population in the George area, but these figures were always questionable. The Census 2011 figures are much closer to the historically estimated population figures. In terms of number of households the Page 2 Census 2011 figures show 53 522 households in the George Municipal area, at an average size of 3.6 per household. The figures further show that 88.7% of the George population resides within urban areas. Although the total population numbers are important, a