An Assessment of Political Shocks: Considering the Domestic and International Consequences Item Type text; Electronic Dissertation Authors Gordell, Kelly Marie Citation Gordell, Kelly Marie. (2021). An Assessment of Political Shocks: Considering the Domestic and International Consequences (Doctoral dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA). Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction, presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 26/09/2021 07:22:04 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/658619 AN ASSESSMENT OF POLITICAL SHOCKS: CONSIDERING THE DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL CONSEQUENCES by Kelly Marie Gordell _______________________________________ Copyright © Kelly Marie Gordell 2021 A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC POLICY In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 2021 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Throughout my time in graduate school, I have come to know many amazing people I owe thanks for making this dissertation project and my graduate career possible. First, to my advisor Tom Volgy, thank you for always having confidence in me. Since day one, you have put your trust in me and my ability, and I am especially grateful for that. I am proud of the work we have done, and I look forward to our future endeavors. To my committee members, Faten Ghosn and Pat Willerton, thank you for all your continued support over the years. Faten, I must admit when you are right, you are right! Thank you for always looking out for me and for your encouragement in everything I have taken on. Pat, the amount of energy and zest you bring is unmatched! Thank you for your enthusiasm in my work and for constantly pushing me to go further. To those that have been there through countless days and nights to offer friendship, guidance, and ultimately a source of laughter as grad school requires a sense of humor to make it through. Emily Bell, Paul Bezerra, Tiffany Chu, Mike Duvall, Maria Hardman, Leah Pieper, Joshua Ridenour, Elizabeth Schmitt, and Isabel Williams. All fantastic people. A special thanks to my mother, Nancy, who has been my biggest supporter in life. Without her, I would not have accomplished all that I have. Mom, I appreciate you more than words can convey. Finally, to all the animals that have been in my life over the years and have provided comfort and love (and often used me for treats): Tigi, Nightmare, Romeo, Bebe, and Honey. All amazing, all distinct, all loved. A special nod to Bebe, for whom this dissertation is also dedicated. A goofy tuxedo cat that I could easily describe as the sweetest, most curious kitty. I adopted you when you were just shy of two years old in December 2016. I had you for only four years, and you were such a trooper when we got the cancer diagnosis. When I lost you in January 2021, I also lost a critical part of myself. You reminded me always to be curious and never to stop being my stubborn and often unconventional self. Thank you for being the best company and support. 4 DEDICATION In memory of Bebe – my best friend, my heart, and the quirkiest kitty I was lucky enough to know. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................... 7 LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................ 8 ABSTRACT .................................................................................................. 10 CHAPTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................... 11 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 11 1.2 Chapter Breakdown ............................................................... 14 CHAPTER 2 Literature Review and Focus of Stability ............................. 18 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 18 2.2 Reviewing the Literature on Political Shocks ....................... 25 2.3 Back to Basics: Defining Political Shocks and Stability ....... 41 2.3.1 Defining Political Shocks .......................................... 41 2.3.2 Incorporating Stability ............................................... 44 2.3.3 Illustrating with Stability and the Option of Events .. 63 2.4 Conclusion ............................................................................. 72 CHAPTER 3 Political Shock Framework and Hypotheses ........................ 74 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 74 3.2 Incorporating a Security Context .......................................... 77 3.3 Political Shock Framework ................................................... 88 CHAPTER 4 Empirical Assessment of Political Shock Dynamics ............ 109 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 109 4.2 Capturing Actual Political Shocks ........................................ 110 4.3 Analysis of External Dynamics – Interstate Conflict ............ 115 4.3.1 Data, Measurement, and Methodology ..................... 115 4.3.2 Results and Discussion .............................................. 125 4.4 Analysis of Internal Dynamics – Human Rights ................... 132 4.4.1 Data, Measurement, and Methodology ..................... 132 4.4.2 Results and Discussion .............................................. 139 CHAPTER 5 Conclusion ............................................................................ 150 5.1 Broader Contributions ........................................................... 150 5.2 Existing Limitations .............................................................. 152 5.3 Future Directions ................................................................... 154 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS – Continued APPENDIX A ..................................................................................... 162 A.1 Summary of the Fund For Peace’s Fragile States Index ....... 162 A.2 Summary of the Economist’s Political Stability Index ......... 163 APPENDIX B ..................................................................................... 164 B.1 Political Shock Validation – Sample of 125 Cases ............... 164 APPENDIX C ..................................................................................... 173 C.1 Militarized Interstate Disputes – All New Negative Binomial Regressions ............................................................ 173 C.2 Militarized Interstate Disputes – All Ongoing Negative Binomial Regressions ............................................................ 174 C.3 Militarized Interstate Disputes – All New Poisson Regressions ............................................................................ 175 C.4 Militarized Interstate Disputes – All Ongoing Poisson Regressions ............................................................................ 176 C.5 Militarized Interstate Disputes – New Severe Poisson Regressions ............................................................................ 177 C.6 Militarized Interstate Disputes – Ongoing Severe Poisson Regressions ............................................................................ 178 APPENDIX D ..................................................................................... 179 D.1 Aggregate and Individual Human Rights Ordered-Logit Regressions, with Civil War ................................................. 179 D.2 Aggregate and Individual Human Rights – Domestic Unrest Conditional Ordered-Logit Regressions, with Civil War ..... 180 D.3 Aggregate and Individual Human Rights – Neighborhood Unrest Conditional Ordered-Logit Regressions, with Civil 181 War ........................................................................................ REFERENCES .............................................................................................. 182 7 LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Phases of the Punctuated Equilibrium Model ................................................ 65 2.2 Translating the Phases of the Punctuated Equilibrium Model ...................... 67 2.3 Working Dynamics Between Actual/Potential Political Shock Events ......... 70 3.1 Political Shock Framework ........................................................................... 90 8 LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Characteristics of Political Shocks Across the Literature ............................. 31 2.2 Examples of Shocks Within International Relations Research ..................... 36 2.3 Summarizing Approaches of Concept to Measurement of Stability ............. 56 2.4 Overview of the Factors of Stability .............................................................. 60 3.1 Summary of State Security ............................................................................ 81 3.2 Dimensions of Human Security ..................................................................... 85 3.3 Comparison of Traditional and Human Security ........................................... 87 4.1 Factors of Stability ......................................................................................... 111 4.2 List of Major Powers/Regional Powers and Associated Decades ................. 122 4.3 Summary Statistics for the Conflict