Vulnerability of Communities to Climate Variability and Extremes: The Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed in the Philippines Juan M. Pulhin, Rose Jane J. Peras, Rex Victor O. Cruz, Rodel D. Lasco, Florencia B. Pulhin, and Maricel A. Tapia University of the Philippines Los Baños AIACC Working Paper No. 44 October 2006 Direct correspondence to: Juan Pulhin, [email protected] An electronic publication of the AIACC project available at www.aiaccproject.org AIACC Working Papers Distributed by: The AIACC Project Office International START Secretariat 2000 Florida Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20009 USA www.aiaccproject.org AIACC Working Papers, published on-line by Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), is a series of papers and paper abstracts written by researchers participating in the AIACC project. 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For more information about the AIACC project, and to obtain copies of other papers published in AIACC Working Papers, please visit our website at www.aiaccproject.org. Vulnerability of Communities to Climate Variability and Extremes: Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed in the Philippines1 Juan M. Pulhin, Rose Jane J. Peras, Rex Victor O. Cruz, Rodel D. Lasco, Florencia B. Pulhin, and Maricel A. Tapia Environmental Forestry Programme College of Forestry and Natural Resources University of the Philippines Los Baños College, Laguna 4031 Philippines 1.0 Introduction Apart from intraseasonal and interannual variability in climate, extreme weather events such as cyclones, prolonged dry spells and intense rainfall are known to cause adverse effects such as droughts and floods in tropical Asia. The 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) warned that a higher frequency of intense extreme events all across Asia is possible as a result of the projected global warming. In the Philippines, watershed areas are believed to be among those to be adversely affected by climate change. Watersheds are critical to the economic development and environmental protection and therefore key to the pursuit of sustainable development. More than 70% of the country’s total land area lies within watersheds. Much of the remaining natural forests that provide a host of environmental services are located in 1 The research reported in this paper was supported by grant number AS21 from Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), a project that is funded by the Global Environment Facility, the Canadian International Development Agency, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and co-executed on behalf of the United Nations Environment Programme and by the Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training and The Academy of Sciences for the Developing World. Correspondence regarding this paper should be directed to Juan Pulhin, [email protected]. 1 these areas. Also, it is estimated that no less than 1.5 million hectares of agricultural lands presently derive irrigation water from these watersheds. Moreover, around 20 to 24 million people –close to one-third of the country’s total population – inhabit the uplands of many watersheds majority of whom depend on its resources for survival. Previous studies relevant to climate change in watershed areas have focused on the biophysical aspects (see for instance Jose et al., 1996). Completely lacking are studies that delve into the human dimension of climate change in these areas. In particular, there is hardly information on the impacts of climate change on local communities inhabiting these watersheds. Even more limited is the knowledge on the vulnerability of these communities to climate variability and extremes and their coping mechanism to minimize the adverse impacts of these phenomena. This paper hopes to fill this gap. It synthesizes the results of pioneering research on the vulnerability of local communities to climate variability and extremes within the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed located in Northern Philippines. The focus is on the local scale, that is, on households and communities living within the watershed. Specifically, the study sought to answer the following questions: • What are the major natural occurrences experienced by the local communities in Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed that reflect climate variability and extremes over the last few decades? • Who are the vulnerable groups in the communities and where in the watershed are they located? 2 • What is the extent and nature of their vulnerability in relation to climate variability and extremes? • What socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of the different groups? • What conclusions could be drawn from the Philippine experience that could help advance the current state of knowledge and policies relevant to the vulnerability of local communities to climate variability and extremes? The paper is divided into five major sections. Following this brief introduction, the next section outlines the key concepts and analytical frame that guide the assessment of the present vulnerability of watershed households and communities to climate variability and extremes. Section three presents a description of the study area, while section four discusses the research methodology employed. Section five then presents the key findings of the study highlighting the extent and nature of vulnerability of watershed households and communities and the factors that influence their vulnerability. The paper concludes by pointing out key research and policy measures that could help advance the body of knowledge and improve policy to reduce the vulnerability of communities in watershed areas, as well as the other vulnerable groups, to climate variability and extremes. 2.0 Analytical Framework Vulnerability is one of the key terms in the climate change literature that has many different definitions and subject to various interpretations and usage. A number of authors have reviewed the various definitions and approaches to vulnerability in relation 3 to climate change (see for instance Cutter, 1996; Adger, 1999; UNEP, 2001; Brooks, 2003). Despite this, confusion appears to continue and the term seems to defy consensus usage (Few, 2003). This paper views vulnerability as the likelihood of households and communities in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed to suffer harm and their ability to respond to stresses resulting from the impacts of climate variability and extremes. This conceptualization is consistent with Moss et al. (1999) who view vulnerability to be a function of at least two major variables: sensitivity of the system to climate-related events and its coping capacity. Climate variability refers to the variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2001). It may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability) or to variation in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). Meanwhile, a climate extreme is an event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place (Gray, 2000). By definition, its characteristics vary from place to place. Gray (2000) further refers to it as an event that exceeds the average of a number of weather events over a certain period of time (e.g., rainfall over a season). For the purpose of this study and in consideration of the climatic type in the study area, the occurrence of the following climate variability and extremes were assessed: El 4 Nino, La Nina, early onset or delay of rainy season, prolonged rains, and occurrence of typhoons. At the operational level, the nature and degree of people’s vulnerability to the