UK £2 Issue 214, Year 5 July 14, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com US-Iran Europe’s Mediating showdown inadequate Sudan’s refugee policies transition Pages 4-6 Page 6 Page 11 Erdogan strikes defiant posture but crisis looms with US over Russian missile system ► If Turkey was to cancel the deal with Russia, Putin would ask Turkey to leave Syria, potentially allowing the creation of a “statelet” run by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units. Thomas Seibert cancel the purchase by July 31 or be dropped from the F-35 programme. Soner Cagaptay, of the Washing- Istanbul ton Institute for Near East Policy, said the S-400 “is about to cause urkey is facing the big- what could be the greatest crisis gest crisis in its relations in US-Turkish relationship in more with the United States in than four decades.” T decades over an arms deal “My fear is that — if the US-Turk- with Russia but is determined to go ish relationship were to crash to- ahead with it, analysts said. day — it would take an even longer Implementing a $2.5 billion time for the relationship to be reset agreement, Moscow began deliv- and perhaps that reset could never ery July 12 of two batteries of its come,” Cagaptay said by e-mail. S-400 air defence system to Tur- The S-400 agreement fanned key. Antonov cargo planes from concerns in the West that Turkey Russia landed at Murted Air Base was moving closer to Russia. Ca- near Ankara, a video published by gaptay and other analysts said Turkey’s Defence Ministry on Twit- Moscow is looking for opportuni- ter showed. ties to weaken NATO. Russia is The United States has threatened “driving a wedge between Turkey sanctions against Turkey under a and the United States,” he said. law that punishes significant arms Aykan Erdemir, a senior fel- trade with Russia and is preparing low at the Foundation for Defense to end Ankara’s participation in the of Democracies, a think-tank in programme to build and deploy Washington, said Erdogan’s think- Could be trouble. A Russian military cargo plane carrying the S-400 missile defence system from the F-35 fighter jet. Reports said ing was based on “the mistaken as- Russia to the Murted military airbase, in Ankara, Turkey, July 12. (AFP) the Pentagon was taking steps to sumption that his personal rapport remove Turkey from the F-35-pro- with Trump can shield him from a ing the creation of a “statelet” run from Russia. deal. Laws in Washington meant gramme. range of US sanctions.” by the Kurdish People’s Protec- “Turkey will face real and nega- that “the US implements — with or US officials said they fear Russia “Erdogan assumes that Trump is tion Units militia, seen as a ter- tive consequences if they accept without Trump’s blessing — a num- could use the S-400 in Turkey to an all-powerful ruler who can dic- rorist group by Ankara, Cagaptay the S-400. Those consequences ber of punitive measures against improve the system’s abilities to tate his will regardless of Congress said. Russia could also give the include participation in the F-35 Turkey’s move to acquire military track Western planes. NATO also and US laws,” Erdemir wrote in an go-ahead for an offensive against programme,” US State Department hardware from a sanctioned Rus- said it was concerned. e-mail. Syria’s rebel-held Idlib province, spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus sian entity,” he wrote. Investors in Turkey have been “Ultimately, US-Turkish security triggering a new wave of refugees said. She also said Turkish officials “The US president could use his unsettled by the deal. Following and defence sector cooperation into Turkey. were fully aware of CAATSA. prerogatives to try to mitigate the news of the S-400’s arrival, the will be undermined for years, if not On the other hand, Turkey is Ankara responded by warning crisis by softening or slowing down Turkish lira weakened and the for decades, to come. facing US sanctions if Ankara de- the United States against taking the some of the measures but would main Istanbul share index fell. Cagaptay said it was possible Er- ploys the S-400. Turkey could face “wrong steps.” not be able to block them fully.” Turkish President Recep Tayy- dogan realised “he’s made a bad two sets of sanctions: exclusion “There is a pretty severe anti- “For this crisis in the making, Er- ip Erdogan, after meeting with decision” by buying the S-400 but from the F-35 project and punitive Turkey mood” in Congress, Ca- dogan has no one but his misguid- US President Donald Trump last the Turkish president was in a bind. measures under the Countering gaptay said. Trump and Erdogan ed policies to blame,” Erdemir said. month, said he was confident Tur- If Turkey was to cancel the deal America’s Adversaries Through could “find ways to mitigate this key would not face sanctions for with Russia, Russian President Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which crisis,” however. Erdemir voiced Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly buying the S-400 despite the Pen- Vladimir Putin would ask Turkey mandates sanctions for any “sig- scepticism about the idea that the correspondent. tagon formally telling Ankara to to leave Syria, potentially allow- nificant” purchases of weapons two leaders could hammer out a P2 US sanctions on Hezbollah to carry long-term impact in Lebanon, Middle East Sami Moubayed parallel with its military programme, political scene, due to his sensitive Or what if it targets Hezbollah cab- West who say that civilian members in 1992. position as head of the country’s inet ministers and their allies in the of Hezbollah, such as Raad, Sherri Raad serves on the party’s Execu- legislative branch and the might of Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, put- and Safa, who never carried arms Beirut tive Council and often as a personal the Shia street that he co-commands ting the entire Lebanese government but believe in the party’s doctrine, representative of Hezbollah Secre- with Nasrallah. in jeopardy? cannot be considered “terrorists.” part from its symbolism, tary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Raad Like many Shia politicians in Iraq, Hezbollah has two members Germany is of this view, drawing a the sanctioning of three heads Hezbollah’s bloc in parlia- Berri has brilliantly managed to in the Hariri cabinet: Youth and clear line between Hezbollah’s politi- top Hezbollah officials by ment, which includes 13 MPs. remain close both to Iran and the Sports Minister Muhammad Fneish cal and military wing and, until last A the United States carries no Sherri, 63, is far less known, hav- United States, positioning himself and Parliamentary Affairs Minister March, so was Great Britain. Hariri immediate or short-term substantial ing served in parliament since 2005. as an intermediary and stability Mamoud Komati. A third affiliate, relies on this argument to explain effect, given that none of the black- Safa is the most influential, being guarantor. If he was earmarked for who is not an official party mem- himself in the United States when listed names travels to the United one of the co-founders of Hezbollah sanctions, then nobody in Lebanon ber, is Jamal Jabak, the minister of asked why Hezbollah has been ad- States or owns property across the and a long-time friend and confidant is safe, not even Lebanese President health. If any of them are blacklisted, equately represented on all his cabi- Atlantic. of Nasrallah. Michel Aoun, who relied on Hezbol- sanctions would badly affect the sec- nets since 2009. This is just the beginning, howev- US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lah support to reach Baabda Palace tors in which they work — in Jabak’s A third option that ought to be con- er, of where the Trump administra- said the blacklist aims at containing three years ago, or Prime Minister case, affecting medicine, hospitals sidered is how Hezbollah will react tion seems to be heading with Iran Hezbollah’s “corrupting influence” Saad Hariri, who appointed two Hez- and clinics — in addition to the entire to the US sanctions. What if it drags and its various proxies in the Middle in Lebanon. He added that the men bollah ministers to his government. legislative branch. the entire country into a confronta- East. If expanded horizontally across had “exploited their positions to If Hariri or whoever succeeds tion with the United States, claim- the Lebanese political spectrum or smuggle illegal goods into Lebanon, This is just the him as prime minister tries to force ing more sensitive portfolios such as vertically within the party itself, it pressure Lebanese financial institu- Hezbollah ministers out of office, education, for example, economy or can become quite dangerous — and tions to assist Hezbollah.” beginning, however, of the cabinet would fall — literarily electricity, subjecting those sectors painful — for all of Lebanon. Pompeo has been pushing for such where the Trump overnight — becoming “unconstitu- to US sanctions as well? For now, the sanctions only limit action since his March visit to Beirut. administration seems to tional.” Ignoring Hezbollah would be Much of that depends on how far the financial transactions and travel He called on the Lebanese state to be heading with Iran and impossible and so would squeezing the Trump administration will go abilities of MPs Muhammad Raad end its support for Hezbollah and its various proxies in the its members out of office or learning in what remains of its tenure and and Amin Sherri and of Wafiq Safa, threatened action against those who Middle East.