UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO FACOLTÀ DI SCIENZE POLITICHE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN SOCIAL, ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SCIENCES DIPARTIMENTO DI STUDI SOCIALI E POLITICI CORSO DI DOTTORATO DI RICERCA IN STUDI POLITICI, CICLO XXIII UNDERSTANDING ISLAMIST MODERATION: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TURKISH ISLAMIST PARTIES FROM THE NOP TO THE JDP Settore Scientifico-Disciplinare: SPS/04 SCIENZA POLITICA BERNA YILMAZ TUTOR: FABIO FRANCHINO COORDINATORE DEL DOTTORATO: MARCO GIULIANI ANNO ACCADEMICO 2010-2011 Acknowledgements This work is dedicated to my father Ismail Yilmaz to whom I owe my sense of curiosity, love of science and adventure. It would not have been possible to write this doctoral thesis without the moral support of my husband Tomaso Lupo Maggioni, my mother Nurgul Kararli and my mother-in-law Licia Faconti Maggioni who have been continuous sources of inspiration and motivation throughout the process. I also owe sincere and earnest thankfulness to my supervisor Prof. Fabio Franchino as well as to Prof. Simten Cosar and Prof. Alessia Damonte for their academic support, guidance and encouragement. Besides, I would like to thank also my colleagues Dr.Andrea Ceron and Levent Ersoz for their useful comments and technical support. 2 ABSTRACT The present dissertation takes issue with the ideological moderation of Islamist political parties, and tries to develop an explanatory model regarding the domestic conditions of such party ideological repositioning by drawing on the empirical evidence coming from the Islamist parties in Turkey. The research design consists of a longitudinal comparative study of six Islamist political parties that appeared on the Turkish political scene, and covers a time period of approximately three decades (1970-2001). The comparison, which is conducted using both historical comparative and statistical methods, aims at assessing the contribution of three distinct, yet interrelated factors to the ideological moderation of the Turkish Islamist movement in the late 1990s, which culminated into the birth of the Justice and Development Party. These factors are the socio-economic transformation of the Islamist constituency, the repressive policies of the Turkish state vis-à-vis Islamist political actors, and the exposure of these actors to moderating influences emanating from democratic institutions and practices. Through an in-depth examination of the ideological evolution of the Islamist parties in the above-mentioned period, a number of intervening variables that mediated between these factors and the outcome of ideological moderation are identified including the antagonistic relations between the secular state and Islamist businesses, the changing role of Islam in the official ideology of the Turkish state and the shifts in the distribution of power inside Islamist parties as they are manifested in changes in leadership and the dominant faction. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................ 6 LIST OF TABLES.................................................................................................. 7 LIST OF APPENDICES ........................................................................................ 7 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 9 Structure of the thesis ................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND LITERATURE: THEORIES OF PARTY CHANGE ........... 19 1. Party Change as an Evolutionary Process ................................................ 20 1a. The Rise and Demise of Party Organizational Types ............................. 20 1b. Political Parties and Social Cleavage Structures .................................... 22 2. Party Change as a Discontinuous Event................................................... 23 CHAPTER 2 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY................................................ 27 1. Research Design ....................................................................................... 27 2. Methodology ............................................................................................. 28 CHAPTER 3 TURKISH ISLAMIST POLITICAL PARTIES AT THE INTERSECTION OF POLITICAL ISLAM AND DEMOCRACY ....................................................... 33 1. Islamist Parties, Democracy and Moderation ........................................... 33 1a. Political Islam and Democracy.............................................................. 33 1b. Classifying Islamist Political Parties ..................................................... 36 1c. What is Islamist moderation? ................................................................ 38 2. Islamically-Oriented Political Parties in Turkey: A Short Historical Overview ....................................................................................................... 39 3. Change and Continuity in the Ideological Platforms of Turkish Islamist Parties........................................................................................................... 45 3a. National Order Party (1970-1971)......................................................... 45 3b. National Salvation Party (1972-1980) ................................................... 46 3c. Welfare Party (1983-1998).................................................................... 48 3d. Virtue Party (1997-2001) ...................................................................... 51 3e. Justice and Development Party (2001-present) ...................................... 53 3f. Felicity Party (2001-present).................................................................. 55 CHAPTER 4 THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASES OF ISLAMIST MODERATION .............. 57 1. Introduction .............................................................................................. 57 2. Poverty and Political Islam: Theoretical Overview................................... 58 3. Social Bases of Turkish Islamist Parties Compared ................................. 63 4. Data and Model Specification................................................................... 70 5. Empirical Results...................................................................................... 72 6. Conservative Middle Classes and Islamist Moderation............................. 81 6a. Bourgeoisie and Democracy: Modernization Theory Revisited ............. 81 4 6b. Ideological Journey of MUSIAD: from Political Islam to Conservative Democracy ................................................................................................. 84 7. Conclusion................................................................................................ 88 Appendix A ................................................................................................... 91 CHAPTER 5 ISLAMIST MODERATION AND STATE REPRESSION ............................... 93 1. Introduction .............................................................................................. 93 2. The Secular State and Islamist Parties ..................................................... 94 2a. The Legal Framework of Islamist Party Closures .................................. 94 2b. 1971 Memorandum and NOP’s Closure................................................ 96 2b1. The Process of NOP’s Closure ...................................................... 96 2b2. State-Islam Relations in the early 1970s........................................ 98 2c. 1980 Military Intervention and NSP’s Closure .................................... 104 2c1. The Process of NSP’s Closure ..................................................... 104 2c2. The Redefinition of State Secularism after the 1980 Coup ........... 106 2d. February 28 “Post-modern” coup d’état and WP’s Closure ................. 109 2d1. The Process of WP’s Closure ...................................................... 109 2d2. State-Islam Relations after the February 28 Decisions: From Mutual Accommodation to Open Confrontation.............................................. 113 3. Conclusion.............................................................................................. 114 Appendix B ................................................................................................. 116 CHAPTER 6 POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, MODERATION AND INTRA-PARTY POLITICS .......................................................................................................... 119 1. Introduction ............................................................................................ 119 2. Participation-Moderation Nexus: Theoretical Overview......................... 120 3. Extant Applications to the Turkish Case................................................. 126 4. Turkish Islamist Parties in the Democratic Game from a Comparative Perspective .................................................................................................. 129 4a. The Empirical Puzzle .......................................................................... 129 4b. Internal Dynamics of Party Transformation: Changes in Leadership and Dominant Faction(s) ................................................................................. 133 4c. The Organizational Evolution and Changing Power Structures of Turkish Islamist Parties ......................................................................................... 138 5. Conclusion.............................................................................................