NSF 66-3 WEATHER AN CLIMATE MODIFICATION Repori 01 ine SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MOIJIFICATION NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION WEAMER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION Repori 01 me SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIRCATION NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION LETTER OF The Honorable Leland J. Haworth Much of the background work for the Director treatment of the other aspects of the National Science Foundation problem was carried out under RANSMITTAL Washington, D. C. National Science Foundation grants or contracts, reports of which research Dear Dr. Haworth: and study are to be published as It is an honor to transmit herewith stated in the Appendix. to the National Science Foundation The Commission held eleven the report of the Special Commission meetings supplemented by many days on Weather Modification, authorized of study, research, writing and by the National Science Board at its conferences. The Commission report meeting on October 17-18, 1963, in has been prepared by and its content accordance with Sections 3(a)(7) and is concurred in by all the members 9 of the National Science Foundation of the Commission. Act of 1950, as amended, and The Commission was assisted appointed by you on June 16, 1964. throughout its deliberations by an The Commission was requested to Executive Secretary. Dr. Edward P. examine the physical, biological, legal, Todd served in this capacity during social, and political aspects of the field the early months. Mr. Jack C. and make recommendations concern­ Oppenheimer succeeded Dr. Todd ing future policies and programs. and has done an outstanding job of The physical science aspects have assisting the Commission. been studied primarily through Respectfully submitted, cooperative liaison with the National A. R. Chamberlain, Chairman Academy of Sciences' Panel on Vice President Weather and Climate Modification. Colorado State University December 20, 1965 I" The Commission was established Leonid Hurwicz SPECIAL pursuant to Section 3(a)(7) and 9 of Department of Economics the National Science Foundation Act University of Minnesota of 1950, as amended. Thomas F. Malone, COMMISSION The names and affiliations of the Second Vice President Research Department Commission members are: Travelers Insurance Company ON A. R. Chamberlain, Chairman Arthur W. Murphy Vice President, Colorado State University Columbia University School of Law WEATHER Sumner T. Pike John Bardeen, Vice Chairman Lubec, Maine Departments of Physics and Electrical MODIFICATION Engineering William S. von Arx University of Illinois Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic William C. Colman, Institution Executive Director Gilbert F. White Advisory Commission on Department of Geography Intergovernmental Relations University of Chicago John C. Dreier Karl M. Wilbur School of Advanced International Studies Department of Zoology The Johns Hopkins University Duke University iv LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL .............................. �iii SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION�iv HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ............................1 SUMMARY.............................................7 Introduction�........................................ 7 ONTENT$ Scientific Possibilities ...............................11 Biological Implications ............................... 18 The Social Effects .....................................20 TheLaw ........................................... 23 Needs and Opportunities for International Cooperation ... 26 Fiscal and Organizational Considerations ...............29 PROGRESS AND PROSPECTS IN WEATHER AND CLiMATE MODIFICATION ....................................34 Introduction .................................... 34 The Nature of the Scientific Problem ............... 34 Present Status of Weather Modification ............. 38 Accomplishments of the National Science Foundation Program ................................... 43 Activities in Foreign Countries .................... 47 Perspectives for Research ........................ 50 Conclusions and Recommendations ................ 58 BIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ..... 60 Introduction .................................... 60 Means of Predicting Consequences of Weather Modifi- cation�...................................60 Predicted Biological Responses of Weather Modifica- tion.........................................65 Conclusions and Recommendations of The Ecological Society Working Group .....................69 STATISTICAL ASPECTS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION .... 71 The Present Situation .........................71 The Conferences on Statistical Methodology ........71 Conference Findings ........................... 72 Conference Recommendations ................... 73 V Precipitation-Oriented Experiments ............... 74 The Empirical Approach ......................... 75 Numerical Modeling and Simulation ............... 76 Commission Recommendations ................... 77 Footnote ...................................... 79 THE HUMAN EFFECTS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODI- FICATION ......................................... 80 Four Interlocking Systems ....................... 82 Uncertainty ................................. 84 Two Approaches to the Human Dimensions ........ 85 Broader Considerations ..................... 85 Evaluating Social Effects ...................... 86 Conflicts of Interest ............................. 90 Desirable Courses of Action ...................... 92 Recommendations .............................. 97 Footnotes...................................... 98 LEGAL AND LEGISLATIVE ASPECTS .....................100 WEATHER MODIFICATION AND INTERNATIONAL RELA- TIONS............................................. 113 International Programs Related to Weather Modifica- tion..................................... 115 International Requirements of Research ............ 117 Weather Modification and World Politics ..........118 Relation to U. S. Foreign Policy .................. 119 International Impact on U. S. Program ............. 120 Organization of Inter-Governmental Cooperation . 121 Scientific and Technical Exchange ................ 122 International Legal Problems ..................... 122 Questions of International Organization ............ 123 Recommended Basic Policy Statement ............. 124 FUNDING AND ADMINISTRATION REQUIREMENTS ....... 126 Federal Financial Support of Weather and Climate Mod- ification�.................................... 126 Administration�.................................. 130 APPENDIX............................................. 149 vi Twenty years ago General Electric not new to our era or to our country. HISTORICAL Company scientists Irving Langmuir Many traditional societies, including and Vincent Schaefer modified clouds the American Indians, have practiced by "seeding" them with dry ice pel­ some type of religious or ritualistic BACKOHOUND lets. Not long afterward Bernard Von­ rainmaking. The ceremonials and rit­ negut, a co-worker, demonstrated that uals have varied from dousing holy a smoke of silver iodide crystals men with water to burying children would accomplish the same result. up to their necks in the ground in the This was the beginning of the modern hope that the gods would be sympa­ American history of weather and cli­ thetic and drop tears from the heav ­ mate modification through cloud ens. These ceremonies are not only to seeding. induce some form of desirable weather These American scientists on No­ but also to reinforce the tribal reli­ vember 13, 1946, had verified experi­ gious beliefs and opinions which mentally the theory advanced in 1933 maintain social unity. by the Swedish meteorologist, Tor Through ancient and modern times Bergeron, and the German physicist, many methods have been proposed Walter Findeisen, that clouds would and attempted to induce or to aid precipitate if they contained the right rainfall. Two U. S. Government pat­ mixture of ice crystals and super­ ents on methods of rainmaking were cooled water drops. The Bergeron- issued before the turn of the 20th Findeisen theory was antedated by century based, respectively, upon the the work of the Dutch scientist, Au­ production of carbon dioxide by ex­ gust Veraart. The enthusiastic reports pending "liquified carbonic acid gas" by Veraart of his 1930 experiments and upon concussion by the detona­ with dry ice and supercooled water-ice tion of explosives. Interestingly in Holland were not well received by enough the long since expired patent, the Dutch scientific community, and based on the production of carbon thus were given no serious considera­ dioxide in the form of dry ice, antici­ tion elsewhere. pated the cloud seeders of today. The Weather and climate modification, pioneering field and laboratory work or "rainmaking" (the more popular of meteorologists in the War and Navy and also more restricted concept), is Departments on the popular notion 1 that rainfall could be caused by the Whether or not the multi-million detonation of explosives was sup­ dollar commercial rainmaking activi­ ported by Federal Government funds. ties of the late 1940's and early 1950's Even social, political and legal con­ grew out of the obvious interest of the flicts over weather and climate modi­ Federal Government in weather and fication are not new. In 1916 San climate modification research or the Diego's employment of a rainmaker, coincidental severe drought conditions resulting in claims of loss of life and in some parts of the nation, relatively property damage of a million dollars, vast operations became a fact of life. anticipated by