THE ISBA BULLETIN Vol. 10 No. 4 December 2003 The o±cial bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis APARTING MESSAGE FROM THE each seen the stunning potential of Bayesian meth- PRESIDENT ods in our own work and experience. We are seeing the continued success and evolution of Bayesian by Ed George methods in theory and in applications across an ISBA President ever widening variety of fields. And yet surpris- [email protected] ingly, our membership has very diverse views on It has been a profound honor to serve as President what even constitutes Bayesian Analysis. Some of of ISBA for 2003. I would like to begin my part- us lean towards subjective purism, others towards ing Bulletin message by congratulating and wel- objective pragmatism. Some of us eschew any- coming our new leaders, President Elect Sylvia thing non-Bayesian, while others are eclectic, us- Richardson, Executive Secretary Deborah Ashby, ing Bayesian methods where and when it suits their and Board Members Brad Carlin, Merlise Clyde, needs. John Higdon and David Madigan. And a very But this diversity of views is our strength, es- special welcome to Heidi Sestrich who, I am de- pecially in our climate of camaraderie and mu- lighted to announce, has agreed to be the Admin- tual respect. The spirit of inclusiveness that per- istrative Director of ISBA. I would also like to bid vades ISBA provides an endless stream of energy a fond farewell to our departing Past President for debate and an environment where new ideas David Draper, Executive Secretary Cindy Chris- can easily rise and flourish. ISBA has become a tiansen and Board Members Nicky Best, Eduardo source of both intellectual stimulation and enor- Gutierrez-Pena, Tony O’Hagan and Raquel Prado. mous pleasure. The future of Bayesian Analysis Your dedication and hard work for ISBA have been looks brighter than ever, and we can all take great most gratefully appreciated by all. satisfaction in our contributions to nourishing this As ISBA’s 11th year comes to a close, ”We” can future through ISBA. We are the champions, and I all take great pride in how far ISBA has come. congratulate you all! We now regularly sponsor, cosponsor and endorse Bayesian meetings around the world. We oversee ' $ and award the four major Bayesian prizes, the De- Contents Groot, Lindley, Mitchell and Savage Awards. We produce the Bulletin that keeps Bayesians abreast ➤ ISBA 2004 of current developments. We are in the process of ☛ Page 2 creating Bayesian Analysis, a new flagship online ➤ Interview with C.Robert journal to attract and disseminate high impact, cut- ☛ Page 4 ting edge research developments. And I use ”We” because all of this has been a most remarkable joint ➤ Applications effort: The Executive Committee, The Board of Di- ☛ Page 8 rectors, The Program Council, The Prize Commit- tees, The Bulletin Editorial Staff, the newly assem- ➤ Annotated bibliography bled Bayesian Analysis Editorial Staff, the leaders ☛ Page 9 of the local ISBA Chapters in Brazil, Chile, India ➤ Student's Corner and South Africa, and the myriad of members who ☛ Page 11 continue to participate in ISBA conference organi- zation and delivery. My deepest thanks and appre- ➤ Software review ciation to you all. I know of no other Society or ☛ Page 13 Association with such a large fraction of active and devoted contributors. ➤ News from the world ☛ Page 14 And why is this? I believe it is because we have & % ISBA Bulletin, December 2003 ISBA 2004 ISBA 2004 ² Students members of ISBA: USD 75 VINA˜ DEL MAR,CHILE ² Students non-ISBAmembers: USD 85 MAY, 23-27, 2004 Registration fees for non-ISBA members include ANNOUNCEMENTS membership for 2004. After April 15th, 2004, regis- ➤ Scientific Programme tration fees will increase as follows: ² ISBA members: USD 300 Lectures ² non-ISBA members: USD 325 Opening Lecture Dani Gamerman, ”Dynamic spa- ² Students members of ISBA: USD 125 tial models”. ² Students non-ISBA members: USD 135 Closing Lecture Xiao-Li Meng, ”Sometimes it is possible to quantify ignorance: the case of Details on the payment of the registration fees Single Observation Unbiased Priors (SOUP)”. are available on the conference web site. Social Dinner Talk Jay Kadane, ”Bayesian statis- tics: the unfinished revolution”. ➤ ISBA Bulletin Tutorials: Introductory Level Hedibert Lopes ([email protected]), Edi- ”Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling”, David Draper. tor of the ISBA Bulletin, is organizing a meeting on ”Bayesian Model Choice”, Merlise Clyde. May, 24 at lunch time to discuss the Bulletin. He ”Bayesian Computation”, Peter Mueller. would like to receive comments and suggestions Tutorials: Advanced Level on how to improve the Bulletin. ”Decision Analysis in E-democracy”, Simon French. ➤ Deadlines ”Spatial Statistic”, Alan Gelfand and Sudipto Banerjee. ”Stochastic Optimization”, Christian Robert. ² JANUARY 31, 2004. early submission of con- tributed posters Debates ² FEBRUARY 15, 2004. notification of accep- Why don’t people use genuine prior information tance of early contributed posters in Bayesian applications? ² APRIL 1, 2004. submission of contributed Speakers: Jim Berger, Phil Dawid, Pilar Igle- posters sias, Tony O’Hagan, Luis Raul Pericchi, Romano Scozzafava ² APRIL 1, 2004. registration of all people pre- Chair: Jose-Miguel Bernardo senting or submitting papers for both oral On Bayesian Exploratory Data Analysis and poster sessions Speakers: Susie Bayarri, Alicia Carriquiry, ² APRIL 15, 2004. payment of registration fees Sid Chib, Hal Stern, Sergio Wechsler, at reduced rates Mike West Chair: Ed George ➤ Contacts ➤ Registration Fees For any information please contact the Chairs of the ISBA 2004 Committees: Registration fees for the ISBA 2004 meeting are listed below Scientific: Fabrizio Ruggeri [email protected] Finance: Alicia Carriquiry [email protected] ² ISBA members: USD 200 Local: Pilar Iglesias [email protected] ² non-ISBA members: USD 225 2 ISBA Bulletin, December 2003 ISBA 2004 ISBA 2004 at Vina˜ del Mar, on May 23-27, 2004. by Fabrizio Ruggeri For those of you who do not subscribe to [email protected] bayes-news, we have prepared the list of plenary speakers and the courses and the debates we have I am glad to report that our call for sessions and organized. student papers has generated many submissions, I remind you that the poster sessions are one of more than we expected. We got 34 session pro- the most relevant part of our conferences (for sure, posals and 28 student papers, besides some con- the most lively scientific activity, since I would not tributed posters and we are expecting many others! count the final act, the “usual” cabaret, as part of We are now reviewing the submitted abstracts and the scientific programme ...) Therefore, it is now the work is quite difficult since the papers we got time to submit papers for the poster sessions! We are, in general, very interesting. I wish to thank have decided to have two deadlines for submis- all those who contributed in organizing sessions sions: January 31st (for those willing to get a quick and those who accepted to be part of them. We answer, to be used to apply for funds) and April 1st were very pleased for the number and the quality (for all the others). of papers submitted by students. As I mentioned It is worth mentioning that all contributed pa- in my comments in the previous issue of the Bul- pers selected will automatically be considered for letin, we would like to have as many students as the Lindley Prize, awarded for innovative research possible. I have to thank ISBA officers (Ed George in Bayesian statistics, whereas selected papers pre- and Peter Mueller, first of all) and the Chairs of the sented at the conference (both oral and poster pre- Finance and Local Committees (Alicia Carriquiry sentations) will be published by the new electronic and Pilar Iglesias) since they agreed to financially ISBA journal, BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, following a support more students with respect to what we an- review process to be established by the Editorial nounced earlier. At this point, we would like to or- Board of the journal. ganize 6 student sessions and we can offer the stu- As you can see, we are preparing an exciting dents free lodging, the waiver of the registration fee programme with the help of the Bayesian fellows and the 2004 ISBA membership for free. Students worldwide and you can see how it takes shape by are applying from Europe, United States and South looking at the web site: http://isba.mat.puc.cl. America and one from Australia. You can find there details on accommodation, fees The proposed sessions cover a wide range of top- (I am sorry but we have to charge you something ics, with very scarce overlapping. The reading of ...), social events and, shortly, on accepted sessions the submitted abstracts is an interesting experience and student papers. to learn what is going on in the Bayesian world and If you have to decide which conference you do I am sure that the same feeling will be shared by not want to miss in 2004, my suggestion is ... the lucky ones who will attend ISBA 2004 in Chile ISBA 2004 ways, very important. To this effect, we are prepar- by Pilar Iglesias ing a number of events that help making the most [email protected] out of the Conference and the natural beauty of Vina˜ del Mar. The local organizing committee is pleased to For further information about the ISBA 2004 invite the international scientific community to World Meeting, please point your browser to our participate in the ISBA 2004 World Meeting on web page http://isba.mat.puc.cl. Some infor- Bayesian Statistics, to be held inVinadel˜ Mar, Chile mation about the Valpara´ıso Region follows.