Resource Plan (FY2020-FY2029) JULY 2018 Resource Plan for 4th & 5th Control Period (FY 19- 20 to FY 28-29) 1 1 AP State Load forecast & Power procurement Plan for the 4th Control Period (FY 2019-20 to FY 2023-24) and 5th Control Period (FY 2024-25 to FY 2028-29) 2 2 Contents 1 STATE LOAD FORECAST AND RESOURCE PLAN OF ANDHRA PRADESH ..................................... 5 1.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 POWER FOR ALL ................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 ANDHRA PRADESH POWER SECTOR AT A GLANCE: .......................................................................................... 7 1.4 PRESENT POWER SUPPLY POSITION: .................................................................................................................. 7 1.5 CONSOLIDATED SALES AND LOAD FORECAST .................................................................................................. 8 1.5.1 Transmission Losses ..................................................................................................................................... 8 1.5.2 Off grid Solar ................................................................................................................................................ 9 1.5.3 State Level Load Factors ............................................................................................................................... 9 1.6 FORECAST FROM FY2024-25 TO FY 2028-29 .............................................................................................................. 12 1.7 COMPARISON OF LOAD FORECASTS ................................................................................................................. 13 2 POWER PROCUREMENT PLAN ..................................................................................................................... 14 2.1 INSTALLED CAPACITY FROM VARIOUS SOURCES ............................................................................................................... 14 2.1.1 APGENCO Thermal ..................................................................................................................................... 14 2.1.2 APGENCO Hydel .......................................................................................................................................... 15 2.1.3 Central Generating Stations ....................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.4 APGPCL, APDISCOM & IPP Gas ................................................................................................................... 17 2.1.5 IPP Others ................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.1.6 NCE Total .................................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2 RENEWABLE POWER PURCHASE OBLIGATIONS ............................................................................................................... 21 2.3 POWER SURPLUS /DEFICIT ANALYSIS (ENERGY (MUS) AND POWER (MW)) ........................................................................ 22 2.4 MU ANALYSIS: ......................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.4.1 MU Availability ........................................................................................................................................... 23 2.5 MU DEMAND .......................................................................................................................................................... 24 2.5.1 Energy Balance (MUs) ................................................................................................................................ 24 2.6 TIME SERIES BASED APPROACH FOR MW ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 24 2.6.1 Demand Forecast ....................................................................................................................................... 24 2.6.2 Plant Supply Forecast ................................................................................................................................. 25 2.6.3 Surplus/Deficit (MW Analysis) .................................................................................................................... 26 2.7 POWER PROCUREMENT PLAN FOR MEETING THE DEFICIT .................................................................................................. 27 3 APTRANSCO TRANSMISSION PLAN (RESOURCE PLAN) FOR THE FY 2018-19. ............................ 29 3.1 INTRODUCTION TO TRANSMISSION RESOURCE PLAN ................................................................................................... 30 3.2 TRANSMISSION RESOURCE PLAN FY 2019 .................................................................................................................... 30 3.3 THE ASSUMPTIONS AND STANDARDS ADOPTED WHILE CONDUCTING LOAD FLOW STUDIES FOR UHV (200KV AND ABOVE) ARE SHOWN BELOW. ................................................................................................................................................................. 31 3.4 CONTINGENCY CRITERIA: ............................................................................................................................................ 34 3.5 DISTRICT WISE LOAD FORECAST .................................................................................................................................... 35 3.6 EVACUATION SCHEMES AT 400 KV AND 220 KV ............................................................................................................. 36 3.7 INVESTMENT PLAN 220 KV AND 400 KV: ...................................................................................................................... 41 3.8 132 KV TRANSMISSION SYSTEM .................................................................................................................................. 42 3.9 TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS ..................................................................................................................................... 42 3.10 CONTINGENCIES ................................................................................................................................................... 52 3.11 CIRCUIT BREAKER INTERRUPTING CAPABILITY ............................................................................................................ 52 3.12 SHORT CIRCUIT STUDIES ........................................................................................................................................ 53 4 APTRANSCO TRANSMISSION PLAN (RESOURCE PLAN) FOR 4TH CONTROL PERIOD ............. 54 4.1 TRANSMISSION RESOURCE PLAN FROM FY 2019 TO FY2024 ........................................................................................... 55 3 3 THE STANDARDS ADOPTED WHILE CONDUCTING LOAD FLOW STUDIES FOR UHV (200KV AND ABOVE) ARE SHOWN IN CHAPTER 3.3 ........ 55 4.2 INVESTMENT PLAN 220 KV AND 400 KV ....................................................................................................................... 56 4.3 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM (132 KV) ............................................................................................................................... 56 4.4 TOTAL TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS ............................................................................................................................ 57 4.5 BUS REPORT FOR 2024 STUDY.............................................................................................................................. 89 4.6 LINE REPORT FOR 2024 STUDY ........................................................................................................................... 105 4.7 TRANSFORMER REPORT FOR 2024 STUDY: .................................................................................................................. 136 4.8 SHORT CIRCUIT RESULTS FOR 2024 STUDY: ................................................................................................................. 144 5 APTRANSCO TRANSMISSION PLAN (RESOURCE PLAN) FOR 5TH CONTROL PERIOD ........... 162 5.1 TRANSMISSION RESOURCE PLAN FROM FY 2025 TO FY2029 ......................................................................................... 163 THE STANDARDS ADOPTED WHILE CONDUCTING LOAD FLOW STUDIES FOR UHV (200KV AND ABOVE) ARE SHOWN IN CHAPTER 3.3 ...... 163 5.2 INVESTMENT PLAN 220 KV AND 400 KV ..................................................................................................................... 164 6 COST DATA OF TRANSMISSION LINES AND SUBSTATIONS ......................................................... 182 4 4 1 State Load forecast and Resource plan of Andhra Pradesh 1.1 Introduction The Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (APERC), Regulation 5 of 2005 directs APTRANSCO to collect and consolidate sales forecast and power procurement from distribution licensees and to file Resource Plan for Hon’ble Commission’s approval. The Resource Plan shall