MARKET STUDY FOR THE LA PALMA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE MARKET STUDY FOR THE LA PALMA GENERAL PLAN UPDATE Prepared for: HOGLE-IRELAND, INC. March 2012 ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES 300 S. Harbor Boulevard, Suite 714, Anaheim, CA 92805-3719 (714) 772-8900 FAX (714) 772-8911 ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES Table of Contents CHAPTER PAGE I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................... I-1 Economic Assessment Overview................................................ I-1 Retail Market Assessment........................................................... I-1 Lodging Market Assessment ....................................................... I-5 Medical Campus Assessment ..................................................... I-9 Opportunity Area Assessment..................................................... I-12 Opportunity Site Areas 2 and 3.............................................. I-13 Opportunity Site Area 4 Centerpointe Business Park)........... I-13 Opportunity Site Area 5 ......................................................... I-14 Opportunity Site Areas 10 and 11 (Medical Campus) ........... I-14 Opportunity Site Area 16 ....................................................... I-15 II RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT ........................................................ II-1 Retail Market Overview................................................................ II-1 City of La Palma Retail Facilities ................................................. II-2 Competitive Supply Factors......................................................... II-4 Taxable Sales Trends............................................................ II-4 Retail Establishment Representation..................................... II-7 Retail Sales Per Establishment ............................................. II-8 Competitive Retail Sales Flows ............................................. II-9 Competitive Trade Area Setting............................................. II-11 Competitive Area Retail Facilities .......................................... II-12 Market Demand Factors .............................................................. II-14 Population of Competitive Trade Area Setting....................... II-14 Consumer Characteristics of Trade Area Setting .................. II-17 Retail Expenditure Trends ..................................................... II-22 City of La Palma Retail Market Potential ..................................... II-24 Retail Anchor Potential .......................................................... II-24 Non-Anchor Retail Potential .................................................. II-26 Project-Specific Retail Potential............................................. II-28 III LODGING MARKET ASSESSMENT.................................................... III-1 Lodging Market Overview............................................................ III-1 La Palma Area Lodging Facilities ................................................ III-3 Market Demand Factors .............................................................. III-4 Population Growth................................................................. III-4 Business Activity.................................................................... III-5 Visitor Activity........................................................................ III-9 Market Supply Trends.................................................................. III-10 Room Supply ......................................................................... III-10 Hotel Occupancy................................................................... III-12 Hotel Average Daily Rates..................................................... III-13 Lodging Market Potential............................................................. III-14 Regional Demand Outlook..................................................... III-14 La Palma Area Demand Outlook ........................................... III-16 Project-Specific Lodging Potential ......................................... III-18 Market Study for the La Palma General Plan Update i ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES Table of Contents CHAPTER PAGE IV MEDICAL CAMPUS ASSESSMENT..................................................... IV-1 U.S. Healthcare Trends ............................................................... IV-2 California Hospital Trends ........................................................... IV-3 Regional Hospital Trends ............................................................ IV-4 Site Area Hospital Trends............................................................ IV-5 Patient Volume Trends .......................................................... IV-6 Outpatient Trends (Emergency and Non-Emergency) .......... IV-7 Outpatient Emergency Services Trends ................................ IV-7 Utilization Rate Trends .......................................................... IV-8 Financial Trends .................................................................... IV-10 Site Area Hospital Emergency Services...................................... IV-11 Site Area Hospital Non-Emergency Services .............................. IV-12 Site Area Hospital Patient Satisfaction Ratings........................... IV-13 La Palma Intercommunity Hospital Overview .............................. IV-14 Hospital Services................................................................... IV-14 Awards................................................................................... IV-15 Patient Volume and Occupancy Trends ................................ IV-16 Financial Trends .................................................................... IV-17 Site Area Medical Coverage Assessment ................................... IV-18 Emergency Medical Coverage............................................... IV-18 Non-Emergency Medical Coverage....................................... IV-22 Impact on Surrounding Area Land Uses...................................... IV-21 V OPPORTUNITY AREA ASSESSMENT................................................ V-1 Property Assessment Overview................................................... V-1 Priority 1 – Opportunity Areas...................................................... V-3 Site 1 – Bettencourt & Rainbow Park Areas .......................... V-4 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-4 Site 2 – Walker Street Industrial Area.................................... V-4 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-4 Site 3 – Marin Circle-Fresca Drive Industrial Area................. V-5 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-5 Site 4 – Centerpointe Business Park Site Area ..................... V-5 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-7 Site 5 – Walker Street-Orangethorpe Avenue Commercial Area (NWC) ....................................................... V-8 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-9 Site 6 – Walker Street-Orangethorpe Avenue Commercial Area (NEC) ........................................................ V-9 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-9 Sites 10 & 11 – La Palma Intercommunity Hospital Site Area V-9 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-11 Market Study for the La Palma General Plan Update ii ALFRED GOBAR ASSOCIATES Table of Contents CHAPTER PAGE V OPPORTUNITY AREA ASSESSMENT (Continued) Priority 2 – Opportunity Areas...................................................... V-11 Site 7 – Brookside Apartment Area ....................................... V-12 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-12 Site 8 – Nova Casa-La Palma Apartment Homes Area......... V-12 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-12 Site 9 – La Palma Convenience Center Site Area................. V-12 Utilization Assessment..................................................... V-13 Commercial Opportunity Areas.................................................... V-13 Site 12 – La Palma Avenue-Moody Street Site Area (NEC).. V-13 Site 13 – Family Mart-Super 1 Mart Site Area ....................... V-13 Site 14 – La Palma Avenue-Moody Street Site Area (SWC) . V-14 Site 15 – Carl’s Junior Site Area............................................ V-14 Site 16 – Walker Street-La Palma Avenue Site Area (SWC). V-14 Site 17 – Walker Street-La Palma Avenue Site Area (SEC).. V-15 Site 18 – Walker Street-Crescent Avenue Site Area (NWC) . V-15 Site 19 – Moody Street-Crescent Avenue Site Area (NEC)... V-16 Site 20 – Moody Street-Crescent Avenue Site Area (SEC)... V-16 EXHIBIT I-1 City of La Palma Opportunity Site Locations ......................................... I-16 II-1 Retail Performance Comparisons – 2009 Combined 4-City Area and Selected Geographic Regions ................... II-30 II-2 2009 Constant Dollar Per Capita Sales Trends For All Retail Store-Group Activities Excluding Auto Sales-Supplies-Fuel ................. II-31 II-3 Per Capita Sales Comparison – 2009 Combined 4-City Area Versus Southern California ............................... II-32 II-4 Retail Establishment Permit Trends For All Retail Store-Group Activities Excluding Auto Sales-Supplies-Fuel ................. II-33 II-5 Retail Establishment Representation – 2009 Permits Per 1,000 Population – Combined 4-City Area Versus Southern California