2 FORECASTS, Volume 2 │ Issue 8 │ February 2021 2 THEMES & 2 REACTIONS What does it take to Lead a Nation As we continue on, we have been in confinement due to the COVID-19 pandemic almost ten months, the year end is a good moment to reflect and evaluate everything that has been happening and how our lives have changed. For one, I, being the optimist that I am, have been trying to identify the “silver lining” within all these events. I must confess it has not been easy, but must admit that, probably, all this has forced us to do things differently. And has also forced us to leap bound and adopt new technologies and ways of doing business that probably, in our comfort zone, we had not even considered. So, for whatever it’s worth, let’s look at the positive aspect and embrace all the good things that this unfortunate event has brought us. Happy New Year and please keep safe and enjoy this issue of our Zenith Investor. Miguel L. Vargas-Jiménez Executive Director & CEO Birling Capitals' goal is to provide you with expert opinions and commentaries from all over the world to our readers with a detailed view of the economy, markets, and geopolitics. We also offer you our outlook for Puerto Rico's economic progress and the United States to allow you to plan with a 3 to 5-year window. We invite you to examine this month's insights to help you stay ahead of the curve. We thank you for your continued support. Francisco Rodríguez-Castro President & CEO Birling Capital Advisors, LLC. 2 Forecasts, 2 Themes & 2 Reactions: What does it takes to lead a Nation 1 Benchmarks for the U.S. President Biden Jan/20/21 Price Per Gallon Regular Gasoline $2.46 Dow Jones Industrial Average 31,188 As we publish The Zenith Nasdaq 13,457 Investor for February 2021, we have S&P 500 3,852 a new Governor Pedro Pierluisi and Unemployment 6.70% a fresh President, Joe Biden. Both GDP 4.00% Labor-force participation rate 61.50% elected officials have a demonstrated Home ownership rate 65.30% track record, and there are high Median household income $59,039 expectations of their respective National debt $26,700,000 tenures. Credit Ratings S&P (AA+), Moody’s (AAA), Fitch (AAA) Access to markets Full Acess Approval Rating 29 markets, credit rating, and other vital John Kerry as the climate metrics. change czar. Every 180 days, we will measure • Stops the Keystone XL President Biden's success by pipeline: revokes oil and gas comparing the movement in all these development at national wildlife variables and then discussing his monuments. success and failures. Although this is • U.S. Census to include non- not an exact science, we aim to citizens in numbers: reversing provide essential tools to measure a Trump administration order in One of the goals is to help you success. understand success and know how to July 2020 to not count recognize it; so we have dedicated undocumented Americans. This President Biden Gets Busy this issue to present you how to change would have resulted in enacting 30 Executive Orders measure a successful Presidency and changes in federal money Governorship. allocation and Congressional President Biden began his first week representation. in office enacting more than 30 Measuring the Presidency • Path to citizenship for executive orders that alter the course "Dreamers" undocumented On January 20, we watched the of action of the Federal Response to young Americans: Instructs transition of power in the United the Covid-19 pandemic, Congress to grant permanent States, albeit in a quite immigration, economic recovery, status and citizenship to unconventional manner. During the among others, and we highlight Dreamers, which are close to a swearing-in of Joe Biden as the 46th some. million young people who were president of the United States, his brought to the country as inaugural speech that followed was • The national face mask and children. an immediate change of tone and distancing mandate: in all • Stopped border wall attitude. federal properties, employees, construction: President Biden As we heard, President Biden's and contractors. ended the national emergency words proclaimed that the • The Directorate for Global declaration cited by the Trump democracy we all live in and cherish Health Security and administration to divert money is fragile and precious. With these Biodefense created a total to the southern wall building. words to the tone of the nation restructuring of the federal changed, he changed, "Today, we government coordination to the Our political leader's actions must celebrate the triumph, not of a COVID-19. reflect the people's desire to succeed candidate but a cause, the cause of • The U.S. re-joins the World democracy. The will of the people even if they do not recognize Health Organization (WHO): success. Regardless of any party has been heard, and the will of the which the Trump administration people has been heeded. We have preference or particular interest, we was leaving, and Dr. Anthony must help restore the sense of learned again that democracy is Faucci will be the U.S. precious. Democracy is fragile, common purpose that we so badly representative. need right now. There are no quick and at this hour, my friends, • Extend eviction, foreclosure, democracy has prevailed." fixes; there is only the resolve and and Student Loan determination of our leaders and We created metrics to evaluate the moratoriums: the President citizens that will drive our long-term President or Governor's performance will work on all parties to growth. based on the metrics they inherited extend the moratoriums. and how their respective policies • Paris Climate Agreement: the helped the economy, people, U.S. re-joins the accord and places former State Secretary 2 Forecasts, 2 Themes & 2 Reactions: What does it takes to lead a Nation 2 Forecast 1: President Biden Takes COVID-19 is surging with administration. However, Over, All Focus is on Beating an average of 225,000 cases the team Biden has chosen COVID-19. per day in the last seven can hit the ground running As we said goodbye to Donald J. days. In comparison, during with years of experience Trump's tumultuous Presidency, his March-April 2020, the and critical connections legacy will be dividing the U.S. and average case growth was worldwide. giving a voice to racists, white 35,000 cases per day, • The Domestic Agenda: supremacists, QAnon conspirators, representing a 542% growth Domestic issues are likely and many other Trump loyalists that in the average cases per to prioritize, especially with found in Donald Trump a voice and day. the weakened state of the a leader. • Implementing a Massive U.S. economy. We have Vaccination Program: So already heard the President- President Trump leaves office with far, the vaccination program Elect highlight a plan "made a 29% approval rating, the second- has been lackluster, slow, in all of America" by all of lowest in 47 years, and the and fallen short of anyone's America's workers. The distinction of being the first expectations. The Biden Biden agenda calls for president to be impeached twice. administration has promised revitalizing U.S. From my perspective, President 100 million vaccinations in manufacturing and creating Trump's worst nightmare was the 100 days; this is the type of the basis to allow the Coronavirus Pandemic and his initial massive program we expect manufacturing sector to decision to dispel the virus. From Washington to implement to bring its factories back to that point on, as the nation suffered turn the COVID-19 corner the United States. and the economy tanked, his finally. Presidency went downhill quite • Making Economic Growth As the Dawn of the Biden quickly. Finally, what made him Sustainable: even as most Presidency arrived, I wonder if lose the election were the daily press economists predict that the you recall who said these conferences that were ramblings, full U.S. will achieve economic words? “How can we love our of reality distortion field arguments, growth of 4.3% GNP during country and not love our and his unwillingness to implement 2021, with the COVID-19 countrymen? And loving a national plan to protect all U.S. surging, the economy them, reach out a hand when Citizens. begins to lose steam, they fall, heal them when Let's have a quick look at already some of the key they're sick, and provide Presidential final approval ratings: economic benchmarks are opportunities to make them • Trump 29% showing signs of self-sufficient so they will be • Obama 59% weakening: equal in fact and not just theory." These words are from • Bush 34% • The $2.8 Trillion one of my favorites' inaugural • Clinton 66% Bazooka: the Biden addresses that Ronald Reagan • Bush Sr. 56% Proposal of $1.9 trillion and the already approved $908 gave on January 20, 1981, in • Carter 34% billion provides a $2.8 The Dawn of his own • Ford 53% trillion bazooka attempts to Presidency. • Nixon 24% close the so-called "output The Biden administration that took gap." The output gap is the Forecast 2: Global Growth over this past Wednesday faces a level of goods and services Projected to reach 5.5%: As the divided nation, a surging healthcare the United States would race for the COVID-19 cure crisis that the former administration likely produce over the next advances, we have three vaccines has all but ignored for months, and three years without a approved in the U.S. and a fourth national security threats that are Stimulus Package and what one in the Eurozone have increased rocking the world's oldest it would have with a robust the hope of many citizens returning democracy.