Baseline Survey for Supporting Electric Power Sector in Republic of Iraq Final Report July 2004 in cooperation with United Nations Development Programme Final Report Location Map of the Study Area Baseline Survey for Supporting Electric Power Sector July 2004 in Republic of Iraq Final Report Table of Contents BASELINE SURVEY FOR SUPPORTING ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR IN REPUBLIC OF IRAQ FINAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Location Map of the Study Area CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................1 1.1 Background............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Objectives of the Study ........................................................................................... 1-2 1.3 Methodology and Schedule..................................................................................... 1-2 1.4 Acknowledgement .................................................................................................. 1-3 CHAPTER 2 OVERVIEW OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMY OF IRAQ................................. 2-1 2.1 Recent History of Iraq............................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Government and Administrative Regions ................................................................ 2-2 2.3 The Geography and Socio-Economic Conditions .................................................... 2-5 Chapter 3 PAST AND CURRENT STATUS OF ELECTRICity SECTOR ......................... 3-1 3.1 Status of Electricity Sector...................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Overview of the Electricity Sector ....................................................................... 3-1 3.1.2 Generation........................................................................................................... 3-8 3.1.3 Transmission Lines............................................................................................ 3-17 3.1.4 Substations ........................................................................................................ 3-20 3.1.5 Distribution Networks........................................................................................ 3-23 3.1.6 Load Dispatching Facilities................................................................................ 3-24 3.2 Load Pattern and Load Shedding........................................................................... 3-26 3.3 Power Trading with Neighboring Countries .......................................................... 3-28 3.4 Fuel Supply System and Quality of Fuel ............................................................... 3-29 3.5 Standards and Regulations .................................................................................... 3-32 3.6 Organization and Institution of Electricity Sector.................................................. 3-33 3.6.1 History of Electricity Sector............................................................................... 3-33 3.6.2 Present Organization for Electricity Sector......................................................... 3-36 3.6.3 Tariff Structure .................................................................................................. 3-39 CHAPTER 4 REVIEW OF PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENT PLANS.................................. 4-1 4.1 General ................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Oil-for-Food Program (OFFP)................................................................................. 4-1 Baseline Survey for Supporting Electric Power Sector i July 2004 in Republic of Iraq Final Report Table of Contents 4.3 Electricity Network Rehabilitation Project (ENRP)................................................. 4-3 4.4 10 Year Plan of Commission of Electricity (CoE).................................................... 4-4 4.5 Needs Assessment by UN and WB.......................................................................... 4-6 4.6 Maintenance Programme by CPA............................................................................ 4-8 4.7 Investigation by the Middle East Cooperation Center, Japan ................................... 4-9 CHAPTER 5 EXISTING AND COMMITTED PROJECTS .............................................. 5-1 5.1 Generating Plant .................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1.1 Existing Projects.................................................................................................. 5-1 5.1.2 Committed Projects ............................................................................................. 5-7 5.2 Transmission Lines ................................................................................................ 5-9 5.3 Substations........................................................................................................... 5-10 5.4 Distribution Networks.......................................................................................... 5-12 5.5 Load Dispatching Facilities.................................................................................. 5-13 CHAPTER 6 DEMAND FORECAST ............................................................................... 6-1 6.1 General Flow .......................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Review of Past Study on Demand Forecast ............................................................. 6-1 6.3 Present Constrained Demand .................................................................................. 6-6 6.4 Nation Wide Demand Forecast................................................................................ 6-8 6.4.1 Approach............................................................................................................. 6-8 6.4.2 Available Data ..................................................................................................... 6-8 6.4.3 Estimation of Present Potential Demand............................................................... 6-8 6.4.4 Transmission and Distribution Losses .................................................................. 6-9 6.4.5 Load Factors...................................................................................................... 6-10 6.4.6 Base Scenario of Nation Wide Demand Forecast................................................ 6-12 6.4.7 Demand Side Management ................................................................................ 6-13 6.4.8 Other Scenarios for Demand Forecast ................................................................ 6-14 6.5 Regional Demand Forecast .................................................................................. 6--15 6.5.1 Approach.......................................................................................................... 6--15 6.5.2 Available Data .................................................................................................. 6--15 6.5.3 Population and Number of Consumers .............................................................. 6--17 6.5.4 Regional Energy Consumption.......................................................................... 6--19 6.5.5 Regional Peak Load.......................................................................................... 6--23 6.5.6 Seasonal Energy Consumption and Peak Load .................................................. 6--25 6.5.7 Assumptions and Procedure for Regional Demand Forecast.............................. 6--27 6.5.8 Result of Regional Demand Forecast ................................................................ 6--30 6.6 Results of Demand Forecast................................................................................. 6--36 CHAPTER 7 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT IN ELECTRICITY SECTOR.............. 7-1 7.1 General ................................................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 Specific Features of Thermal Plant.......................................................................... 7-1 7.2.1 Fuel for Gas Turbines .......................................................................................... 7-3 7.2.2 Ambient Temperature and Performance of Gas Turbines...................................... 7-4 7.2.3 Turbine Inlet Gas Temperature and Thermal Efficiency........................................ 7-5 7.2.4 Operation and Maintenance of Gas Turbines ........................................................ 7-5 Baseline Survey for Supporting Electric Power Sector ii July 2004 in Republic of Iraq Final Report Table of Contents 7.3 Some Items to be Considered for Selection of New Generating Plant ...................... 7-6 7.4 Introduction of Combined-Cycle Generation........................................................... 7-8 7.4.1 Outline of Combined-Cycle Power Generation..................................................... 7-8 7.4.2 Specific Features of Combined-Cycle Generation ................................................ 7-8 7.4.3 Structure of Combined-Cycle Generation............................................................. 7-9 7.4.4 Staged Implementation of Combined-Cycle Generation ..................................... 7-10 7.4.5 Repowering System........................................................................................... 7-10 7.5 Introduction