HARVARD UNIVERSITY ROBERT AND RENÉE BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 2002-2003 ANNUAL REPORT 2 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 2002-2003 Annual Report Director’s Foreword 4 Overview From the Executive Director 6 Caspian Studies Program TABLE 7 OF Environment and Natural Resources Program 16 CONTENTS International Security Program 47 Science, Technology and Public Policy Program 81 WPF Program on Intrastate Conflict, Conflict Prevention, and Conflict Resolution 118 Events 124 Publications 150 Biographies 169 International Council 179 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 3 2002-2003 Annual Report Director’s Foreword —————————————♦ The second year of the global war on terrorism has provided tremendous challenges for our nation and has kept BCSIA at the intellectual center of the most significant issues under debate. For the 2002-03 academic year, the headlines of our international press reflected well the internal priorities of our Center. The war in Iraq and search there for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD); the challenge from North Korea on reprocessing fuel to create nuclear weapons; and the hot debate over Russian provided technology for an Iranian nuclear facility. Before elaborating on these issues, I do want to note clearly that BCSIA is about much more than international security in the military sense. In September William Clark delivered to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science his highly acclaimed report on “The State of the Nation’s Ecosystems.” In April the first Roy Family Award, a recognition program established through the Environment and Natural Resources Program in BCSIA to recognize private-public cooperation for the protection of natural resources was presented to a project in Bolivia. Also this spring four BCSIA faculty members – William Clark, John Holdren, Calestous Juma, and Henry Lee joined to create a new executive education program for senior government officials from developing nations on how to incorporate recent advances in science and technology. In meeting the special challenges of intrastate conflict in Africa, Robert Rotberg, head of the WPF Program on Intrastate Conflict, has hosted presentations by African leaders, as well as published a series of books, op-eds and articles to bring these issues into the public spotlight. In dealing with the earlier referenced challenges in Iraq, North Korea, and Iran, BCSIA continued its leadership role through a program of engagement with key decision makers and through presenting arguments through the public media. Among the guests who came to BCSIA events this past year for discussion and engagement have been President Musharraf of Pakistan, Senator Dick Lugar, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dick Myers, Commander of U.S. Northern Command General Ralph Eberhardt, former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, and a host of other scholars, politicians, and opinion makers. Ashton Carter has remained in the lead for BCSIA through his Preventive Defense Program in dealing with both public appearances and advising our government on the unique challenges of dealing with North Korea’s nuclear weapons potential and program. Following our traditional interest in preventing “loose nukes,” Matt Bunn, Anthony Weir, and John Holdren joined forces to author “Controlling Nuclear Warheads and Materials: A Report Card and Action Plan.” Prior to the military conflict in Iraq, BCSIA international security experts were hard at work assessing the justification for conflict, the cost of engagement, and the likely outcome of the war. Our stellar International Council continued to make meaningful contributions to our program through their interaction with faculty and researchers and through their active participation on our annual spring gathering. This year President Larry Summers opened our program at the opening dinner and led into a James Schlesinger hosted discussion on 4 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 2002-2003 Annual Report developments in Iraq. On the second day we covered a wide range of contemporary issues including North Korea, U.S. Defense Transformation, the impact of science and technology on the environment, as well as strategies and technologies for combating terrorism. To expand on these meetings, BCSIA has set up a program for conference calls to allow International Board members to share views with distinguished visitors to BCSIA. In this opening letter I have only been able to touch on some of the highlights of a very productive year for our center here at Harvard. I sincerely hope you will take the time to explore in depth the extraordinary work of our various programs as reported in the following pages. Graham Allison Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 5 2002-2003 Annual Report Overview ————————————————♦ from the Executive Director The 2002-03 academic year again kept BCSIA in the public spotlight and in the heart of intellectual study over the most immediate challenges facing us in international security affairs, environmental and research issues, and science and technology policy. The war in Iraq provided a unique opportunity for BCSIA to demonstrate its academic prowess by dissecting for the public and for academic peers each aspect of the then pending conflict from the merits of the various arguments on options to the likely cost of such a conflict. Once the war began the media flooded BCSIA with request for expert understanding and explanation of this major international conflict and members of the Center provided more than 100 media interviews in the month-long conflict. However, despite such major external drains on time and resources, the Center kept its focus on what it does best, advancing policy-relevant knowledge in our primary areas of competence. “International Security” retained its dominant position as the premier American publication for the most crucial issues on the security front. Robert Rotberg of our Program on Intrastate Conflict published State Failure and State Weakness in a Time of Terror. Bill Clark of the Environment and Natural Resources Program made a major contribution with The State of the Nation’s Ecosystems. Once again BCSIA managed to attract one of the most skilled group of academic fellows to populate any academic institution in America and they collaborated across program lines on such critical issues as our Managing the Atom Project and studies on aspects of terrorism. Finally, BCSIA continued its faithful service as a good citizen in the Kennedy School and larger Harvard communities. Steve Walt is serving as the Academic Dean of the Kennedy School. Rob Stavins continues to chair a University wide initiative on environmental issues. Numerous faculty and researchers now regularly work across both Center and School lines to share their expertise and build collaborative programs. The pages that follow reflect the extraordinary accomplishments of these exceptional people of whom we are quite proud. We hope after reading this report you will share our enthusiasm and continue as a member of our larger community. John Reppert 6 Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs 2002-2003 Annual Report Caspian —————————————————♦ Studies Program MEMBERS Graham T. Allison, Jr., Director Brenda Shaffer, Research Director Anya Schmemann, Program Manager John Grennan, Research Assistant Susan Lynch, Staff Assistant Grenville Byford, Affiliate Maury Devine, Fellow BACKGROUND The 2002–2003 academic year was the fourth year of the Caspian Studies Program and Azerbaijan Initiative at the Kennedy School. The Program was established in 1999 with a generous gift from the United States–Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce. The founding sponsors of the Program are ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco, assisted by gifts from CSO Aker Maritime Offshore LTD, CCC, and ETPM. Continued Support for the Program has come from ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, the Amerada Hess Corporation, ConocoPhillips, and Glencore International. Additional research and activity has been made possible by Solar Turbines and the Unocal Corporation. Through the Program’s research, outreach, and teaching, it seeks to raise the profile of the region’s opportunities and problems, and utilize Harvard resources to train new leaders who will help shape the future of the region. By establishing a dialogue among policymakers, scholars, and practitioners, the Program hopes to focus the debate in ways that produce effective policy toward and for the region. The Program’s main objective is promote effective policies from the U.S. policymaking community toward the Caspian region as an area in which the United States has important national interests and where U.S. policy can make major difference. The U.S. policy community includes: the Executive and Legislative branches of government; the analytic community that surrounds these institutions (including think-tanks, universities, and NGOs); and the press. In this noisy environment, the Program’s goal is to identify the Caspian for the policymaking community as a location of importance; to explore and explain the special opportunities and risks in this region; and to identify actions that the U.S. government, other governments, NGOs, universities, and others can take in order to make a difference in the region. Similarly, the Program seeks to increase the understanding of U.S. policy among the Caspian region’s leaders and populations. In addition,