Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2010 Developing a Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Matthew Onderlinde Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES DEVELOPING A PARAMETER FOR FORECASTING TORNADOES IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES By MATTHEW ONDERLINDE A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree Awarded: Spring Semester, 2010 The members of the committee approve the thesis of Matthew Onderlinde defended on December 10, 2009. __________________________________ Henry E. Fuelberg Professor Directing Thesis __________________________________ Robert Hart Committee Member __________________________________ Paul H. Ruscher Committee Member __________________________________ Andrew I. Watson Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to first thank my major professor Dr. Henry Fuelberg for his tremendous support. His guidance has allowed me to develop both as a person and as a meteorologist. His diligence in developing his students goes beyond most professors. I feel extremely fortunate to have spent two years as a member of Dr. Fuelberg’s lab, an experience I will always cherish. I would also like to thank my family for being so supportive of my choice to pursue a career in meteorology. From the beginning they have instructed me to seek a job I love. I thank Dr. Robert Hart and Dr. Paul Ruscher for serving on my graduate committee. Their insights were crucial in the development of my research. I also thank Mr. Irv Watson for serving as an outside member on my committee. His knowledge of National Weather Service procedures and data sources was critical to my project’s success. I would also like to acknowledge Roger Edwards and Steven Weiss from the Storm Prediction Center for their suggestions relating to my research. I am very thankful to have had wonderful friends and lab mates during my time at Florida State. I am especially thankful for my girlfriend Lisa who has shown boundless patience during the many late nights of graduate school. Her encouragement and support have made me a better person. Most importantly, I want to thank God for his unfailing faithfulness to me. I have been blessed beyond what I could have imagined and cherish His creation which I study. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................v List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ vi Abstract ........................................................................................................................................ viii 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................... 1 2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Data ............................................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Methods ...................................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Statistical Methods .................................................................................................................................... 10 3. RESULTS ...................................................................................................................................................... 18 Statistical Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 18 Case 1 – Hurricane Ike (2008) ........................................................................................................................ 20 Case 2 – Hurricane Charley (2004) ................................................................................................................ 24 Case 3 – Hurricane Cindy (2005) ................................................................................................................... 26 Case 4 – Tropical Storm Barry (2007) ............................................................................................................ 28 Case 5 – Hurricane Frances (2004) ................................................................................................................. 30 4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................ 33 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................... 36 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .............................................................................................................................. 39 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Correlation coefficients between the number of tornado reports in the same quadrant of a TC in a 12 h interval vs. each of the indicated geographic and atmospheric parameters. .................................................... 14 Table 2. The seven final predictors and their correlation with T_REPS, their regression coefficient, mean, and standard deviation. .............................................................................................................................................. 19 Table 3. Mean values for tornado reports vs. the null cases in the northeast quadrant. There were 287 tornado reports and 99 null cases in the northeast quadrant............................................................................................. 19 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Region of the study. ............................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 2. Schematic showing the north-relative azimuth angle (θ) and distance (d) for a tornado during Hurricane Dennis (2005). ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3. Bar graph of the number of tornadoes in the same quadrant during a 12 h period vs. distance to the center of the TC (D2CEN). The leftmost bin represents 200-218 km from the TC center, and the rightmost bin represents 732-750 km. ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 4. TCTP for Hurricane Ike at 1800 UTC 13 September 2008. Tornado reports between 1200 UTC 13 September and 0000 UTC 14 September are denoted by blue triangles. 23 tornadoes were reported in Ike’s northeast quadrant during this period. The units of TCTP are the number of tornadoes in a quadrant (200-750 km radius) per 12 h, in this case from 1200 UTC 13 September to 0000 UTC 14 September. Ike’s location at 1800 UTC is indicated. ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 5. Time series of TCTP at 6 h intervals from 1200 UTC 12 September (upper-right) to 1800 UTC 13 September (lower right). Blue triangles represent locations of tornado reports from 6 h before to 6 h after each forecast time. The units of TCTP are the number of tornadoes in a quadrant (200-750 km radius) per 12 h. Ike’s locations are indicated................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 6. Energy-Helicity Index (EHI), Significant Tornado Parameter (STP), and Tropical Cyclone Tornado Parameter (TCTP) for Hurricane Ike at 1200 and 1800 UTC 13 September 2008. Blue triangles represent locations of tornado reports from 6 h before to 6 h after both forecast times. The units of TCTP are the number of tornadoes in a quadrant (200-750 km radius) per 12 h. Ike’s locations are indicated. .................................. 23 Figure 7. Time series of TCTP from 0000 UTC 13 August 2004 (upper-right) to 0600 UTC 14 August (lower right) during Charley. Blue triangles represent locations of tornado reports from 6 h before to 6 h after each forecast time. The units of TCTP are the number of tornadoes in a quadrant (200-750 km radius) per 12 h. Charley’s locations are indicated. ....................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 8. Energy-Helicity Index (EHI), Significant Tornado Parameter (STP), and Tropical Cyclone Tornado Parameter (TCTP) for Hurricane Charley at 1200 and 1800 UTC 13 August 2004. Blue triangles represent locations of tornado reports from 6 h before to 6 h after both forecast times. The units of TCTP are the number of tornadoes in a quadrant (200-750 km radius) per 12 h. Charley’s locations are indicated. ........................... 26 Figure 9. Time series of TCTP from 0000 UTC 6 July 2004 (upper-right) to 0600 UTC 7 July (lower right) during Cindy. Blue triangles represent locations of tornado reports