SOMALI REGION: MULTI – AGENCY GU 2012 SEASONAL ASSESSMENT REPORT REGION: Somali Regional State DATE ASSESSMENT STARTED & June 1 – 25, 2012 COMPLETED: TEAM MEMBERS – Regional analysis and report NAME AGENCY Demeke Eshete USAID Abdirahman Ali Issack OCHA Ahmed Abdirahman (Alieed) SCUK Ahmed Mohammed FAO Mohamed Hasen OCHA 1 PART I: FOOD SECURITY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The overall food security of the region has been stable and shown some improvements since the last dey /karan season. Households in most of the zones also have benefited from the higher Terms of Trade (ToT) between livestock and cereals. The near normal to normal gu rains also helped to improve pasture and water availability to sustain and improve the body conditions of livestock. Generally the food security situation for most parts of the region remained stable due to the positive effects of the two consecutive rains (deyr and gu) on pasture and water availability that sustained good to average livestock conditions, improved terms of trade due to the declining trend in cereal prices and improved livestock prices. Gu 2012 rains commenced on time in most of the southern seven zones and in Jigjiga. On the contrary, most of Shinile in the north and southern parts of Gode, Dolobay and Barey of Afder, and Dolo Ado of Liban remained dry or received much below normal rains. Pasture and water conditions are currently rated from average to good in most of the southern zones and Jigjiga as a result of the near normal to normal deyr/karan seasons, the mild Jilaal season (Jan-Mar 2012), and the near timely start of the gu rains. However, the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods of Dolo Ado in Liban, Dolobay and Barey in Afder, the three southern woredas of Gode, and Danod and Galadi of Warder where meager gu rains were received, pasture and water resources have been depleted, early season internal livestock movements and needs for water trucking have been reported. Likewise, the long dry Jilaal season (Oct 11 - Mar 12) was very harsh in parts of the northern Shinile zone (Shinile, Erer, Hadagala and Ayisha and parts of Afdem) where the main karan rains (Jul-Sep 11) were also much below normal. A long narrow belt stretching from Ayisha in the east to Erer and Dambal in the west crossing through Shinile and Hadagala districts has not received any gu season rains (Apr-May 12). The situation in this zone is very critical with elevated malnutrition cases and increased morbidity and disease outbreaks (Source: Shinile team rapid and gu 12 assessment reports based on field data and Zone health office data). Over the long Jilaal period, the livestock body condition in Shinile has gradually deteriorated and cattle and shoats were emaciated. The purchasing power of the pastoral and agro-pastoral households has been strengthened in all parts of the region due to the decrease in cereal prices, particularly relief wheat, and the increasing livestock prices. Increase in price of shoats in particular is anticipated with a rising demand for shoats for the coming festive season of Ramadan (July-August 2012). As the hagaa dry season progresses, however, body condition of livestock declines and prices may also drop. 2 Milk availability has declined as the calving rate of the season was very minimal and late lactating animals have dried up. The prospect for increased kidding/lambing of livestock that improves milk availability in the coming two to four months is in fact high except for Shinile. Market purchases and PSNP/relief assistance are the main sources of cereals and food for most households in Somali region. Cereal prices remained stable or gradualy declined, especially relief wheat, in most markets of the region since the months of Feb/Mar 2012. Particularly significant price drops were observed in Fiq. Degahbur and Gode markets due to mainly regular PSNP and relief food distribution, and relative ease of restrictions on imported fod items. The price of relief wheat was the lowest in Fiq and Degahbur markets in May 2012, where a 50 kg wheat was purchased for 70 and 90 birr respectively. The cereal price trends in the coming months will also largely be determined by the flow of PSNP/relief food and ease of access to imported food supply. Local cereal production is not likely this season and PSNP is not running from July to December. Hence the price of cereals and imported food items is expected to rise. Based on these and field level data collected through community interviews, the assessment teams anticipate that the current food security status is likely to persist throughout the region until the impacts of the upcoming rainy seasons (Karan and Deyr) are known. WEATHER CONDITIONS Gu 2012 rains were near normal to below normal contributing for regeneration of pasture and improving water availability in most parts of the region. The start of gu rains was timely for most zones while up to two weeks late onset was observed for some zones. Distribution, both in time and space, and intensity of the gu rains also varied across the zones. More or less similar patterns of distribution were experienced with the last deyr but gu rains were near normal to below normal with the exception of Shinile, southern woredas of Gode (Kalafo, Muztahil, and Ferfer), eastern parts of Warder (Danot, Galadi and Daratole), parts of Korahey, Dolobay and Barey of Afder, and Dolo Ado of Liban. Generally, the performance of gu rain has been below normal for Shinile zone and no rain was reported since mid-April, 2012. Majority of the woredas received very poor and erratic gu rainfall with uneven distribution and coverage. The 2012 Jilaal-long dry season (Oct ’11-Mar ’12) was harsh for the pastoral livelihoods of Shinile where the last Karan season also performed poorly. In this area, rangeland and water resources have become depleted causing an early livestock movement towards Jigjiga zone and Oromia region. In Jigjiga, this year rainfall started on time at the end of March and stopped in mid-May. Despite this, the rain was erratic and uneven in terms of distribution, frequency and intensity. Parts of Jigjiga, Awbare, Kabribayah and Tuliguled received normal rains, Babile and Gursum received medium to normal rains, 3 while Harshin woreda which remained dry during the last season and experienced chronic water shortage has received normal rains this season. The current gu rain was erratic in amount and distribution with late onset, early secession and long dry spell between rainy days for Gode zone. Unlike Gode, for the neighboring Dagahbour, performance of the gu rains was reported to be normal for most woredas with the exception of south west Gashamo and north east Ararso woredas. Likewise the current gu was normal for most of Fik zone but amount and distribution varies from one woreda to another. Most woredas received better rains except Fik and Hamaro. In the south west, for Liban zone, this season’s gu rain was timely and distribution of the rain was good with good intensity as compared to normal gu seasons and reference years except Dolo Ado which received extremely below normal rainfall during the gu season. Whereas for Afder zone the gu 2012 rains started in mid-April in most parts of the zone, delayed by two weeks. In general the rain is characterized with late onset, varies frequency, low to medium intensity, uneven and more localized distribution in some places. Bare, Dolobay, West Imey, and Raso, received very little rain compared to the other woredas in the zone. In Southern and southeastern parts of the region, the gu rains were good in many parts of Korahey zone except for some pocket areas. Areas with little or no rain include the southern parts of Shilabo, south western parts of Dobewain, south and eastern parts of Shekosh, and south eastern parts of Kabridaher. Contrary to this, the performance of the gu rains in all parts of Warder zone was reported as below normal. The distribution was not even, for there were areas with good rain and areas with no rain at all. Bokh and Warder Woredas were better than others in terms of the amount of rain received because in Danot, Daratole and Galadi woredas, the rain was much below normal. Areas in the southern part of Galadi woreda may face serious water shortages starting July as the Birkas are almost empty. All the regional teams were also requested to compare amount of rainfall reported in LEAP with ground observations in the region during travel. On their return, most team observations ascertain that the amount of rainfall reported in LEAP is inflated and it does not correspond with the situation on the ground. Hence further ground cross-check exercise is commendable before implementation. PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS: Regional overview Livestock conditions affects majority of Somali Region’s population in terms of their socioeconomic aspiration and food security conditions. Better livestock body condition translates to higher prices, high milk production and social serenity as no resources conflict are anticipated as pastoralists do not have stress for feed and water for their livestock. The substantial conception for camels and cattle that occurred during the last Karan/Deyr season is expected to make positive increment in the herd size of camels and cattle. There has been high conception rate for camels and shoats in all karan and deyr receiving zones during the last season except for cattle in deyr receiving zones. 4 However, milk production in this season is very low in most parts of the region because of low calving during the season. Though milk yield has improved for the few lactating animals starting the commence of the gu season, current milk yield is also minimal due to late lactating resulting in drying up of milk producing stocks.