Progress report of the SHEER project Paolo Gasparini Presentation at the meeting on Unconventional hydrocarbons extraction European Commission & JRC, Brussels February 23, 2016 THE CONSORTIUM 1. AMRA 5. KNMI Analisi e Monitoraggio del Rischio Ambientale, Italy Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Netherlands P. Gasparini B. Dost 2. IGF PAS 6. RSK Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland RSK W Ltd, United Kingdom S. Lasocki A. Gunning 3. KeU 7. UGL Keele University, United Kingdom University of Glasgow, United Kingdom N. Cassidy P. Younger 4. GFZ 8. UW Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches Geoforschungszentrum, Germany University of Wyoming, United States T. Dahm M. Cheadle OBJECTIVES The SHEER (SHale gas Exploration and Exploitation induced Risks) main objective is to develop best practices to assess and mitigate the environmental footprint of shale gas exploration and exploitation. Procedures are being developed for the assessment of short and long-term risks associated with: – Groundwater contamination By chemicals contained in the flow back, formation, produced and waste fluids – Air pollution By migration of fugitive methane through induced and natural fractures and mobilization of radioactive particles and gases from the underground – Induced seismicity By fracking , production process and injection of waste water SHEER DATA The SHEER dataset is formed by: • data collected during the pre-drilling, drilling, fracking, exploitation activity (hopefully) from the monitoring of the Wysin site in Pomerania (Poland) • data from past cases: - shale gas exploitation sites - conventional hydrocarbons exploitation sites - geothermal energy sites WYSIN SHALE GAS EXPLOITATION SITE Wysin site monitoring and data collection from the site preparation phase to the production phase Polish shale gas site Municipality: Gmina Liniewo Village: Wysin WYSIN SITE 54° 5' 38.70"N, 18°18' 20.00"E Distances: • 585 km from Kraków • 411 km from Warsaw • 45 km from Gdańsk ON SITE MONITORING Seismicity: 31 surface and 3 borehole stations. 3 small arrays, 1BB station and 8-9SP stations each (GFZ, IGF PAS) 3 BB stations (GFZ) 3 borehole seismometers 50-60 mbgl (AMRA) Groundwater condition: 4 boreholes, 30-70mbgl, to collect and analyse samples for a range of determinants including CH4 with piezometers installed to monitor groundwater pressures. Air quality: Station monitoring nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, ozone, particulate matter PM10, carbon dioxide, total hydrocarbons (methane and non-methane hydrocarbons (VOC)), radon 222 WYSIN SITE MONITORING: SEISMIC AND HYDROGEOLOGICAL NETWORKS INSTALLATION OF HYDROGEOLOGICAL BOREHOLES Logging core at GW1 Drilling GW2 INSTALLATION OF BOREHOLE SEISMOMETERS Up to now data are stored locally. The signals will send and archived to an acquisition centre located in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, through 4G LTE/ 3G mobile network, using Wifi router D-Link DWR 116. Data acquisition is performed by a Kinemetrics Quanterra Q330 24-bit A/ D data-loggers. At each station the Q330 is equipped with a Kinemetrics Baler14 external storage system that provide recording and storage capabilities up to 20 Gb of data in MSEED format. The signals are recorded continuously and sampled at 200 sps. DATA GATHERED FROM THE SHEER PROJECT (1/ 2) Data availability from conventional oil and gas production sites Project Site Country Seismic Ground Water Air Production Partner data subsidence quality quality data responsible data data KeU Wyoming site? USA X ? KNMI Groeningen Olanda X X X Data availability from geothermal energy production Project Site Country Seismic Ground Water Air Production Partner data subsidence quality quality data responsible data data IGF-GFZ Gross Germania X X Schoenebeck AMRA-GFZ The Geiser California X X DATA GATHERED FROM THE SHEER PROJECT (2/ 2) Data availability from shale gas operation sites Project Site Country Seismic Ground Water Air Production Partner data subsidence quality quality data responsible data data IGF Pomerania Poland X X X X ? IGF Lubocino 2H Poland X X X well, Pomerania KeU Preese Hall 1 UK X X X CONCEPTUAL MODELS FOR SHALE SITES TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER RESOURCES A high-level review has been made of all the identified gas shale basins within the EU. This high-level screening combines the overall settings for each basin, allowing a higher level of granularity in the data than can be accommodated in the generic settings models. The screening helps to identify: • Which basins are well-characterised and well-understood; • Which basins have notable data gaps; and • Which basins have significant variability in one or more key parameters. CONCEPTUAL MODELS FOR SHALE SITES TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER RESOURCES The screening process can be applied to determine the generic settings and level of further investigation required to assess potential risks of any shale basin. Eight conceptual models have been developed. They provide a highly simplified broad- brush picture of the key elements of each basin giving a general overview of the important factors in groundwater assessment. Prepared by RSKW & UGL DEVELOPING A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSMENT OF SEISMIC VULNERABILITY OF BUILT STRUCTURES Methods 1. Risk matrices adopting vibration thresholds (qualitative) • Cosmetic and structural damage criteria 2. Fragility curves (quantitative) • Structural – specific (simulation) • Region- specific or Class type (simulation) • Existing generic fragility curves (literature) Damage states – Cosmetic damage state (low magnitude earthquakes) – Structural damage states (M >4) State-dependent vulnerability analysis Effect on cumulative events on the response of the structures: pre-exisiting damage may affect the stiffness and the strength of the buildings and have an effect for low damage state SUMMARY Approach Data needed Induced Triggered Damage Accuracy events events states Risk matrices Low x Cosmetic, Low & Vibration minor and theresholds major Generic Medium x Structural Low-Medium fragility damage states functions ad hoc fragility High x x Structural High functions damage states (Analitical, and cosmetic experimental, damage states hybrid based ) SHEER DISTINCTIVE FEATURES MULTI-RISK ANALYSIS Probabilistic methodology for assessing short and long-term risks To implement an effective mechanism to identify and structure scenarios of risk interactions and cascading effects, taking into account the phase of development of the project: Drilling, Hydraulic stimulation, Production, Abandonment To develop and implement physically-based, probabilistic tools for the assessment of the likelihood of occurrence of interrelated risk scenarios considering: Induced seismicity Ground water pollution Air pollution NaTech-like accidents POSSIBLE HAZARDS PRODUCED BY SHALE GAS OPERATIONS MULTI-HAZARD/ MULTI-RISK FRAMEWORK EXPECTED RESULTS OF THE PROJECT Assessment of the environmental impacts of shale gas extraction and exploration and to develop best practices aiming at reducing its environmental footprint through: The compilation of a database consisting of seismicity, data on the state of water and air and operational data collected from a shale gas site during the project and data gathered from past case studies, including data from conventional hydrocarbon exploration and enhanced geothermal fields involving fluid injection used as a proxy; The development of a methodology to assess environmental impacts and risks across the different operational phases of shale gas exploitation; The application of the developed methodology to the data gathered from past case studies and monitoring activities; Proposal of best practices for the monitoring and assessment of environmental impacts associated with shale gas exploration and exploitation; Elaboration of guidelines for risk management of shale gas exploitation induced environmental impacts addressed to emergency planners, policy-makers and responding organizations for the management of environmental impacts. DISSEMINATION Website: http://www.sheerproject.eu Newsletter: http://www.sheerproject.eu/dissemination/publications.html Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SHEER.EU/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/sheer_eu http://www.sheerproject.eu THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION .