RADICALISATION TO COMMIT TERRORISM FROM A POLITICAL SOCIALISATION PERSPECTIVE IN KENYA AND UGANDA Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Philosophiae Doctor in the Department of Political Studies and Governance Anneli Botha 2012172769 University of the Free State 1 June 2014 Promoter: Professor Hussein Solomon Co-promoter: Professor Theo Neethling ii I declare that the thesis which is hereby submitted for the qualification Philosophiae Doctor at the University of the Free State is my own independent work and has not been handed in before for a qualification at/in another University/faculty. The ownership of all intellectual property pertaining to and/or flowing from the thesis (including, without limitation, all copyright in the thesis), shall vest in the University of the Free State. Date of birth: 10 September 1970 Place of birth: Phalaborwa, South Africa Education: Matriculated at Ellisras Secondary School (1988) BA (Political Science), University of Pretoria (1991) BA Hons (International Politics), University of Pretoria (1992) MA Political Studies, Rand-Afrikaans University (1999) Professional career: Senior researcher on terrorism at the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria Marital status: Single Signed: Date: 1 June 2014 iii ABSTRACT Preventing and combating terrorism should start with understanding what drives an individual to resort to terrorism, taking into consideration that not all people experience the same external circumstances – not even people growing up in the same household. In order to understand radicalisation, this study asks the question to what extent political socialisation can explain the participation of individuals in terrorist organisations in Kenya and Uganda. Is there a difference in the applicable factors between the divergent ideological frameworks of the Allied Democratic Forces and the Lord’s Resistance Army in Uganda, and al-Shabaab and the Mombasa Republican Council in Kenya? To establish this, 285 interviews were conducted with members of these four organisations and the families of al-Shabaab members who had been killed or incarcerated, or who had disappeared in Kenya. This study found that political socialisation, starting with the family, peers, school, media, earlier political experiences and the terrorist group, played a distinctive role in each of these organisations. In addition to the differences, which create a distinctive profile for each organisation, the study also noted remarkable similarities, starting with personality types, position in the family and education (or the lack thereof). With this in mind, can law enforcement and social organisations be guided to identify and reach individuals at risk? The process of answering this question starts with calling on governments and their security forces to understand the uniqueness of each organisation. In other words, to copy and paste counterterrorism strategies between countries is counterproductive. The only inclusive finding across organisations and between countries has to do with the manner in which countries and their security forces respond to these organisations. Strategies based on ethnic and religious profiling, mass arrests and even torture proved to be extremely counterproductive. On this note, the study found that both Kenya and Uganda have been unable to establish an inclusive national identity. Instead, religious and ethnic identity drives political exclusion and relative deprivation. One of the key findings of this study is that only a very small minority is driven by purely economic circumstances. A iv core component among individuals being radicalised relates to the fact that people lose their trust in politicians and the political system, while anger and frustration are directed at security agencies that are presented as agents protecting the current regime at any cost. Consequently, instead of preventing and combating terrorism, these approaches ensure that people experiencing the mentioned strategies – and even their family members – are radicalised. The prevention of unconventional political participation should therefore start with creating a political landscape in which people, especially those being marginalised, can express themselves freely. Additionally, the legitimacy of the political process can only be ensured if the political landscape is free and fair. Therefore, the legitimacy of the government, the measures security agencies implement to respond to these threats, and the potential for unconventional political participation are interlinked. The study also found that education is a key factor in ensuring legitimate participation in the political process and the most effective strategy to prevent relative deprivation. VOORWOORD Alvorens daar met die voorkoming en bekamping van terrorisme begin kan word, moet daar allereers ‘n begrip wees waarom ‘n individu hom of haar tot terreur wend. ‘n Belangrike punt wat in ag geneem moet word, is dat mense nie dieselfde op eksterne faktore reageer nie; nie eens mense wat in dieselfde huis grootgeword het nie. In ‘n poging om radikalisering te verstaan, word in hierdie studie gevra in watter mate politieke sosialisering sekere individue aanspoor om by sekere terreurorganisasies in Kenia en Uganda aan te sluit. Aangesien die ideologiese raamwerke van van die Allied Democratic Forces (die ADF) en die Lord’s Resistance Army (die LRA) in Uganda, en al-Shabaab en die Mombasa Republican Council (die MRC) in Kenia van uiteenlopende aard is, onstaan die vraag hoe die aanleidende faktore verskil waarmee voornemende lede van die onderskeie organisasies te kampe het? Ten einde dit te bepaal, is 285 onderhoude met lede van die vier genoemde organisasies, asook familielede van al-Shabaab ondersteuners wat gedood, in aanhouding, of in Kenia vermis is, v gevoer. Hierdie studie het bevind dat politieke sosialisering, wat begin by die gesin, vriende, die skool, die media en vroeëre ondervindings met die politiek en die terroristegroep, ‘n duidelike rol in elk van die organisasies gespeel het. Ten spyte van die verskille – wat ‘n duidelike profiel van elke organisasie daarstel – het die studie getoon dat daar merkwaardige ooreenkomste bestaan. Dit begin met persoonlikheidstipes, die rangorde in die gesin en opvoedkundige kwalifikasies (of die gebrek daaraan). Met dit alles in gedagte, is dit moontlik om wetstoepassers en maatskaplike organisasies behulpsaam te wees met die identifisering en bereiking van moontlike risikogevalle? Die proses om dié vraag te beantwoord, begin deur regerings en hul veiligheidsmagte aan te spoor om te verstaan dat elke organisasie uniek is. Om teen-terreurstrategieë wat in een staat gevolg word presies net so op ‘n ander van toepassing te maak, is in werklikheid teenproduktief. Die enigste gemene deler wat onder die verskillende organisies en die onderskeie state aangetref is, is inderdaad die wyse waarop die veiligheidsmagte van elke staat op die organisasies reageer. Aksies wat gegrond is op etniese en religieuse eienskappe, massa-arrestasies en selfs marteling blyk uiters teenproduktief te wees. Hierdie studie het inderwaarheid bevind dat beide Kenia en Uganda onsuksesvol was in hul pogings om ‘n inklusiewe nasionale identiteit daar te stel. In teendeel lei ‘n religieuse en etniese identiteit uiteindelik daartoe dat politieke uitsluiting en verlies ervaar word. Een van die belangrikste bevindings in hierdie studie is dat slegs ‘n klein minderheid aangespoor word deur suiwer ekonomiese omstandighede. ‘n Kern komponent van individue wat geradikaliseer is stem saam dat mense hul vertroue in politici en die politieke sisteem verloor het, terwyl woede en frustrasie gemik is teen veiligheidsagentskappe wat bloot gesien word as beskermers – dikwels ten alle koste – van die bestaande regime. Die gevolg is dat in plaas van terrorisme voorkom en bekamp, dié benaderings verseker dat persone (en dikwels hul familielede ook) wat onder genoemde aksies ly, geradikaliseer word. Die voorkoming van onkonvensionele politieke deelname behoort dus eerstens te begin met die daarstelling van ‘n politieke landskap waar almal – en in die besonder diegene wat gemarginaliseerd is – hul vi stem vrylik kan laat hoor. Tweedens kan die wettigheid van die politieke proses slegs verseker wees indien die politieke landskap vry en regverdig is. Gevolglik is die legitimiteit van die regering, die maatreëls wat veiligheidsmagte tref om bedreigings te bekamp en die gevaar van onkonvensionele politieke deelname nou met mekaar verweef. Hierdie studie het ook bevind dat goeie akademiese onderrig ‘n kern faktor is wanneer wettige deelname aan die politieke proses verseker word en uiteindelik die mees effektiewe strategie is om relatiewe uitsluiting te voorkom. Key words and phrases Terrorism in Kenya; terrorism in Uganda; radicalisation; political socialisation; identity; conditions conducive to terrorism; al-Shabaab; Allied Democratic Forces; Lord’s Resistance Army; Mombasa Republican Council vii DEDICATION Soli Deo Gloria To my parents viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thank you to both promoters for allowing me to search for answers to the question I have had since I first got interested in terrorism a lifetime ago: ‘Why?’ Thank you for allowing me to conduct my own study – not forcing your interests onto me – while guiding me through the process. To Professor Hussein Solomon, thank you for all your support, friendship and for the last nudge to complete my studies. To Professor Theo Neethling, thank you for all your assistance and guidance. To Lomin Saayman