THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES OF RAS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGES: FACTS, TRENDS, FORECAST 2 (20) 2012 The journal is published according to the decision of RAS economic institutions’ administration in the North-West federal district Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North Komi scientific centre of the Ural RAS department (Komi Republic) Institute of Economics of Karelian scientific centre of RAS (Karelia Republic) G.P. Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola scientific centre of RAS (the Murmansk region) Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS (the Vologda region) and according to the decision of St. Petersburg State University of Engineering and Economics administration and other RF regions Institute of Social and Economic Research of Ufa Science Centre of RAS (Bashkortostan Republic) The decision of Presidium of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Russian MES (№6/6, dated 19.02.2010) the journal is included in the list of leading scientific editions, recommended for publication of the main results of dissertations for the degree of Doctor and Candidate of Sciences. Editorial council: RAS academician V.L. Makarov (Moscow, Russia) RAS academician V.V. Ivanter (Moscow, Russia) RAS academician V.V. Okrepilov (St. Petersburg, Russia) Belarus NAS academician P.A. Vityaz (Minsk, Belarus) Belarus NAS academician P.G. Nikitenko (Minsk, Belarus) RAS corresponding member V.N. Lazhentsev (Syktyvkar, Russia) Professor J. Sapir (Paris, France) Doctor of Economics, professor S.D. Valentey (Moscow, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor D.A. Gaynanov (Ufa, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor V.A. Ilyin (Vologda, Russia) Professor M. Kivinen (Helsinki, Finland) Doctor of Sociology, professor I.V. Kotlyarov (Minsk, Belarus) Doctor of Economics, professor S.V. Kuznetsov (St. Petersburg, Russia) Doctor of Economics, professor F.D. Larichkin (Apatity, Russia) Doctor of Technics, professor A.V. Putilov (Moscow, Russia) Doctor of Technical Sciences Yu.Ya. Chukreev (Syktyvkar, Russia) Doctor of Technics, professor A.I. Shishkin (Petrozavodsk, Russia) Doctor, professor Zhang Shuhua (Beijing, China) Professor Wu Enyuan (Beijing, China) Chief editor – V.A. Ilyin Editorial board: Doctor of Economics, professor L.A. Anosova Doctor of Economics, professor A.G. Vorobyov Doctor of Economics, professor E.S. Gubanova Ph.D. in History K.A. Gulin (deputy chief editor) Ph.D. in Economics K.A. Zadumkin Ph.D. in Economics G.V. Leonidova Ph.D. in Economics M.F. Sychev (deputy chief editor) Ph.D. in Economics S.V. Terebova Doctor of Economics T.V. Uskova, Doctor of Economics A.A. Shabunova Opinions presented in the articles can differ from the editorial board’s point of view Authors of the articles are responsible for the material selected and stated. ISSN 1998-0698 © ISEDT RAS, 2012 Internet address: http://esc.vscc.ac.ru CONTENT FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR Ilyin V.A. Bifurcation of a new political cycle .................................................................... 5 THEORETICAL ISSUES Yakunin V.I. Post-industrialism: the experience of critical analysis .................................. 14 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Glazyev S.Yu. Why is Putin? ............................................................................................ 26 Selin V.S., Zaitseva E.I., Istomin A.V. Tax tools and state guarantees in the northern regions ..................................................................................................... 32 RUSSIAN AND BELARUSIAN ACADEMIC SCIENTIFIC COOPERATION Dedkov S.M., Egorov V.K. Scientific collaboration between Russia and Belarus at the first stage of allied relations: the restoration of a single research area . 43 Uskova T.V., Selimenkov R.Yu., Asanovich V.Ya. Methodological modeling aspects of foreign-economic activity in the regions of the North-West Federal District and the Republic of Belarus ......................................................... 51 Shabunova А.А., Leonidova G.V., Shuhatovich V.R., Artyukhin М.I. Socio-demographic aspects of labour potential development ................................................... 61 Shabunova А.А., Shakhot’ko L.P., Bobrova А.G., Malanicheva N.А. Able-bodied population mortality in Russia and Belarus as a threat to the demographic development of the territories .................................................................. 72 BRANCH-WISE AND REGIONAL ECONOMY Selin M.V., Uskov V.S. The state and developmental trends of fruit and berry market in the North-Western regions of Russia ..................................................... 83 Sovetov P.M., Fedorkov А.I., Kabichkin S.Е. Methodological aspects for the assessment of the state and use of human capital ......................................................... 91 Ostretsov V.N., Zhiltsov V.V. The effectiveness of livestock farming mechanization ........ 101 INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT Nikolaev A.E. Public-private partnership in the scientific and technological sphere of defense industry: Russian and foreign experience .......................105 Sherin V.A. Investigation of the connection between the statistical indicators of innovative processes and the socio-economic situation in the region .....116 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Styrov М.М. Trends of social expenditures in the North of Russia ................................. 123 Kurilo A.E., Nemkovich E.G. The spiritual component of the investment process in the Republic of Karelia ....................................................................... 135 ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS Dorogovtseva A.A., Erygina A.V., Dorogovtsev A.P. The implementation of the economic control mechanism of environmental protection (in the case of water bodies in St. Petersburg) .......................................................................... 143 Information about authors .......................................................................................... 150 Requirements to manuscripts ....................................................................................... 157 Information about subscription .................................................................................... 159 FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR Bifurcation of a new political cycle The cyclical phase of the central authorities’ renovation will be completed by the final procedural arrangements in May 2012. There will be the inauguration of Vladimir Putin as the President of the Russian Federation1. The new Prime Minister of Russia will be approved; the new heads of ministries and departments will be appointed; the official countdown of their practical activities in implementing the political and economic objectives, set out in the election papers by Vladimir V. Putin1, will begin. These articles give Vladimir A. a realistic assessment of systemic problems in the development of the ILYIN Russian Federation, which have been accumulated since 1991: Doctor of Economics Professor “In fact, we have survived a massive deindustrialization”; Honored Scientist of the RF “If we call things by their names, it is a systemic corruption”; Director of ISEDT RAS “Eliminating tax evasion through offshore arrangements and [email protected] fraudulent companies”; “Business often came down to nothing more than dividing up state property”. One of the leaders of the Governance and Problem Analysis Center Professor S.S. Sulakshin gives the following assessment of the current state of public administration, “Russian business is corrupted by super profitableness. Any attempts to regulate business in order to balance it for the sake of crisis sustainability and territorial justice, for the sake of socialization in the society and state in Russia are rejected as a whole”. “The state is managed by the rental business. Its qualities, mentioned in part, lead to the fact that Russia has become an asocial and political drift state, they lead to the social explosion, the semi-colonial type of economy (it’s only a matter of perspective) and the type of semi-sovereign and archaizing state. This is an unsuccessful state, which is a derivative 1 Articles by V.V. Putin: Russia muscles up – the challenges we must rise to face. Izvestia. 2012. No. 6. January 17; Russia: The Ethnicity Issue. NezavisimayaGazeta. 2012. January 23; Economic tasks. Vedomosti. 2012. No. 15. January 30; Democracy and the quality of government. Kommersant. 2012. No. 20. February 6; Building justice: A social policy for Russia. Komsomolskaya Pravda. 2012. February 12; Being strong: National security guarantees for Russia. Rossiiskaya Gazeta. 2012. No. 35. February 20; Russia and the changing world. Moscow News. 2012. February 27. Economical and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 2 (20) 2012 5 Bifurcation of a new political cycle of a certain quality of Russian business; its role “What will happen when Dmitri Medvedev is known here. In America Roosevelt used to due to some unknown reasons refuses to contest break the backbone of this wild and independent the presidency in 2012? It’s safe to assume that business pretended to be the first in the system of the fact of a refusal of the current president to state – society and state – business. Russia seems continue his functions would cause large-scale to be waiting for such a leader and a situation”2. crisis in the country”. There is the only leader in the country now, “There’s only one “little” thing left: Dmitry who can do this. He is the newly elected Medvedev has to venture out and cross his own President of the Russian Federation