Public Opinion Survey: Residents of Moldova November 16, 2019 – December 8, 2019 Detailed Methodology • The survey fieldwork was carried out by Magenta Consulting on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research. • Data was collected throughout Moldova (with the exception of Transnistria) between November 16, 2019 and December 8, 2019 through face-to-face interviews in respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of n=1,204 permanent residents of Moldova aged 18 and older and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, region and settlement size. • Sampling frame: Moldova Statistical Databank. Weighting: Data was weighted for age groups and gender using newly released population figures by the National Bureau of Statistics. • A multistage probability sampling method was used, with random route and next birthday respondent selection procedures. • Stage one: All districts (raions) of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups; all regions (with the exception of Transnistria) were surveyed. • Stage two: Selection of the settlements (cities and villages). • Settlements were selected at random. • The number of settlements selected in each region was proportional to the share of population living in the particular type of settlement in each region. • Stage three: Primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 points at the 95% confidence level. • The response rate was 62 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. 2 Mood of the Country In general, would you say that Moldova is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 90% 83% 82% 79% 78% 80% 73% 74% 73% 71% 69% 68% 68% 67% 70% 66% 61% 58% 57% 58% 62% 60% 54% 55% 54% 51% 53% 47% 45% 50% 51% 47% 42% 40% 38% 38% 41% 40% 42% 41% 32% 37% 26% 30% 34% 33% 32% 33% 30% 31% 20% 27% 19% 24% 24%27% 23% 23% 22% 21% 13% 11% 9% 10% 17% 16% 10% 14% 15% 14% 15% 14% 5% 5% 5% 5% 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 11% 1% 10% 8% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 9% 0% 5% 7% Apr-06 Apr-08 Jan-12 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-18 Jun-09 Jun-14 Jun-18 Jun-19 Sep-10 Sep-14 Sep-16 Mar-04 Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-18 Aug-11 Dec-11 Dec-18 Dec-19 Nov-04 Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-09 May-10 *In December 2014, news broke of a major banking scandal involving nearly $1 billion missing from three state banks. The scandal is often referred to as “the stolen billion.” **In 2016, Moldova conducted the first popular election of the president since 1996. Igor Dodon was elected in the second round contest on November 13, 2016. 4 How would you evaluate the prevailing mood of the Moldovan population? Nationwide Chisinau 7% Belief that the future will definitely be better 3% 30% Hope that the future will be somewhat better 28% 21% Not much hope for a better future 27% 11% Apathy, indifference 11% 12% Insecurity, worry, fear for the future 13% 16% Total disappointment, disbelief in any improvement 17% 3% Don't know/No answer 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 5 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the pace of change in the country? I am satisfied; change is happening at the right pace I am dissatisfied; change is not happening fast enough I am dissatisfied; change is happening too fast No change is taking place Don’t know/No answer December 2019 5% 47% 7% 38% 3% June 2019 6% 45% 7% 40% 2% December 2018 10% 46% 10% 33% 1% October 2018 7% 49% 7% 35% 2% June 2018 7% 52% 7% 32% 2% February 2018 5% 44% 6% 42% 2% October 2017 4% 48% 7% 39% 2% March 2017 10% 45% 9% 33% 3% September 2016 3% 38% 7% 49% 3% March 2016 4% 31% 15% 46% 4% October 2015 1% 30% 15% 50% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of Moldova changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer December 2019 1% 15% 52% 18% 9% 5% June 2019 1% 18% 35% 25% 19% 3% December 2018 3% 20% 40% 21% 14% 2% October 2018 2% 18% 41% 23% 13% 4% June 2018 1% 18% 45% 22% 10% 4% February 2018 1% 16% 42% 24% 14% 3% October 2017 15% 45% 21% 16% 3% March 2017 1% 16% 35% 29% 15% 3% September 2016 1% 6% 25% 30% 35% 3% March 2016 1% 6% 23% 32% 36% 2% October 2015 4% 16% 34% 42% 4% September 2014 6% 22% 24% 21% 19% 7% June 2014 4% 20% 33% 23% 14% 6% January 2012 2% 13% 31% 28% 22% 4% December 2011 2% 15% 20% 31% 29% 3% August 2011 5% 23% 34% 17% 18% 3% February 2011 3% 25% 27% 22% 18% 5% September 2010 5% 18% 28% 26% 17% 6% May 2010 2% 14% 30% 30% 19% 5% February 2010 2% 11% 24% 38% 21% 4% November 2009 2% 8% 34% 39% 10% 7% June 2009 1% 9% 22% 42% 20% 5% November 2008 2% 20% 30% 28% 15% 5% April 2008 2% 13% 30% 29% 20% 6% March 2007 4% 24% 32% 27% 10% 4% April 2006 3% 24% 36% 27% 5% 5% November 2004 5% 26% 37% 22% 6% 4% March 2004 3% 23% 37% 25% 9% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household? Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/No answer Nationwide 1% 47% 33% 13% 6% Chisinau 51% 34% 7% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8 What is the most important problem facing Moldova today? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 2 percent of respondents) Economy: Unemployment 40% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 36% Low income 33% Corruption 32% Emigration 22% Poverty 20% Pensions 12% Infrastructure 12% Internal conflicts 11% Economy: Other/General 11% Insecurity 9% Healthcare 8% Education 8% Crime/Public Safety 4% Social services/Benefits 4% Economy: Small business opportunities/Access to loans 3% Agriculture 3% Environment 3% Housing 2% Don't know/No answer 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 9 What is the most important problem facing your town/village today? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 2 percent of respondents) Economy: Unemployment 43% Economy: Cost of living/High prices 35% Infrastructure 30% Low income 25% Emigration 17% Poverty 14% Corruption 12% Cleanliness/Insufficient trash bins 10% Insufficient street lighting 8% Pensions 7% Water 7% Healthcare 7% Insecurity 6% Education 6% Stray animals 5% Social services/Benefits 5% Economy: Other/General 5% Agriculture 4% Economy: Small business opportunities/Access to loans 3% Internal conflicts 3% Housing 3% Crime/Public Safety 3% Environment 3% No (other) problem 3% Lack of daycares and kindergartens 2% Lack of public transportation 2% Electricity 2% Don't know/No answer 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10 What is the most important problem facing your household today? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers; problems mentioned by at least 2 percent of respondents) Economy: Cost of living/High prices 55% Low income 51% Economy: Unemployment 24% Healthcare 21% Pensions 19% Emigration 11% Poverty 10% Housing 8% Social services/Benefits 7% Insecurity 6% Economy: Other/General 4% Water 4% Infrastructure 4% Agriculture 3% Economy: Small business opportunities/Access to loans 3% No (other) problem 3% Corruption 2% Education 2% Environment 2% Electricity 2% Don't know/No answer 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 11 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in our country? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/No answer Nationwide 3% 26% 34% 31% 7% Chisinau 2% 20% 34% 39% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 12 How would you the describe the current status of each of the following items in our country? Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/No answer Freedom of expression 8% 41% 28% 19% 4% Media freedom 7% 45% 22% 14% 12% National security 6% 36% 32% 16% 10% Democracy 3% 27% 35% 27% 8% Law and order 2% 23% 40% 31% 4% Access to justice 2% 26% 29% 26% 18% Human rights 1% 32% 39% 22% 5% Economy 1% 9% 37% 48% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13 Views on Corruption Do you consider our country to be governed in the interest of the majority of people or in the interest of some groups? 8% 14% Majority of people Some groups Don't know/No answer 78% 15 Now I would like to discuss corruption with you. When I say corruption, I mean having to do a favor, give a gift or pay a bribe because someone misuses their position for personal gains. To what extent, if any, has corruption had a negative impact on you? It has had a lot of negative impact It has had some negative impact It has had little negative impact It has not had any negative impact Don’t know/No answer Nationwide 18% 20% 11% 36% 15% Chisinau 22% 26% 13% 29% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16 In the past 12 months, how often, if at all, have you had to do a favor, give a gift or pay a bribe? Not at all Less frequently Monthly Weekly Daily Don’t know/No answer Nationwide 61% 25% 4%<1% 10% Chisinau 59% 24% 7% 1% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17 Whom did you have to do favors for, give gifts or pay bribes to? (Respondents who had to do this in the last 12 months; respondents permitted to supply several answers) Nationwide; n=355 Chisinau; n=93 74% Doctors/Hospital employee 70% 27% Teachers/University official 42% 26% Police 27% 10% Kindergarten administrator 19% 7% Local government officials 3% 7% Other (not local) government officials 4% 5% Border official 4% 2% Judge/Lawyer 2% 1% Business people 5% Don’t know/No answer 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%