STATUS of WOODLAND CARIBOU (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in the JAMES BAY REGION of NORTHERN QUEBEC PRESENTED TO THE Ministère des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du Québec AND THE Grand Council of the Crees (Eeyou Istchee) BY Tyler D. Rudolph, M.Sc., UQAM Pierre Drapeau, Ph.D., UQAM Martin-­‐Hugues -­‐ St Laurent, Ph.D., UQAR Louis Imbeau, Ph.D., UQAT WOODLAND CARIBOU RECOVERY TASK FORCE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY GROUP NORD-­‐DU-­‐QUÉBEC September 2012 This document should be cited as follows: Rangifer tarandus caribou Rudolph, T. D., Drapeau, P., St-­‐Laurent, M-­‐ H. and Imbeau, L. 2012. Status of Woodland Caribou ( ) in the James Bay Region of Northern . Quebec Scientific report resented p to the Ministère des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du Québec and the Grand Council of the Crees (Eeyou Istchee). Montreal, QC. 72 pp. Photo credit: MRNF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The boreal ecotype of forest-­‐dwelling woodland caribou was designated as threatened in 2002 by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC). In 2005 boreal caribou were recognized as vulnerable in Quebec, though a reassessment of this status is due. Whereas predation and hunting are deemed to be the proximate causes of population declines at present, the ultimate cause is attributed to landscape transformation. We analyzed 10 years of demographic and satellite telemetry data acquired from three local populations of boreal caribou in the James Bay region of northern Quebec (Eeyou Istchee). Our assessment of the situation is as follows: 1. Recruitment rates are declining across the region as a consequence of cumulative increases in range disturbance. 2. Overall adult (female) survival is also declining, and this condition is exacerbated by the subsistence harvest. 3. Current amounts of cumulative range disturbance are in excess of what is theoretically required in order to ensure population persistence (i.e. demographic tolerance thresholds). 4. At present all three regional populations (i.e. the Assinica, Nottaway and Temiscamie) are considered not self-­‐sustaining (NSS) and current declines are predicted to worsen in the coming years as critical habitat is further eroded. 5. Road networks are strongly avoided by woodland caribou, which results in functional habitat loss. They also facilitate the deterioration of critical habitat, improving access to human and animal predators and paving the road to local extirpation. Proposed roads L-­‐209 and extension 167 are predicted to substantially diminish functional landscape connectivity and therefore population resilience in addition to promoting conditions consistent with population decline. 6. To reinforce the existing protected areas network we recommend approval of the proposed Waswanipi and Nemaska protected areas in addition to the expansion of the Assinica Park Reserve. i 7. To facilitate population recovery we recommend: a) Avoiding further development within areas known or presumed to be occupied by woodland caribou; b) Targeting net reductions in overall cumulative range disturbance; c) Encouraging an immediate halt to the subsistence harvest of woodland caribou; and d) Forming strategic alliances to ensure the proactive recovery of the James Bay metapopulation. Lastly, we recommend an aerial census of the region in order to refine demographic estimates and more accurately assess population status and long-­‐term viability. In light of recent findings we also recommend that the government of Quebec reevaluate the status of woodland caribou in the province. In closing we suggest a series of new research directions that may assist managers in evaluating risk with relation to forest management and caribou population persistence. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................... viii ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................. xi 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Designated Status ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Background Information .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1. Woodland Caribou on Managed Landscapes ........................................................................................... 2 1.2.2. The Disturbance-­‐Recruitment Relationship ............................................................................................. 5 1.3. Overview of Mandate ................................................................................................................................ 7 2. 1.4.METHODOLOGY Study Area ....................................................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................ 9 8 2.1. Data Sources & Preliminary Treatment............................................................................................. 9 2.1.1. GPS Telemetry ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2. Geospatial Land Cover Maps ........................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2.1. Satellite Imagery ....................................................................................................................................... 10 2.1.2.2. Forest Resource Inventory (FRI) ....................................................................................................... 10 2.1.2.3. Fire History .................................................................................................................................................. 11 2.1.2.4. Mining Development ............................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.3. Spring Aerial Surveys ....................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2. Analytical Procedures ............................................................................................................................. 12 2.2.1. Population Delineation .................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2. Range Delineation .............................................................................................................................................. 13 2.2.3. Critical Habitat Exercise .................................................................................................................................. 14 2.2.4. Demographic Parameters ............................................................................................................................... 14 2.2.5. Delineation of Seasonal Periods ................................................................................................................... 16 2.2.6. Resource Selection Modeling ........................................................................................................................ 17 2.2.6.1. Sampling approach .................................................................................................................................. 17 2.2.6.2. Habitat Classification .............................................................................................................................. 17 2.2.6.3. Resource Selection Functions (RSF) ................................................................................................ 20 3. MANDATE2.2.6.4. .......................................................................................................................................... Model Selection & -­‐ Cross Validation.................................................................................................. 23 21 3.1. What is the status of the woodland caribou population in the territory? ........................ 23 3.1.1. Determine the recruitment, mortality rate and the tendency of the populations ................. 23 3.2. What is the status of woodland caribou habitat? ....................................................................... 31 3.2.1. Determine quality and critical habitat for woodland caribou during all phases of its annual cycle ........................................................................................................................................................................... 31 3.2.2. Evaluate the condition of the habitat and the level of disturbance by herd ............................. 34 3.2.3. Determine the probability of persistence for each herd and the overall population with current habitat condition ................................................................................................ ................................................. 37 iii 3.3. Can each herd and the overall population support further disturbance and to what extent? .......................................................................................................................................................................