Provided by the author(s) and NUI Galway in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite the published version when available. Title Greenhouse gas policies in Ireland 1990 -2012 : Reliance on the land Author(s) Doyle, Colin Publication Date 14-08-01 Item record http://hdl.handle.net/10379/4643 Downloaded 2021-09-25T07:14:02Z Some rights reserved. For more information, please see the item record link above. GREENHOUSE GAS POLICIES IN IRELAND 1990 – 2012 RELIANCE ON THE LAND Colin Doyle Supervisor: Dr. Kieran Hickey Thesis submitted for the Degree of Ph.D Department of Geography School of Geography and Archaeology College of Arts, Social Sciences and Celtic Studies National University of Ireland, Galway April 2014 ABSTRACT This research sought to determine the extent to which national greenhouse gas (GHG) policy relied upon the land, through afforestation, controls on agriculture, and expansion of bioenergy. The implications of this reliance were explored with reference to evolving EU targets and sustainability considerations. The study was based on analysis of national and UNFCCC documents for the period 1990 to 2012, supplemented by interviews with actors and stakeholders. Ireland was assigned a Kyoto limit of +13% re 1990. It was found that savings associated with the land were 5 MtCO2eq, which facilitated a 34% increase in emissions from energy and industry sectors, while still meeting the limit. However, the state also faced a stringent EU target of 20% reduction in emissions by 2020. National actors attributed the difficulty in reaching this target to agricultural emissions, and called for reductions. This view is questioned. In the historical context, agricultural emissions were not excessive. In terms of food energy and life-cycle emissions, Irish agriculture is highly efficient. The conclusion of this research is that the onerous EU 20% reduction requirement was an unintended outcome of EU policymaking and the design of the emissions trading scheme, exacerbated by Ireland’s reliance on afforestation. Regarding sustainability, Irish policy exhibited deficiencies. Forest sequestration could not continue indefinitely, and restricting agricultural emissions ran counter to world population and food projections. Bioenergy targets exceeded indigenous resources, and liquid biofuels would increase net food energy imports, threatening food security. This research suggests an approach to GHG policy in which emissions and sinks related to the land are partitioned from fossil fuel emissions. The state could seek to comply with the EU 20% reduction target for 2020, but for energy and industrial emissions only. Regarding the land, a sustainable policy would be to aim towards long-term GHG neutrality. i Abstract .............................................................................................................................. i List of Tables.................................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations and Organisations ................................................................................... viii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... ix 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Theoretical and Conceptual Frameworks ........................................................... 4 1.2 Factors Shaping Climate Change Policy in Ireland .......................................... 11 1.3 Reviews of Irish GHG Policies ........................................................................ 14 1.4 Research Objectives ......................................................................................... 18 1.5 Chapter Overview ............................................................................................. 22 1.6 Terminology ..................................................................................................... 23 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 27 2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 27 2.2 Historical Analysis ........................................................................................... 28 2.3 Quantitative Analyses ....................................................................................... 30 2.4 Using Energy to Link GHG, Energy and Food Policies .................................. 32 2.5 Incorporating Views of Actors and Stakeholders ............................................. 33 2.6 Interviews with Actors and Stakeholders ......................................................... 37 3 History of Irish GHG Policy 1990 to 2012 ............................................................. 40 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 40 3.2 Pre-Kyoto Policy Period 1990 to 1999 ............................................................ 42 3.3 Planning for Kyoto Compliance 2000-2006 ................................................... 47 3.4 Revised National Strategy and EU Policy Developments 2007-2012 ............. 58 3.5 Summary of Two Decades of GHG Policy ...................................................... 66 4 Assessing National GHG Strategy and Policy Outcomes ....................................... 70 4.1 Arriving at a Balanced View of Ireland’s Performance ................................... 70 ii 4.2 Compliance With Kyoto Protocol .................................................................... 70 4.3 Assessment of Ireland’s GHG Emissions ........................................................ 73 4.4 Analysis of Sectoral Emission Trends 1990-2012 ........................................... 78 4.5 Comparison of Kyoto Compliance across EU-15 ............................................ 93 4.6 Comparison of RES –E Performance across EU-15 ........................................ 94 4.7 Conclusions on Ireland’s Performance ............................................................. 97 5 Irish Agriculture and Forestry ................................................................................ 99 5.1 Agricultural and Forestry GHG Policy Considerations.................................... 99 5.2 Evolution of the Irish Agricultural System .................................................... 100 5.3 Historical GHG Emissions from Agriculture ................................................. 103 5.4 Ireland’s Role as a Food Producer ................................................................. 107 5.5 Agricultural Policy ......................................................................................... 110 5.6 Forestry Policy ............................................................................................... 113 5.7 Agriculture and Forestry – Summary of Policy Contexts .............................. 115 6 Reliance on The Land- Considerations and implications ..................................... 117 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 117 6.2 UNFCCC Obligations and Kyoto Accounting ............................................... 117 6.3 GHG Emissions From Livestock.................................................................... 119 6.4 Irish GHG Policy - Reliance on the Land ...................................................... 123 6.5 Contribution of Land to Kyoto Compliance ................................................... 125 6.6 Implications of Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS) for Agriculture ................ 128 6.7 Potential Impact of EU 2020 Targets on Agriculture ..................................... 131 6.8 Conclusion – Reliance on the Land and Perverse Policy Outcomes .............. 134 7 Bioenergy .............................................................................................................. 137 7.1 Bioenergy as a Low Carbon Option ............................................................... 137 7.2 Bioenergy Crop Characteristics ...................................................................... 138 iii 7.3 Energy and Land-Use Efficiency ................................................................... 144 7.4 Irish Bioenergy Policy .................................................................................... 148 7.5 Land-Use and Fuel-Food Competition ........................................................... 163 7.6 Conclusions – Bioenergy Policy .................................................................... 169 8 Public Consultations ............................................................................................. 172 8.1 Submissions on Energy and Climate Change Policies .................................. 172 8.2 Main Topics Addressed in Submissions ........................................................ 175 8.3 Submissions on Bioenergy ............................................................................. 177 8.4 Submissions on Agriculture ........................................................................... 187 8.5 Submissions on Other Energy Topics ............................................................ 188 8.6 Response to Public Consultations .................................................................. 189 8.7 Conclusions – Stakeholder Engagement .......................................................