Acknowledgements This report, which traces the connections from DOE wind energy R&D to downstream renewable commercial power generation, was prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Purchase Order No. 718187 with Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. Sandia is operated by Sandia Corporation, a subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation. Gretchen Jordan, Principal Member of Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories, provided technical oversight of the project. Jeff Dowd of DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Planning, Budget and Analysis (OPBA) was the DOE Project Manager. Rosalie Ruegg of TIA Consulting, Inc. was principal researcher and author of the report. Patrick Thomas of 1790 Analytics LLC, report co-author, had primary responsibility for the patent analysis. Laura LaMonica of LaMonica Associates provided assistance with the publication citation analysis for Sandia National Laboratories’ wind energy publications. The authors extend appreciation to the following DOE staff who made valuable contributions to the study: Wind research staff of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC), including Maureen Hand of the Research & Development Group for providing on-going liaison with DOE’s Wind Energy Program, and to the following for granting interviews and author assistance: Robert Thresher, former NWTC Director and now Research Fellow; Sandy Butterfield, Principal Engineer, Enabling Research Section; Walt Musial, Senior Engineer, Research & Development Group; Brian Smith, Technology Manager; David Simms, Group Manager, Technology Application & Testing Group; Scott Schreck, Principal Engineer, Research & Development Group; Brian Parsons, Project Leader, Research & Development Group; Jim Green, Senior Project Leader, Technology Acceptance & Distributed Wind Section; Trudy Forsyth, Senior Project Leader, Technology Acceptance & Distributed Wind Section; Tami Sandberg, Information Specialist; and David Christensen and Richard Bolin of the Office of Technology Transfer and finally, Dr. Paul Veers, Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff of the Wind Energy Technology Department at Sandia National Laboratories. Appreciation is extended to industry leaders who offered their insights to the study, including Mr. David Calley, founder and now Chairman of the Board of Southwest Windpower, a major producer of small turbines for distributed use; Mr. Jim Dehlsen, Chairman of the Board of Clipper Windpower, a major producer of large turbines for utility-scale use; and Dr. James Walker, former CEO and now Vice Chairman of enXco, an international company that develops, constructs, operates, and maintains wind energy farms. EERE OPBA and the authors also acknowledge the guidance of Sam Baldwin, EERE Chief Technology Officer in the production of this report. In addition, we thank those who served as EERE Reviewers and as External Expert Panel Reviewers for thoughtful reviews of the draft report and constructive comments: ii DOE Reviewers: Jeff Dowd, Office of Planning, Budget and Analysis (OPBA), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), U.S. Department of Energy Maureen Hand, Research & Development Group, National Wind Technology Center (NWTC), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), U.S. Department of Energy James Browning, Contractor for the DOE Wind Energy Program, BCS, Incorporated External Panel Reviewers: Connie K. N. Chang, Review Panel Chairperson, formerly of Ocean Tomo Federal Services, LLC, and former Research Director and Chief of Staff to the Under Secretary for Technology, Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce Cheryl Oros, Ph.D, Consultant in Applied Research and Evaluation, and retired Director of the Office of Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation, Center for Scientific Review, National Institutes of Health Jeanne Powell, Economic Consultant, and retired Senior Economist, Advanced Technology Program, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. Department of Commerce Notice This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. iii Executive Summary Study Overview The study examines linkages between three decades of DOE research and development (R&D) investments in wind energy and downstream developments through a historical tracing framework and multiple evaluation techniques. Paths of knowledge flow were documented through multiple evaluation techniques, including patent citation analysis, publication co-author and citation analysis, analysis of documents and databases, and interviews with industry and government experts. The study produced a large amount of evidence that links DOE’s Wind Energy Program to key innovations in commercial power generation for both utility-scale and distributed-use power markets. These linkages are apparent in both quantitative, objectively derived data and in qualitative data based on expert opinion. DOE’s R&D activities have fueled the commercialization of wind energy for power generation leaders. The report also documents knowledge flows from DOE’s wind energy research into a number of industry sectors outside of the wind energy industry. Key Study Findings Many dramatic changes in the technology and the industry occurred in parallel to the Program’s actions The report compares wind energy technology and markets for the pre- and post-DOE Wind Energy Program as a backdrop for the investigation of linkages from the Program to downstream developments. In the early 1970’s, prior to the DOE Wind Energy Program, wind technology was rudimentary and poorly performing. Markets for wind energy power generation were nearly non-existent, scientific and technical knowledge bases for improvements were deficient. After three decades of public investment by DOE, the technology is substantially advanced. Wind turbines are supplying energy in both utility-scale and distributed-use markets. An extensive scientific and technical knowledge base has developed. Costs per unit of producing energy with wind are substantially lower than at the outset; system performance, reliability and durability is much improved; and domestic and global markets for multiple applications are robust and growing rapidly. Figure ES-1 on the following page shows the dramatic decrease in system costs and the recent sharp rise in installed capacity of wind turbines from 1980 to 2007. iv Figure ES-1. Decreases in Cost of Energy from Wind and Increases in Cumulative Installed Wind Energy Power Generation Capacity, 1980-2007 Source: DOE/NREL, January 2009. The Program developed a rich network of partnerships with industry partners and others connecting it to commercial successes in today’s wind energy markets Over the period from mid-1970’s through 2008, a rich network of relationships were established between the DOE Wind Energy Program and other organizations—including manufacturers of wind turbines and components, developers and operators of wind farms, electric utilities, engineering and consulting companies, universities, domestic and foreign research laboratories, associations and user groups, and marketers and users of wind energy systems—as illustrated in Figure ES-2. During the three decade period, DOE has entered into over 100 partnerships with more than 65 wind energy technology and engineering companies. These partnerships included leading companies in today’s commercialization of wind turbines both at the utility scale and at the distributed-use scale, e.g., GE Wind Energy, Clipper Windpower, and Southwest Windpower. • GE Wind Energy’s 1.5 MW wind turbine, considered the “workhorse of power generation” and installed in many wind farms to supply utilities with energy, incorporated innovations developed in partnership with DOE. • Clipper Windpower attributed the very existence of its strong-selling Liberty turbine to an R&D partnership with DOE, and it links its scale-up to the largest existent turbines directly to DOE-funded innovations achieved for its Liberty turbine. • Southwest Windpower credited its Skystream, an innovative turbine with strong sales for distributed-use applications, directly to its R&D partnership with DOE. v Figure ES-2. Network of Relationships Between DOE Wind Energy Program and Other Organizations In some cases, development of earlier innovations were funded by DOE in companies that ultimately failed commercially (e.g. Enron); however, many of these innovations continued into commercially successful companies of the present (e.g. GE Wind Energy), as illustrated by the example in Figure ES-3 on the following page. vi Figure ES-3. Example of Paths of DOE-funded Technology from Terminating Companies to Successful Ones Source: Constructed