Aberdeen Station Area Transit Needs Assessment and Market Analysis Task 1 – Transit Needs Analysis final report prepared for Maryland Department of Transportation prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with KFH Group, Inc. March 2009 www.camsys.com final report Aberdeen Station Area Transit Needs Assessment and Market Analysis Task 1 – Transit Needs Analysis prepared for Maryland Department of Transportation prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 4800 Hampden Lane, Suite 800 Bethesda, Maryland 20814 with KFH Group, Inc. March 2009 Aberdeen Station Area Transit Needs Assessment and Market Analysis Table of Contents 1.0 Background.................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Report Content ...................................................................................................... 1-2 2.0 Service Area Characteristics ....................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Geographical Area ................................................................................................ 2-1 2.2 Demographics –Destinations, Origins, and Travel Patterns........................... 2-1 3.0 Existing Transit Related to APG................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 Harford Transit...................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Cecil Community Transit..................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 MTA Commuter Bus............................................................................................. 3-5 3.4 MARC/Amtrak..................................................................................................... 3-8 3.5 Carpools and Vanpools........................................................................................ 3-11 3.6 Taxi and Intercity Bus........................................................................................... 3-11 3.7 Pedestrian/Bicycle................................................................................................ 3-11 3.8 Park-and-Ride Lots ............................................................................................... 3-12 3.9 APG Sponsored Services...................................................................................... 3-13 4.0 Transit Improvements Already Planned.................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Harford TDP Fixed Route Service Alternatives................................................ 4-1 4.2 MARC Growth and Investment Plan (MGIP)................................................... 4-1 4.3 MTA Commuter Bus Improvements.................................................................. 4-2 4.4 Multimodal Center................................................................................................ 4-3 4.5 Other Possible BRAC Improvements................................................................. 4-3 5.0 Challenges...................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 The Nature of EULs .............................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 Getting Transit onto Post ..................................................................................... 5-2 5.3 Other Challenges................................................................................................... 5-2 6.0 Transit Opportunities.................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1 Transit Markets...................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Transit Opportunities ........................................................................................... 6-2 7.0 Planning Assumptions................................................................................................ 7-1 8.0 Potential Improvement Strategies............................................................................. 8-1 8.1 Ridesharing Program............................................................................................ 8-1 8.2 Transit Improvements Already Planned ........................................................... 8-4 8.3 Aberdeen BRAC Transit Improvements Alternatives ..................................... 8-6 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i 7384.410 Aberdeen Station Area Transit Needs Assessment and Market Analysis Table of Contents (continued) 9.0 Impact of Service Improvements on Aberdeen Station........................................ 9-1 9.1 Number of Buses to/from Aberdeen Station.................................................... 9-1 9.2 Buses at One Time (Need for Bus Bays)............................................................. 9-1 10.0 Cost Estimation and Funding Analysis.................................................................... 10-1 10.1 Preliminary Operating Costs Estimates............................................................. 10-1 10.2 Preliminary Capital Costs Estimates.................................................................. 10-4 10.3 Revenue Sources.................................................................................................... 10-6 11.0 Prioritization Needs..................................................................................................... 11-1 11.1 Priority Matrix ....................................................................................................... 11-1 11.2 Preliminary Priorities ........................................................................................... 11-2 Appendix A Maps of Development Areas from APG-BRAC EIS................................................. A-1 Appendix B Summary of Experiences at Other Bases.................................................................... B-1 Appendix C DOD Regulations on Shuttles and Mass Transit....................................................... C-1 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. ii 7384.410 Aberdeen Station Area Transit Needs Assessment and Market Analysis List of Tables 2.1 Summary of Midcase Scenario Impacts from Sage Policy Group Report ............. 2-5 2.2 APG Home-Based Work Productions/Attractions by Mode to APG Aberdeen and Edgewood Areas ........................................................................................ 2-9 2.3 APG Home-Based Work Productions/Attractions by Mode to APG Aberdeen Area .................................................................................................................. 2-10 2.4 APG Home-Based Work Productions/Attractions by Mode to APG Edgewood Area ................................................................................................................. 2-10 3.1 Daily Ridership at Key Stops....................................................................................... 3-3 3.2 MTA Commuter Bus Routes in Harford County...................................................... 3-6 3.3 MARC Service Timetable ............................................................................................. 3-9 8.1 Carpooling Versus Driving Alone .............................................................................. 8-2 8.2 Harford TDP Operating Service.................................................................................. 8-5 8.3 Aberdeen BRAC Operating Service Transit Improvements Alternatives............. 8-9 8.4 MARC Service Enhancements..................................................................................... 8-20 9.1 Total Potential Number of Vehicles Accessing the Aberdeen MARC Station Daily................................................................................................................... 9-2 10.1 Operating Cost of Service............................................................................................. 10-2 10.2 Vehicle Capital Cost Estimates.................................................................................... 10-5 11.1 Alternative Priority Matrix........................................................................................... 11-2 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii Aberdeen Station Area Transit Needs Assessment and Market Analysis List of Figures 2.1 Aberdeen Proving Ground and Surrounding Area ................................................. 2-2 2.2 Conceptual Site Plan ..................................................................................................... 2-4 2.3 Harford County Projected Population Density 2015 ................................................ 2-7 2.4 Aberdeen Total Attraction Trips by TAZ 2000 .......................................................... 2-11 2.5 Aberdeen Total Attraction Trips by TAZ 2015 .......................................................... 2-12 2.6 Aberdeen Total Attraction Trips by TAZ 2035 .......................................................... 2-13 2.7 Edgewood Total Attraction Trips by TAZ 2000 ........................................................ 2-15 2.8 Edgewood Total Attraction Trips by TAZ 2015 ........................................................ 2-16 2.9 Edgewood Total Attraction Trips by TAZ 2035 ........................................................ 2-17 2.10 Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) Drive Time Analysis......................................... 2-19 3.1 Harford Transit.............................................................................................................