Volume I, Issue 10 | October 2020 DPG INDO-PACIFIC MONITOR Volume 1, Issue 10 October 2020 ABOUT US Founded in 1994, the Delhi Policy Group (DPG) is among India’s oldest think tanks with its primary focus on strategic and international issues of critical national interest. DPG is a non-partisan institution and is independently funded by a non-profit Trust. Over past decades, DPG has established itself in both domestic and international circles and is widely recognised today among the top security think tanks of India and of Asia’s major powers. Since 2016, in keeping with India’s increasing global profile, DPG has expanded its focus areas to include India’s regional and global role and its policies in the Indo-Pacific. In a realist environment, DPG remains mindful of the need to align India’s ambitions with matching strategies and capabilities, from diplomatic initiatives to security policy and military modernisation. At a time of disruptive change in the global order, DPG aims to deliver research based, relevant, reliable and realist policy perspectives to an actively engaged public, both at home and abroad. DPG is deeply committed to the growth of India’s national power and purpose, the security and prosperity of the people of India and India’s contributions to the global public good. We remain firmly anchored within these foundational principles which have defined DPG since its inception. DPG INDO-PACIFIC MONITOR This publication is a monthly analytical survey of developments and policy trends that impact India’s interests and define its challenges across the extended Indo-Pacific maritime space, which has become the primary theatre of global geopolitical contestation. It is authored by Cmde. Lalit Kapur (Retd.), DPG Senior Fellow for Maritime Strategy, with the assistance of a team of DPG Research Associates comprising Anushka Nair, Angana Guha Roy, Antara Ghosal Singh and Libni Garg, based on open source reports and publications. Your comments and feedback may be addressed to Anushka Nair at [email protected]. To subscribe, please click here. © 2020 by the Delhi Policy Group Delhi Policy Group Core 5A, 1st Floor, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi- 110003. www.delhipolicygroup.org DPG INDO-PACIFIC MONITOR Volume 1, Issue 10 October 2020 Contents . Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 1 The Global Scene ...........................................................................................................................5 Indo-Pacific Competition ........................................................................................................ 9 East Africa ....................................................................................................................................... 12 West Asia ......................................................................................................................................... 13 South Asia and Indian Ocean Island Nations ................................................................14 South East Asia ............................................................................................................................ 23 East Asia .......................................................................................................................................... 29 Southern Pacific ......................................................................................................................... 36 USA .................................................................................................................................................... 39 DPG INDO-PACIFIC MONITOR | 1 Volume 1, Issue 10 | October 2020 DPG INDO-PACIFIC MONITOR OCTOBER 2020 Overview Covid 19 infected over 12 million in October, raising its total impact list to more than 45 million people. This included POTUS and FLOTUS. The former was hospitalised and returned to the White House after treatment; the latter convalesced at the White House. Over 180,000 people died due to the disease during the month. 170 vaccine candidates were under development, with eight reported to be close to completing the final stage of testing. The IMF World Economic Outlook October 2020 projected a contraction of 4.4% in the global economy during the current year due to the impact of the virus. China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were elected to the UNHRC for the period 2021 – 2023. Honduras ratified the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on October 24, 2020, triggering its entry into force 90 days hence, despite none of the world’s nuclear powers being a signatory. Japan and India joined the Five Eyes in calling on communication service providers to embed safety of the public in their system design and build backdoors to enable the law enforcement apparatuses to bring to justice those using their platforms for sexual exploitation and abuse of children, violent crime, and terrorist propaganda and terrorist attack planning. The UK House of Commons Defence Committee found that the presence of Huawei equipment in British networks increased the risk of cyber attack by individuals and authoritarian states such as Russia and China, thus justifying Huawei’s designation as a high-risk vendor. The Swedish Post and Telecom Authority banned usage of equipment from Huawei and ZTE by carriers bidding for frequencies in an upcoming auction for 5G spectrum and directed that existing equipment from these companies in 5G telecommunications infrastructure be replaced by January 1, 2025. The UN announced that the Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons would enter into force in January 2021, three months after being ratified by the 50th state. The Indo-Pacific construct continued to gather momentum and belie Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s belief that it was “so much sea foam”. Foreign ministers from the Quad countries met in Tokyo during the month, decided on concrete areas of cooperation and announced regularisation of their annual meeting. India invited Australia to participate in Exercise Malabar 2020 and DPG INDO-PACIFIC MONITOR | 1 Volume 1, Issue 10 | October 2020 Australia accepted the invitation with alacrity. Christophe Penot, till recently the French Ambassador to Australia, assumed charge as the first French Ambassador to the Indo-Pacific. China continued to rant against the Indo- Pacific and the Quad even while denying they had a future. It warned that it may detain American nationals unless the Justice Department stops prosecution of Chinese military-affiliated scholars in the US. It also warned Canada to stop granting asylum to Hong Kong democracy activists if it was concerned about the health and safety of the 300,000 Canadian citizens who live in Hong Kong and announced that it was considering stopping recognising BN (O) passports as valid travel documents, an action that would close the path the British government has opened for its overseas citizens in Hong Kong to emigrate and seek UK citizenship. As the US shifted focus from terror and the Atlantic to authoritarianism and the Indo-Pacific and opinion in Western Europe and the US coalesced on the need to effectively counter a sullen and unresponsive China, terror and the manipulation of religious emotions for political purposes reared their head in Western Europe and the Middle East. A speech by President Macron following the barbaric beheading of a teacher led a personal attack using unacceptable language by President Erdogan of Turkey, prompting a statement of support for the French President from India. Pakistan’s National Assembly voted to recall its envoy to France, forgetting that the post has been vacant for the last three months. Meanwhile, the FATF, at its meeting from October 21 – 23, 2020, decided to retain Pakistan on its grey list, along with Indo-Pacific countries such as Cambodia, Mauritius, Myanmar, Uganda, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It also retained North Korea and Iran on its black list. Commemorating the 20th anniversary of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Minister Wang Yi spoke of the leap in China-Africa relations from a “new type of partnership” to a “comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership. Sudan joined the UAE and Bahrain in normalising its relations with Israel, while the European Union agreed to help Mozambique combat the insurgency in the Cabo Delgado region. Reverend Wavel Ramkalawan was sworn in as the fifth President of Seychelles. Fighting intensified in Yemen, impeding relief efforts and calling into question the continued survival of the region’s inhabitants. As the UN arms embargo on Iran came to an end, the US announced sanctions on 18 major Iranian banks and five Iranian entities to deprive Iran of funds to carry out its support for terror activities and to punish it for spreading disinformation and attempting to undermine US elections. Delegations from Bahrain, Israel and the US met in DPG INDO-PACIFIC MONITOR | 2 Volume 1, Issue 10 | October 2020 Manama to sign an agreement committing the three to advance a strategic agenda for peace and prosperity in the Middle East. President Trump tweeted that all US troops should be out of Afghanistan by Christmas, while the US launched air strikes against the Taliban in Helmand province. Attacks by militants in Ormara and North Waziristan (FATA) left 20 security personnel dead. Pakistan notified a ban on TikTok due to its “immoral/indecent content”, even as reports emerged that it was preparing to sell two islands