Unfinished Revolutions: Yemen, Libya, and Tunisia after the Arab Spring A comparative research study aiming to understand post-revolution transitions to peace and reconciliation Dr. Ibrahim Fraihat Research Methodology Reconciliation in context: Mapping transitions in post- revolution Middle East Post-Conflict Development Post-Conflict Reconstruction National Reconciliation Transitional Justice • Truth Seeking • Reparation • Accountability Fraihat 2016 Yemen Libya Tunisia • Security and military reform • Deterioration of security • Protection of Revolution situation that led to: Committees 1- Two states running in parallel: officials and rebels 2- Two government and two parliaments 3- Three governments • The Houthi rebellion (north) • Ownership Law 4/1978 • Marginalization •The South Yemen issue • Refugees and IDPs • Polarization • War on al-Qaeda & ISIS • Spread of culture of “Victor and Vanquished” Yemen Libya Tunisia • We do not want to know • We want to know the full • We want to know, BUT… truth • A tribal society. Knowing • The truth will lead to fair • Tunisian society is not a the truth will lead to social treatment of the tribes who tribal one. Tunisians tend to tension and instability. opposed the regime before be peaceful and adhere to the revolution – end law. Everyone knows who monopoly of the revolution. tortured them. • Political parties (politicians) • Knowing the truth will help • Knowing contributes to are involved in violations. revolutionaries implement isolation laws: Nedaa’ Tunis their “Political Isolation and Tajamuu’, in particular. Law.” • Starting Point? • Starting Point? • Starting Point? •2011 •March 19, 2011 •1987 •2004 •February 22, 2011 •March 20 •1994 •1969 •January 1, 1956 •1986 •1951 •1978 Yemen Libya Tunisia • Violations since 1978 have • Violations since 1969 have • Transitional justice law yet to be compensated yet to be compensated calls for compensating victims since 1956 • Huge violations (1994, 2004 • Funds are available for • Lack of financial wars, etc.), but a lack of compensation resources financial resources • Is financial compensation effective for addressing violations like the Abu Salim prison massacre? • Reinstatement of tens of • Rehab—as part of • Politicization of rehab— thousands of Southerner compensation—and the most violations were military members dilemma of inflating the against Islamists • Returning plots of land bureaucratic system • Employment discrimination Yemen Libya Tunisia • GCC Initiative sacrificed • Too much accountability • Drafting a transitional the principle of (revenge and eradication), justice law that handles accountability to resolve a e.g. Benghazi bombing, Saif accountability political crisis al-Islam trail •First draft by civil society • Transition of former • Uproot the regime • Reform of former ruling ruling party to post- party in post-revolution revolution period without period (Mubadara, Nedaa’ reforms Tunis) • No laws to manage • Political Isolation Law • A law protecting the transition • Exclusion by law revolution • No transitional justice law • Exclusion through • No exclusion transitional justice law • No accountability Yemen Libya Tunisia • No plans or policies to • Purging is the approach to • Vetting individuals is the reform institutions reform (keeping judges in approach to reform positions is a problem, and dismissing them is a bigger problem) • Institutional reform is • Comprehensive reform of • Reform mainly includes complex due to the the bureaucratic system security, media, previous era’s decision- administration, judiciary makers remaining in power • No new institutions have • Many current institutions • Formation of new, been formed yet are not functional independent institutions from civil society (e.g. Committee Against Torture) 6. National Dialogue Yemen Libya Tunisia • UN-sponsored national • UN-led negotiations • Homegrown national dialogue conference (NDC) dialogue led by civil society, the Tunisian General Labor Union • The NDC focused on • Revolution completely • Arab revolutions without content—problems—rather lacked theory, and absence theoretical framework—the than on building of dialogue exacerbates the national dialogue could lay philosophy, theory problem foundations for theory • The NDC represented all • In need of dialogue that is • Fully representative segments of society— representative of all dialogue that included distinctive in terms of political parties state, civil society, political representation and parties mechanisms • Challenge lies in “ownership” of dialogue You can order the book through Amazon or Yale University Press directly at http://yalebooks.com/book/9780300215632/unfinished-revolutions THANK YOU Q & A .