Pacific Islands - Online Climate Outlook Forum (OCOF) No. 158 Country: Kiribati TABLE 1: Monthly Rainfall Oct-2020 Aug- Sep-2020 Station (include data 2020 Total period) 33%tile 67%tile Median (mm) Rank Total Total Rainfall (mm) (mm) (mm) Beru (1945-2020) 11.9 43.1 0.6 18.9 63.4 33.0 3/63 Butaritari (1931-2020) 237.8 89.7 136.7 92.4 181.7 126.0 43/83 Kanton (1937-2020) 7.0 31.2 15.5 Kiritimati (1921-2020) 0.0 1.6 0.2 4.0 18.0 10.4 8/95 Tarawa (1926-2020) 32.8 18.7 58.7 31.8 101.0 62.7 41/85 TABLE 2: Three-month Rainfall for August to October 2020 SCOPIC forecast probabilities Verification: Three-month Total 33%tile 67%tile Median Consistent, Near- Station Rank based on NINO3.4 May-June 2020 consistent, Rainfall (mm) B-N N A-N LEPS Inconsistent? Beru (1945-2020) 55.6 Below normal 114.0 204.0 139.5 4/62 34 39 27 23 Near-consistent Butaritari (1931-2020) 464.2 Normal 428.4 641.2 564.0 37/83 32 37 31 23 Consistent Kanton (1937-2020) 108.6 186.7 134.0 37 40 23 26 Kiritimati (1921-2020) 1.8 Below normal 27.0 58.0 44.8 3/94 35 34 31 3 Consistent Tarawa (1926-2020) 110.2 Below normal 211.0 418.7 279.4 19/84 32 44 24 35 Near-consistent TABLE 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using SCOPIC for December 2020 to February 2021 Predictor and Period used: NINO3.4 for September to October 2020 Hit-rate Below Median Above LEPS (%) (%) Station Median Rainfall Median [whole [whole (prob) (mm) (prob) numbers] numbers] Beru (1945-2020) 90 363.6 10 46 82 Butaritari (1931-2020) 68 889.0 32 12 70 Kanton (1937-2020) 81 66.3 19 33 72 Kiritimati (1921-2020) 82 93.5 18 34 77 Tarawa (1926-2020) 78 677.8 22 29 76 Hit-rate Below 33%ile 67%ile Above LEPS (%) Normal (%) Station Normal Rainfall Rainfall Normal [whole (prob) [whole (prob) (mm) (mm) (prob) numbers] numbers] Beru (1945-2020) 69 161.0 28 672.7 3 44 56 Butaritari (1931-2020) 52 622.0 33 1093.0 15 16 57 Kanton (1937-2020) 58 30.3 40 209.3 2 41 62 Kiritimati (1921-2020) 51 43.3 47 133.5 2 39 57 Tarawa (1926-2020) 73 386.8 23 859.3 4 46 61 TABLE 4: Monthly and Seasonal Climate Outlooks using ACCESS-S for December 2020 to February 2021 Monthly rainfall Seasonal rainfall Monthly Tmax Seasonal Tmax Monthly Tmin Seasonal Tmin Summary Statements Rainfall for October 2020: Beru and Kiritimati recorded below normal rainfall while normal rainfall was recorded at Butaritari and Tarawa for October. Beru recorded its third driest October on record while Kiritimati had its eighth driest. Accumulated rainfall for August to October 2020, including outlook verification: Below normal rainfall was recorded at Beru, Kiritimati and Tarawa while Butaritari recorded normal rainfall. Outlook verification is near consistent in Beru and Tarawa while Butaritari and Kiritimati are consistent. Beru recorded its fourth-driest August-October on record while Kiritimati recorded its third driest. Outlooks for December 2020 February 2021: 1. SCOPIC: The outlook for all Kiribati stations favours below normal rainfall. All stations are exceptional in their forecast skill except for Butaritari which is high. 2. ACCESS-S: Monthly rainfall: The outlook favours below normal rainfall for most parts of the Kiribati group for December, the main exception being central regions of the eastern Kiribati EEZ where near-normal to above normal is favoured. Monthly maximum and Minimum temperatures: The outlook for all the Kiribati group favours below normal temperatures for December 2020. Seasonal rainfall: The outlook for most parts of the Kiribati islands favours below normal rainfall for December 2020 to February 2021, the main exception being central regions of eastern Kiribati where near-normal is favoured. Seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures: The outlook favours below normal temperatures for December 2020 to February 2021. NB: The X LEPS % score has been categorised as follows: Very Low: X < 0.0 Low: 0 ≤ X < 5 Moderate 5 ≤ X < 10 Good: 10 ≤ X < 15 High: 15≤ X < 25 Very High: 25 ≤X < 35 Exceptional: X ≥ 35 TABLE 5: Stakeholder Engagement- Evaluations of how effective NMS engage with stakeholders Product Date: Stakeholder Total Number Number of Number of of Participants males females October 2020 Government Climate Bulletin 2nd October +118 +45 +73 Sectors, Non- Government Organisations, Fisheries (coastal and offshore) sector, SPREP, General Public and internal staffs. Government EAR Watch 15th October +118 +45 +73 Sectors, Non- Government Organisations, Fisheries (coastal and offshore) sector, SPREP, General Public and internal staffs. Media Media Release 6th October 43 28 15 Colleagues – Government and Non- Government entities. Internal Staffs Government Ocean Bulletin 2nd October +118 +45 +73 Sectors, Non- Government Organisations, Fisheries (coastal and offshore) sector, SPREP, General Public and internal staffs. Total 161 73 88 .