NEEDS AND POPULATION MONITORING © NPM 2016 SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC MOBILITY DYNAMIC MONITORING REPORT - IX WITH UPDATED POPULATIONS JUNE 2016 Preface Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) Mobility Dynamic Monitoring – June 2016 assessed 5,490 locations within 14 accessible governorates of Syria with 96% coverage1. This round involved 12 team leaders, 17 Data Process Assistants, 148 enumerators and 16,663 key informants (KIs). This exercise focused on the movement of the target population categories that occurred solely during the month of June 2016. NPM Mobility Dynamic Monitoring Questionnaire (B3 Form – Annex III) is used for data collection. Data collection is based on direct observations in the field and the best estimates of the KIs at the community level (also referred to as village/neighborhood), who are expected to have a good knowledge of the communities they are living in. NPM Mobility Dynamic Assessment includes eight major categories of targeted population (Annex I). The first category is related to the current resident population within Syria affected by shelter damage and who is forced to move to another shelter within the same location. The following two categories are the resident populations within Syria who are currently absent from their location of origin because they fled to another location (either within or out of Syria). The fourth category relates to returnees2 who had fled the location before but returned, and the last four categories refer to Syrian and non-Syrian internally displaced persons (IDPs) who arrived or left the location during the assessed period. Catching mobility patterns in real time has proven a difficult exercise considering the extremely dynamic population movements within Syria. During this exercise, held in June 2016, NPM had a total coverage of 96%. In addition, during June, eight locations were assessed for the population baseline, having a total of 5,498 locations covered during June. NPM has 100% coverage in ten governorates and more than 95% in three governorates. Coverage remained lower however in Homs with 59% of the locations. The data and figures reflected in the present report are the result of the NPM Mobility Dynamic Monitoring data collection across Syria carried out in June 2016. This data has to be considered as estimates and not as absolute numbers of the population residing in the assessed governorates. All data sets for the Mobility Dynamic Monitoring exercise are available to the interested humanitarian partners for further analysis. This report is issued in collaboration with UN-OCHA Turkey. 1NPM assessment of the communities is carried out by taking the list of communities on existing datasets (p-code), used by OCHA and humanitarian agencies in Syria. 2Definition of returnees is not related to the criteria of return in terms of safety and dignity, nor with any durable solutions defined strategy. 1 NPM - Mobility Dynamic Monitoring (June 2016) Coverage and Mobility As in previous rounds, this MDM report includes some qualitative background information collected by NPM enumerators in the field. The purpose of this is to provide some background to the mobility and displacement dynamics observed, as well as to give some details of the impact of this displacement on the governorates concerned. This is given at the start of each governorate profile. Also added is updated overall population figures and details of population trends over time, comparing different rounds of the MDM. This is given at the end of each governorate profile. In this round, a total of 5,490 locations were assessed, with the chart below showing coverage per governorate. MDM— June coverage and Mobility Dynamics TOTAL LISTED LOCATIONS: 5,708 COVERED BY MDM-JUNE’16: 5,490 (87%) LOCATIONS HAVING MOBILITY DYNAMIC: 2,371 (42%) KEY INFORMANTS Data collection based on the best estimates of the KIs carries limitations of its own. Although a great majority of the KIs are people in key positions who are expected to have the best knowledge of the communities they are living in, they can only share their best estimates with the enumerators. Apart from this, some of the interviews were conducted remotely without direct observations in the locations, due to issues of access and security constraints and hence resorting again to best possible estimates. Last but not least, it is important to note that NPM has no means of verification on the destination and exact figures submitted under the fled-out and not returned population categories (resident population that fled and not returned, IDPs that left and not returned), either if these fled out populations reached the destination or crossed the border. For that reason, population figures aresubject to an undefined margin of error since they are based on the best estimates of the KIs interviewed at the location of origin. Key Informants by type Male Female Total NGO/Humanitarian Aid Worker 1,080 65 1,145 Community Based Organization Leader 193 37 230 Community Leader 2,015 7 2,022 Health Worker 1,082 177 1,259 Religious leader 577 1 578 Teacher 2,055 268 2,323 Trader/Shopkeeper 2,187 24 2,211 Local administration 2,687 210 2,897 Social Worker 1,648 86 1,734 IDP Group Leader 800 2 802 Other 1,414 48 1,462 Total 15,738 925 16,663 2 NPM - Mobility Dynamic Monitoring (June 2016) NPM Mobility Dynamic Monitoring - June 2016 Summary of the Overall Displacement Situation during June, due to clashes between the Islamic State of Iraq and the The month of June saw a significant increase in the number of Levant (ISIL), opposition forces as well as Kurdish forces. As a result internally displaced persons (IDPs), people affected by shelter of the fighting in this area, Menbij had the highest numbers of IDP damage as well as those who fled within Syria. Even though the arrivals, IDPs leaving, as well as resident population fleeing within the cessation of hostilities agreement between the Government of Syria country. In comparison to the high displacement figures, the number (GoS) and opposition forces is still in force, many attacks took place of individuals returning to their pre-displacement locations continues during June, which caused displacement movements across the to decrease from 43,000 in May to 38,044 in June. This is now the country. Similar to the previous month, the governorates of Aleppo lowest number of returnees NPM has recorded since October 2015. and Idleb reported the highest numbers of IDPS, with 68,049 IDPs Furthermore, the number of people fleeing out of Syria also dropped for both governorates which is 68% of the overall IDP number from 14,241 in May to 11,622 individuals in June. The only recorded for the month. Especially, the sub-district of Menbij in population category that did not see much changes, is the IDPs that Aleppo, reported various population categories seeing mobility left their location during the month, which decreased from 43,970 in May to 43,607 individuals in June. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) 1+ IDPs That Left Their Location June 2016 June 2016 100,486 individuals 43,607 individuals June 2016 saw a high rise of IDPs across Syria, with more than twice The number of IDPs seeing secondary displacement during the as much people displaced in comparison to May. A total of month of June stood at 43,607 which is very similar to the May 100,486 persons were reportedly displaced from their locations figure of 43,970 individuals. Out of the total number, 47% of these solely during the month. Out of this total number, 46,379 IDPs fled locations in Aleppo. This was followed by Idleb, where individuals were displaced in Aleppo, which is 46% of the total 27% of the IDPs experienced further displacement. Also for this number. This figure alone is almost equivalent to the total IDP population category, the Menbij sub-district had the highest number recorded in May, which clearly shows the increase of number of IDPs leaving their location at sub-district level with displacement during June. Menbij in northwestern Aleppo had the 9,104 individuals. This number represents almost half of the total highest number of displaced population at sub-district level across number of IDPs leaving their locations in Aleppo. The sub-district of the country with 11,231 IDPs. The governorates of Idleb, Idleb had the second highest numbers of IDPs leaving, which was Damascus and Homs also reported significant numbers of IDPs. followed by the A’zaz sub-district located in Aleppo. 3 NPM - Mobility Dynamic Monitoring (June 2016) NPM Mobility Dynamic Monitoring - June 2016 Based on its community level assessment held in Syria, the NPM Mobility Dynamic Monitoring estimates the following population movements that occurred solely during the month of June 2016. Current Resident Population Affected by Shelter Damage June 2016 During the month of June, the number of current resident 14,652 individuals population affected by shelter damage almost tripled in comparison to the previous month. In May, the number reported for this population category stood at 5,743 individuals and in June the figure increased to 14,652 individuals. This is the highest figure recorded since March 2016. Out of this number, 62% of the affected population are in Aleppo, followed by Idleb with 14% and Homs with 9%. Again for this month, the sub-district of Jebel Saman in Aleppo was the sub-district with the highest number of population affected by shelter damage across the country. The number increased significantly from 1,854 individuals in May to 7,164 individuals in June. The main reasons for this increase are the continuous airstrikes and shelling by the GoS in this part of the country, particular in the city of Aleppo.