MILITARY-BASE IMPACT ON A LOCAL ECONOMY: A CASE STUDY OF THREE MILITARY BASES IN TWO METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS By KENNETH E. HAWKINS A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2005 Copyright 2005 by Kenneth Eugene Hawkins This thesis is dedicated to my three children; Rachel Anne, Beatrice Rose, and Quinton Zachary with the hope of inspiring them to achieve higher goals than mine. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank my wife Maria for her support, understanding, and help during the time of separation and hardships, especially since she also earned her Doctorate while working and keeping our son. I thank my mother and Aunt Faye for instilling in me the importance of an education and the pursuit of my dreams. I thank my mother-in law, Dr. Veronica Free, for the advice and support from a professional educator’s perspective. I thank my father-in-law and step-mother-in-law (Drs. Mario and Carol) for their support and assistance during my years in the graduate program at the University of Florida. I thank the professors in the Department of Geography and the office assistants for their time and effort in helping me through the years in graduate school. I thank Dr. Paul Zwick (a member of my supervisory committee) and Professor Stanley Latimer. Their classes and wisdom in uses of geostatistical analysis and spatial analysis were instrumental in my research. I thank Dr. Jane Southworth for her assistance and advice as a member of my supervisory committee, and for her classes in remote sensing. Finally, I thank my mentor, tutor, and inspiration in studying quantitative methods: Dr. Timothy Fik. I hope to do him justice with my work and will remember the efforts and assistance he gave me for many years. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................. iv LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................ vii LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... viii ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................1 Base Impact on Urban and Economic Growth of the Localized Area .........................1 Problems Associated with Base Realignment and Closures.........................................1 Base Realignment and Closure, Economic Impact, Accessibility, Military Bases, and the Central Business District ..............................................................................5 Determining Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)..........................................5 Concern over Economic Impact ..........................................................................19 Alleviating Negative Economic Impact with Accessibility ................................20 2 METHODS.................................................................................................................23 Economic Growth and Development because of Military Bases and the Central Business District: Economic Base Theory and Accessibility .................................23 Military Bases, Central Place Theory, and the Central Business District (CBD)...............................................................................................................23 Economic Base Theory........................................................................................24 Methods for a New Approach to Predicting Economic Impact from BRAC.............25 Military Bases Applied to Economic Models .....................................................25 Previous Economic Impact Studies from Military-base Closures.......................28 New Approach to Predicting Economic Impact from BRAC ....................................34 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) 2005 and Florida's Bases ....................34 Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida.........................................................................35 Jacksonville NAS and Mayport NS Study Areas and Diversity of Industrial Employment: 1980 and 2000...........................................................................37 MacDill AFB and Tampa, Florida.......................................................................38 Recovering from Economic Impact Assuming Tampa or Jacksonville Bases Are Selected for BRAC 2005 ..........................................................................43 v Software Used for Our Study ..............................................................................43 3 MAPPING URBAN GROWTH AND CHANGE .....................................................44 Software Used to Create the Images for the Study Areas ..........................................45 Creating Shapefiles for the Study Areas.....................................................................48 Establishing Study Area Boundaries Using Shapefiles..............................................49 The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area...................................................49 Mayport NS Study Area ......................................................................................52 Jacksonville Naval Air Station (Jax NAS) ..........................................................54 Tampa-MacDill AFB Study Area .......................................................................59 Empirical Approach to Study Areas...........................................................................62 Dependent Variables and Each Study Area.........................................................62 Independent Variables and Each Study Area ......................................................63 Results of Choropleth Maps for the Jax NAS Study Area ..................................65 Results of Choropleth Maps for the Mayport NS Study Area.............................66 Results of Choropleth Maps for the MacDill AFB Study Area ..........................68 Review of Choropleth Maps Results...................................................................69 4 REGRESSION ANALYSES OF THE STUDY AREAS ..........................................84 Jacksonville NAS Study Area Regression Analyses Results .....................................85 Mayport NS Study Area Regression Analyses Results ..............................................89 MacDill AFB Study Area Regression Analyses Results............................................92 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION .........................................................................112 Summary...................................................................................................................112 Concluding Remarks ................................................................................................116 APPENDIX KEY TO INDEPENDENT VARIABLES.................................................120 LIST OF REFERENCES.................................................................................................131 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ...........................................................................................137 vi LIST OF TABLES Table page 2-1. Employment populations for Jacksonville Naval Air Station (Jax NAS) study area ...........................................................................................................................39 2-2. Employment populations for Mayport NS study area..............................................40 2-3. Employment populations for MacDill AFB study area............................................42 3-1. Key to dependent variables.......................................................................................64 3-2. Jax NAS dependent variables...................................................................................70 3-3. Mayport NS dependent variables. ............................................................................72 3-4. MacDill AFB dependent variables. ..........................................................................73 4-1. Jacksonville NAS study area regression results for percentage change in commercial area between 1973 and 2000. ...............................................................96 4-2. Jacksonville NAS study area regression results for percentage change in median household income between 1980 and 2000..............................................................98 4-3. Jacksonville NAS study area regression results for percentage change in residential area between 1973 and 2000. .................................................................99 4-4. Mayport NS study area regression results for percentage change in commercial area between 1973 and 2000. .................................................................................102 4-5. Mayport NS study area regression results for percentage change in median household income between 1980 and 2000............................................................103 4-6. Mayport NS study area regression results for percentage change in residential area between 1973 and 2000. .................................................................................105 4-7. MacDill AFB study area regression results for percentage change in median household income between 1980 and 2000............................................................107