Small Wind Turbines in Kenya An analysis with Strategic Niche Management Lynn Vanheule Master: Sustainable Energy Technology Institution: Delft University of Technology Date: 21 March 2012 Student nr: 1333186 Context of this report This report is part of the fulfilments of the master program of ‘Sustainable Energy Technology (SET)’ of the Faculty of Applied Sciences at Delft University of Technology. The thesis falls within the ‘Energy and Society’ track of the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management (TPM). This specialization studies the economical, societal, market and policy aspects of (energy) innovations in society. The graduation committee consists of: Dr. Wim Ravesteijn Chairman; Associate Professor at the Department of Technology Dynamics & Sustainable Development (TIDO) at TPM Dr. Linda Kamp First supervisor; Assistant Professor at the Department of Technology Dynamics & Sustainable Development (TIDO) at TPM Ing. Boukje Vastbinder Second supervisor; Lecturer at Delft Centre for Entrepreneurship (DCE) at TPM ii Abstract Rural electrification has been a long-standing goal in Kenya, but there is still a long way to go with only 4% rural access to electricity. On top of that, if electricity is available, it is most commonly delivered by the grid, which suffers from power failures and growing costs. Therefore, there lies a large potential in small wind turbines (SWT) for the rural electrification of Kenya in areas endowed with sufficient wind resources. The research analyses the status of the SWT sector by using Strategic Niche Management and the Multi-Level Perspective as its theoretical frameworks. It studies how the innovation is influenced by factors at three levels: the exogenous ‘landscape’; the dominant way of doing things or ‘regime’; and the ‘niche’, the level where the innovation emerges and develops. Furthermore, this research includes some new aspects to better adapt to the particular case of SWTs in the Kenyan context. The results of this analysis serve as input for developing strategy recommendations for all niche practitioners and for a start-up company, RIWIK, in particular. This research finds that the obstacles for sector growth go much beyond the low public awareness and high upfront cost of small wind turbines. It are the underlying dynamic niche developments that are at the root of the preliminary state of the sector. In addition, the external environment shows to have a large influence on the sector. At one hand, niche upscaling benefits from the tensions in the regime. On the other hand, up-scaling suffers from several landscape factors such as corruption, socio-economic factors and social beliefs. Last, the analysis proves useful for outlining practical guidelines for all stakeholders, and for fine-tuning and underpinning the business approach of a start- up company. This thesis also suggests possible ways in which the theory and methodology could be enhanced. Key words: Small Wind Turbines, Kenya, Strategic Niche Management, Multi-Level Perspective, operational tool iii Acknowledgements I would like to thank everyone who has supported me throughout my thesis project. A special thank you goes to the following contributors: I would like to thank my direct supervisor, Linda Kamp first and foremost. She has continuously supported me on all different levels for completing my thesis successfully, and has always taken the efforts to listen to me and advise me. Besides that, I am also grateful for her support during the bumpy road of finding an appropriate and exiting thesis project. My grateful acknowledgements go to Wim Ravesteijn, the chairman of my graduation committee, and Boukje Vastbinder, my second supervisor, for providing me valuable feedback in the last stages of my thesis project. At the TU Delft, I would also like to thank Otto Kroesen, who has helped me preparing for my internship to Kenya by valuable practical advice and various contacts. A grateful acknowledgment goes to Bart Fugers and Eric de Jong from RIWIK for giving me the opportunity to do this project. I have also greatly benefitted from their inputs and advice during the course of my thesis, and the various contacts they provided me with. I would also like to thank the CICAT-StuD fund for their financial support for my internship. A special thanks to Steven and Barbara for proofreading the manuscript and to Jon Leary for his extensive comments on my thesis. I am also truly grateful to Bart, my family, and Jos and Marjo, for their support and understanding throughout the entire graduation project. Furthermore, I want to thank Mercy Aruwa and Collins Obora. They have been helpful during my stay in Kenya by introducing me to the Kenyan life and accompanying me to various interviewees. Also David Ndegwah and Mary Wairia of Tangaza College have been of great support with their practical advice. I am also grateful to Dalton Mathenge, Vincent Mutinda, Khanjan Metha and Eric Ngondi for actively assisting me in my research by linking me to various others interviewees. And last but not least, to all those who agreed to my questioning during the fieldwork, and helped me in so many other ways in Kenya, thank you! iv Table of Contents Context of this report ................................................................................................... ii Abstract ...................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... v List of Figures .............................................................................................................. vii List of Abbreviations ..................................................................................................... ix 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Start-up Company ‘RIWIK’ ................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Theoretical background ....................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Problem statement .............................................................................................................. 3 1.5 Research design ................................................................................................................... 4 1.6 Research methodology ........................................................................................................ 5 1.7 Document structure ............................................................................................................ 7 2. Theoretical framework ........................................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Strategic Niche Management .............................................................................................. 9 2.3 Multi-Level Perspective ..................................................................................................... 18 2.4 Operationalization of the frameworks .............................................................................. 23 2.5 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 28 3. Niche description .................................................................................................. 30 3.1 Technology description ..................................................................................................... 30 3.2 Wind potential in Kenya .................................................................................................... 35 3.3 History of SWTs in Kenya ................................................................................................... 37 3.4 Stakeholders ...................................................................................................................... 39 3.5 Small wind turbines on the Kenyan market ...................................................................... 45 3.6 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 52 4. Strategic Niche Management analysis ................................................................... 54 4.1 Current state of development ........................................................................................... 54 4.2 Voicing and shaping of expectations ................................................................................. 56 v 4.3 Network formation ............................................................................................................ 63 4.4 Learning processes ............................................................................................................ 78 4.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 90 5. Multi-Level Perspective .......................................................................................