City of Redding . rights reserved.All 8 Holding Company 201 ©Black &©Black Veatch COOPERATIVELY PREPARED WITH Table of Contents i REU | POWERING A STRONG COMMUNITY Table of Contents Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Definitions List .......................................................................................... 1 IRP Project Partners ............................................................................................................................................. 4 1.0 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Summary of the 20-Year Resource Plan ..................................................................................... 1-5 2.0 Purpose and Background ................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1 Overview of the Integrated Resource Planning Process ...................................................... 2-1 2.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 2-2 2.3 State Laws, Policy, and Regulations ............................................................................................. 2-2 2.4 Other Relevant State Legislation and Executive Orders ...................................................... 2-9 2.5 Federal Energy Legislation ............................................................................................................ 2-14 2.6 Public Stakeholder Process ............................................................................................................ 2-15 3.0 Existing Resources and System Description .............................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Generating Facilities ........................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.2 Renewable Energy Resources ......................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 Contractual Purchases ....................................................................................................................... 3-6 3.4 Transmission Assets and Adequacy ............................................................................................. 3-8 3.5 Distribution Assets and Adequacy .............................................................................................. 3-12 3.6 Natural Gas Commodity, Transportation and Storage ....................................................... 3-16 3.7 Wholesale Energy Trading ............................................................................................................. 3-17 4.0 Energy and Demand Forecast ......................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Historical Energy Use and Peak Demand ................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions ................................................................................... 4-3 4.3 Forecast Results.................................................................................................................................... 4-6 4.4 Comparison to CEC Forecast ........................................................................................................... 4-7 5.0 Customer Programs, Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Resources ................... 5-1 5.1 Energy Efficiency Program Background .................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Current Energy Efficiency Initiatives ........................................................................................... 5-2 5.3 Commercial Rebates ........................................................................................................................... 5-4 5.4 Additional Programs ........................................................................................................................... 5-4 5.5 Demand Response Programs .......................................................................................................... 5-6 5.6 Transportation Electrification ........................................................................................................ 5-8 6.0 The Need for Additional Resources and Resource Options ................................................. 6-1 6.1 Existing System Capacity Balance ................................................................................................. 6-1 6.2 Existing System Scenario Energy Requirements and Renewable Energy levels.......................................................................................................................................................... 6-3 6.3 Supply Side Resource Technology Costs and Characteristics ........................................... 6-8 6.4 Energy Efficiency ................................................................................................................................ 6-16 6.5 Energy Storage .................................................................................................................................... 6-17 Table of Contents 1-ii 7.0 Modeling Assumptions, Tools, and Methodology .................................................................... 7-1 7.1 Modeling Assumptions ...................................................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 Ascend Analytics Planning Suite – Tools for Modern Resource Planning .................... 7-4 8.0 Evaluation and Results ...................................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1 Economic Evaluation Framework ................................................................................................. 8-1 8.2 Scenario Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 8-2 8.3 Consolidated Results .......................................................................................................................... 8-5 8.4 Detailed Results of the Preferred Expansion Plan ................................................................. 8-8 8.5 Sensitivity Cases ................................................................................................................................. 8-17 8.6 Retail Rates and the Preferred Expansion Plan ..................................................................... 8-17 8.7 The preferred Plan in consideration of Future Conditions and risks........................... 8-19 8.8 The preferred Plan with consideration of Localized Air Pollutants and Disadvantaged Communities ........................................................................................................ 8-21 9.0 Conclusions and Recommended Expansion Plan .................................................................... 9-1 Appendix A. CEC Standardized Tables for the Adopted Resource Scenario ............................. A-1 Appendix B. Stakeholder Feedback Form Results ............................................................................. B-1 Appendix C. Intermittency Analysis ........................................................................................................ C-1 Attachment A: Solar Project Generation Data ......................................................................................... C-5 Attachment B: Stochastic Model Results ................................................................................................... C-7 Appendix D. Ascend Analytics Methodology ........................................................................................ D-1 Appendix E. RPS Compliance and Enforcement Document ............................................................ E-1 Appendix F. Energy Storage Compliance Plan ..................................................................................... F-1 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1 Summary of Key IRP Filing Requirements and Location in IRP ....................................... 1-3 Table 1-2 Projects Considered in the IRP Expansion Plans (All Capacities are the Maximum Rated and Not Firm Capacities) ............................................................................... 1-6 Table 1-3 Projects in the Expansion Plan Scenarios Modeled (All Capacities are the Maximum Rated and Not Firm Capacities) ............................................................................... 1-7 Table 1-4 Heat Diagram of Scenario CPWC and RE Results .................................................................. 1-12 Table 1-5 Detailed CPWC Results for the Preferred Expansion Plan, Scenario H........................ 1-13 Table 1-6 Renewable Energy and REC Adequacy in the Preferred Expansion Plan, Scenario H ............................................................................................................................................. 1-14 Table 2-1 Estimated 2030 GHG Emissions by Sector (MMTCO2e) ....................................................... 2-5 Table 2-2 POU Share (in 1,000 MTCO2e) of 2030 GHG Emissions Projected by CARB ............... 2-5 Table 2-3 Summary of Key IRP Filing Requirements and Location in IRP ....................................... 2-8 Table