STUDY ON SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTED LAND USE IN THE MONGOLIAN CROP SECTOR ULAANBAATAR 2020 STUDY ON SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTED LAND USE IN THE MONGOLIAN CROP SECTOR Implemented by THE GERMAN-MONGOLIAN COOPERATION PROJECT ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE STUDY ON SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTED LAND USE IN THE MONGOLIAN CROP SECTOR Disclaimer CONTENTS This study is published under the responsibility of German-Mongolian FOREWORDS ii Cooperation Project Sustainable Agriculture (MNG 19-01) and Subproject Expert dialogue on agriculture for climate change adaptation of the Mongolian LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS viii crop sector (MNG 19-02), which are funded by the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). All views and results, conclusions, proposals or 1. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE CROP FARMING recommendations stated therein are the property of the authors and do not SECTOR OF MONGOLIA necessarily reflect the opinion of the BMEL. Natsagdorj L., Erdenetsetseg B. 1 2. TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTED FARMING Gantulga G., Odgerel B., Bayarmaa Kh., Ganbaatar B., Nyambayar B., Tsogtsaran B. 31 3. OPTIMIZING HUMUS, WATER, AND NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT IN MONGOLIA IN CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS Guggenberger G. 75 4. SUSTAINABLE FARMING ALTERNATIVES IN MONGOLIA UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS Meinel T. 114 5. ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE ARABLE FARMING SECTOR OF MONGOLIA Modelling of expected yield developments in spring wheat and potato production Noleppa S., Hackenberg I. 160 Edited by: Prof. Dr. G.Gantulga 6. INDEX-BASED CROP INSURANCE: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONGOLIA Dr. B.Erdenebolor Kuhn L., Bobojonov I. 222 7. MONGOLIA’S POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONAL APPROACHES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN CROP FARMING Dagvadojr D. 248 Copyright© 2020, German-Mongolian Cooperation Project “Sustainable Agriculture” All rights reserved. Reprints or reproduction of any kind only with permission of the publisher. i THE GERMAN-MONGOLIAN COOPERATION PROJECT ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE STUDY ON SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTED LAND USE IN THE MONGOLIAN CROP SECTOR FOREWORD The German-Mongolian cooperation project domestic researchers specializing in agricultural meteorology, soil science, “Sustainable Agriculture”, implemented through a agronomy and agricultural engineering. Based on research findings and using collaboration agreement between the Federal Ministry successful practical examples, the study provides insights into currently of Food and Agriculture of Germany and the Ministry of applied approaches and solutions for the adaptation of crop production Food, Agriculture and Light Industry of Mongolia, entered to climate change, and discusses potential adaptation approaches for the its 3rd phase in 2019. The project focuses on development future. Part of the study also assesses the embedment of climate change of a sound seed and variety system, dissemination of good adaptation goals and related measures in the policy and legal frameworks of agricultural practices and introduction of risk management the agricultural sector. approaches in the crop sector of Mongolia. The project The negative impacts of climate change are leading to yield losses, price activities can be structured in: increases of staple foods, and food shortages, thus threatening agricultural • Delivery of policy advice for enhancing the legal frameworks in the productivity and compromising the access of the vulnerable and low- agricultural sector of Mongolia towards international standards; income population segments to food. On behalf of the German-Mongolian • Provision of support and advice to key governmental and non- cooperation project “Sustainable Agriculture”, I am pleased to present this governmental actors in the sector, incl. farmer associations, research study as a contribution to the sustainable development of the food and institutes and extension service providers for strengthening the agriculture sector, poverty reduction and food security in Mongolia. institutional frameworks of the crop sector; • Advanced and follow-up training of decision-makers, specialists and farmers for building the human resource capacity of the crop sector; Dr. Kather A. • Provision of information and research for the specific needs of project Team Leader partners and target groups. Supplementary climate funds approved by the Federal Ministry of Food GERMAN-MONGOLIAN COOPERATION PROJECT and Agriculture in 2019 enabled us to initiate and implement the subproject “SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE” “Expert dialogue on agriculture for climate change adaptation of the Mongolian crop sector”. A major achievement of this subproject is the completion of a comprehensive study on the effects of climate change on the Mongolian crop sector and options for climate change adaptation, which is presented hereby. Climate change is increasingly affecting agriculture. In Mongolia, the annual average temperature has risen by more than 2°C since 1940, and the crop sector is exposed to threats resulting from increasing frequencies and impacts of weather extremes, dryness and extraordinary heat, and a dramatic change in the seasonal distribution of precipitation. Elaboration and implementation of a long-term strategy for climate change adaptation is thus becoming inevitable, especially for countries with harsh climate such as Mongolia. The Government of Mongolia has set goals for the reduction of greenhouse gas emission and the adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change. For informed decision-making and turning decisions into actions at policy and production levels, reliable information and knowledge on sustainable cropping methods and approaches for adaptation of crop production to climate change are essential. This study therefore presents an important contribution to the development of a climate change adapted crop sector in Mongolia. It was conducted by a team of international and ii iii THE GERMAN-MONGOLIAN COOPERATION PROJECT ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE STUDY ON SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTED LAND USE IN THE MONGOLIAN CROP SECTOR FOREWORD The world population has already surpassed 7.5 billion The cooperation project “Sustainable Agriculture” of the Ministry of and is projected to reach 10 billion in 2050 and 12 billion Food, Agriculture and Light Industry of Mongolia and the Federal Ministry by 2100. Along with the rapid population growth, the of Food and Agriculture of Germany implemented a subproject on climate importance of securing the availability of and access to change adaptation in the crop sector in 2019. An important outcome of this food is continuously increasing. With future food security, subproject is the study presented hereby. It was conducted by a team of far from being ensured, mankind is facing the additional acknowledged international and national researchers, and the results were threat of climate change and global warming. presented and discussed at the international conference “Sustainable and In our country, where the intensity of warming has been Climate Change Adapted Land Use in the Mongolian Crop Sector” that took three times the global average, resulting in a 2.4° C increase place in Ulaanbaatar in December 2019. I am pleased that the study is now of air temperature during the last 80 years, this issue requires particular also available in print so that it is accessible to a wider circle of policy and attention. Having joined numerous international conventions and treaties decision makers, scientists, students and farmers. on mitigation of the negative impacts of climate change and adaptation I would like to use this occasion to express my sincere gratitude to the team to climate change, the parliament and the government of Mongolia have of the German-Mongolian cooperation project “Sustainable Agriculture”. I initiated national policies and programs and are working towards their wish every success in your future endeavors! successful implementation. The “National Program on Climate Change” was first approved by the parliament in 2000, and in a renewed version in 2011. The “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Mongolia” for the Paris Bolorchuluun Ts. Agreement was submitted in 2015 and 2019 to the UNFCCC Secretariat. Director General of the Department of Policy and Furthermore, climate change adaptation goals and related measures have Coordination of Crop Sector Development been defined in the “Mongolia Sustainable Development Vision 2030” and the “Green Development Policy of Mongolia (2014-2030)”, both of which are MINISTRY OF FOOD, AGRICULTURE AND LIGHT INDUSTRY currently being implemented. The government of Mongolia is planning a new program for the crop sector development. The “Atar 4 – Sustainable Crop Sector Development” program will start in 2020, and we are already preparing the action plan of this program which defines the adaptation to climate change as a priority. The program aims at supporting the sustainable development of crop production through the adaptation to climate change, stabilizing crop yields, protecting the soil, improving soil fertility, facilitating breeding of new drought tolerant varieties and experimentation with and introduction of new crops, increasing the domestic seed production and the availability and use of fertilizers and pesticides as well as introducing the application of smart (digital) technologies in crop production. iv v THE GERMAN-MONGOLIAN COOPERATION PROJECT ON SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE STUDY ON SUSTAINABLE AND