Northern Gas Networks Long term development statement 2019 Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Version and Circulation ............................................................................................................................. 4 Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Background .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 1 1 Gas in our future energy systems ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Chapter 2 2.1 Demand Forecasts Overview.................................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Demand Forecasts ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 3 3.1 Supply ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 3.2 Storage in the Network.............................................................................................................................................................. 16 Chapter 4 4.1 Local Transmission System Development Plan ................................................................................................................. 17 4.2 Below 7barg Distribution System ........................................................................................................................................... 18 Chapter 5 5.1 Gas in Our Future Energy Systems ........................................................................................................................................ 20 5.2 Gas Network Innovation Competition (NIC) ...................................................................................................................... 21 5.3 Network Innovation Allowance (NIA) ................................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix 1 A1.1 Demand ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 A1.2 High Pressure Tier Planning ................................................................................................................................................... 27 A1.3 Below 7 barg planning .............................................................................................................................................................. 27 A1.4 Investment Procedures and Project Management ........................................................................................................ 27 Appendix 2 A2.1 Annual Demand ......................................................................................................................................................................... 30 A2.2 Key Assumptions in Developing NGN Demand Forecasts .......................................................................................... 33 A2.3 Forecast Comparisons ............................................................................................................................................................ 38 Appendix 3 A3.1 Annual Flows .............................................................................................................................................................................. 40 A3.2 Peak Flows .................................................................................................................................................................................. 43 Appendix 4 A4.1 Northern LDZ Schematic ........................................................................................................................................................45 A4.2 North East LDZ Schematic .................................................................................................................................................... 46 Appendix 5 A5.1 Connection Services ................................................................................................................................................................ 48 A5.2 Connections to the Local Transmission System ........................................................................................................... 48 A5.3 Electricity Flexible Generation ............................................................................................................................................ 48 A5.4 Additional Information Specific to System Entry and Storage Connections...................................................... 49 A5.5 Additional Information Specific to System Exit Connections .................................................................................. 50 A5.6 National Transmission System (NTS) Connections ..................................................................................................... 50 A5.7 Distribution Network Connections ................................................................................................................................... 50 A5.8 Self Lay Pipes or Systems ..................................................................................................................................................... 50 A5.9 Reasonable Demands for Capacity .................................................................................................................................... 50 Glossary........................................................................................................................................................ 52 - 2 - Foreword The 2019 Long Term Development Statement contains essential information on the process for planning the development of the gas distribution system, including demand and supply forecasts, system reinforcement projects and associated investment. Published at the end of our 2019 planning process for our two Local Distribution Zones, North East and Northern, the main body of the document provides an overview of the key topics, with all details contained in the appendices. We have spent much of this year documenting and submitting our plans for the RIIO GD2 Price Review period and this document provides some additional detail and context to our demand chapter. Our planning teams have been involved in project work with the wider industry to understand the implications that changing usage of the gas transmission and distribution networks may have on gas demand and network planning in the short, medium and long term. In the past we have forecast our peak day demand to fall at the same rate as our annual gas demand, but now with changing use of the system we no longer expect this rate of decline, particularly over the medium and long-term horizons. Developments over the past year have meant we now have 14 flexible generation site connections on our network and 10 biomethane connections, with a further 7 are due to connect before the end of January 2020. This changing use of our system means that our customer base is even more diverse, and our network planning processes are evolving to ensure we can continue to successfully meet our customer demands. Iain Foster Head of Asset Integrity Northern Gas Networks - 3 - Version and Circulation Version Number: Final version 2019 This document, and any updates, to this document will be circulated electronically and uploaded to our website. Disclaimer The Long-Term Development Statement provides a ten-year forecast of transportation system usage and likely system developments that can be used by companies contemplating connecting to our system or entering into transport arrangements, to identify and evaluate opportunities. This document is not intended to have any legal force or to imply any legal obligations regarding capacity planning, future investment and resulting capacity. - 4 - Background The Long-Term Development Statement is the product of an annual cycle of planning and analysis. The statement sets out our assessment of future supply and demand for natural gas on our network. It also outlines proposals for investment in our local transmission and distribution systems. Interested parties may use this information to gain an understanding of how we expect gas demand to evolve on our networks over the next 10 years. This will help them plan accordingly when considering connection opportunities. Northern Gas Networks manages the development, operation and maintenance of the High Pressure and below 7bar Distribution Networks. These extend from the inlet valves of the pressure regulating installations at the National Transmission System interface, to the outlet of the consumer’s emergency control valve in the North East of England, Northern Cumbria and West, North and East Yorkshire. The below map summarises the extent of NGN’s two Local Distribution Zones (LDZs): LDZ No. Location 1 North Tyne 1 2