Dr. philos. Dissertation Vegard Bye, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo The End of an Era – or a New Start? Economic Reforms with Potential for Political Transformation in Cuba on Raúl Castro´s Watch (2008-2018). ii To Cuba’s youth, wishing them the opportunity to form a future they can believe in. iii iv INDEX PREFACE ..................................................................................................................................................... IX 1: INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. THE SETTING OF THE STUDY ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. OUTLINE OF THE DISSERTATION .................................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 2: RESEARCH DESIGN ......................................................................................................... 11 2.1. THE PROBLEM OF STUDYING POLITICS IN CUBA ..................................................................................................... 11 2.2. INTERPLAY BETWEEN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL VARIABLES ........................................................................... 14 2.3. RESEARCH STRATEGY .................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.4. SOURCES ............................................................................................................................................................................ 20 CHAPTER 3: SUMMARY OF MAIN REFORMS ON RAÚL CASTRO´S WATCH .............................. 23 3.1. THE ECONOMIC SITUATION AT THE OUTSET OF THE REFORM ERA .................................................................... 23 3.2. THE PROCESS LEADING TO THE REFORM AGENDA.................................................................................................. 26 3.3. THE REFORM AGENDA ................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.4. REFORMS LEADING TO TRANSFORMATION? ............................................................................................................ 35 CHAPTER 4: THEORETICAL AND COMPARATIVE-EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE STUDY ........................................................................................................................................................ 37 4.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................ 37 4.2. CATEGORISING SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TRANSITIONS OR TRANSFORMATIONS .......................... 38 4.3. THEORETICAL APPROACHES FOR ECONOMIC VS. POLITICAL TRANSFORMATIONS ......................................... 41 4.4. LIBERAL TRANSITION THEORIES ................................................................................................................................. 44 4.4.1 The death of the democratic transition paradigm? ........................................................................... 44 4.4.2. Linz and Stepan´s Five Arenas of Democracy ....................................................................................... 48 4.4.3. Linz and Stepan´s approaches to the study of post-totalitarianism .......................................... 50 4.4.4. Fukuyama´s ”way to Denmark” .................................................................................................................. 51 4.4.5. The political economy of democratic transitions ............................................................................... 54 4.4.6. Przeworski and ‘the liberalisation from dictatorship’ ..................................................................... 55 4.5. THE CASE FOR ‘TRANSFORMATIVE DEMOCRATIC POLITICS’ – OR SCANDINAVIAN-STYLE SOCIAL DEMOCRACY .............................................................................................................................................................................. 57 4.6. ALTERNATIVES: ‘DELIBERATIVE’ OR ‘CONSENSUS’ DEMOCRACY ........................................................................ 63 4.7. THE ISSUE OF ‘EARLY WINNERS’ AND ‘EARLY LOSERS’ .......................................................................................... 64 4.8. TRANSITION FROM COMMUNISM ................................................................................................................................ 66 4.8.1. Kornai and The Political Economy of Communism ........................................................................... 66 4.8.2. A Historian´s perspective on the fall of the USSR ................................................................................ 68 4.8.3. Post-Communist elite re-circulation ......................................................................................................... 69 4.9. THE PATTERN OF TRANSFORMATION TO AUTHORITARIAN MARKET ECONOMIES ......................................... 71 4.9.1. The concept of ‘neo-patrimonialism’–and its application to Latin America ......................... 71 4.9.2. Transformation to oligarchic neo-patrimonialism: the case of Angola................................... 75 4.9.3. Transformation to oligarchic neo-patrimonialism: Russia and the arrival of the Oligarchs ............................................................................................................................................................................ 77 4.9.4. The case of China as a reference point .................................................................................................... 79 4.9.5. The case of Vietnam as a reference point ............................................................................................... 88 4.10. RESILIENT POST-COMMUNISM AND PRAGMATIC ACCEPTANCE ........................................................................ 96 4.11. WHAT MAKES STATES FAIL ALTOGETHER? ........................................................................................................... 98 4.12. THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE EMERGENCE OF A ‘SECOND WORLD BLOC’.............................. 100 4.13. EXIT VS. VOICE? ......................................................................................................................................................... 103 4.14. SOME PECULIAR CUBAN ASPECTS TO BEAR IN MIND........................................................................................ 105 4.14.1. Remembering ‘Cuban exceptionalism’ ............................................................................................... 105 4.14.2. Cuba´s ‘democratic birth defect’ ........................................................................................................... 107 4.15. THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT POST-CASTRO LEGITIMACY ......................................................... 110 4.16. HOW AND WHERE DOES THE THEORETICAL-EMPIRICAL LITERATURE FIT INTO OUR “ROADMAP”? ... 113 v 4.17. THE OVERARCHING ISSUES OF THE STUDY ......................................................................................................... 117 CHAPTER 5: TRANSFORMATIVE CHALLENGES, HYPOTHESES AND INDICATORS ............... 122 5.1. THE MEETING OF THE PRACTICAL REFORM AGENDA AND THE TRANSITION LITERATURE ....................... 122 5.2. THE THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF THE STUDY ................................................................................................ 123 5.3. THE NINE CHALLENGES WITH HYPOTHESES AND INDICATORS ........................................................................ 125 5.4 SOME DILEMMAS WHEN ENTERING THE CRITICAL JUNCTURE (2018-2021): ............................................ 140 CHAPTER 6: THE EVOLVING ECONOMIC ARENA .......................................................................... 142 CHALLENGE 1: ....................................................................................................................................................................... 142 SIGNIFICANT RETREAT OF THE STATE IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, I.A. AS A MEASURE TO MEET THE MASSIVE NEED FOR INCREASED FOOD PRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 142 CHALLENGE 2: ....................................................................................................................................................................... 162 LOOSENING OF STATE CONTROL AND DOMINANCE OF THE ECONOMY – GROWTH OF NON-STATE ECONOMY – AIMING AT SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT GENERATION ................................................... 162 CHALLENGE 3: ....................................................................................................................................................................... 210 MASSIVE NEED FOR PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENTS TO SPUR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 210 CHAPTER 7: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGES ............................. 235