A WORLD BANK STUDY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Climate Change and Migration Public Disclosure Authorized EVIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani, Public Disclosure Authorized George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux Editors Climate Change and Migration A WORLD BANK STUDY Climate Change and Migration Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux, Editors Washington, D.C. © 2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14 World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9971-2 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9972-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Cover photo: Young women fetching water from a well in Taroudant Province, Morocco. © Julio Etchart / The World Bank. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Climate change and migration : evidence from the Middle East and North Africa / edited by Quentin Wodon, Andrea Liverani, George Joseph, and Nathalie Bougnoux. pages cm “World Bank Study.” ISBN 978-0-8213-9971-2—ISBN 978-0-8213-9972-9 1. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects—Middle East. 2. Migration, Internal—Environmental aspects— Africa, North. 3. Climatic changes—Economic aspects—Middle East. 4. Climatic changes—Economic aspects— Africa, North. 5. Middle East—Environmental conditions. 6. Middle East—Economic conditions. 7. Africa, North—Environmental conditions. 8. Africa, North—Economic conditions. I. Wodon, Quentin. II. World Bank. HB2093.3.A3C55 2013 304.80956--dc23 2013015475 Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents Acknowledgments xi Overview xiii Introduction xiii Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on Households xv Coping and Adaptation Strategies xvi Migration xix Remittances xxii Conclusion and Policy Implications xxiii Note xxvii Bibliography xxvii PART 1 Synthesis 1 Chapter 1 Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region 3 Introduction 4 Perceptions about Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events 8 Migration 13 Remittances 20 Other Coping and Adaptation Strategies 21 Community and Government Programs 27 Conclusion 30 Notes 31 Bibliography 32 PART 2 Focus Countries and Data 37 Chapter 2 Focus Countries 39 Introduction 39 Criteria for the Choice of Focus Countries 40 Algerian Context 43 Egyptian Context 47 Moroccan Context 50 Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 v vi Contents Syrian Context 53 Yemeni Context 56 Conclusion 59 Notes 59 Bibliography 59 Chapter 3 Data Collection 65 Introduction 65 Household Survey Questionnaire 66 Household Survey Data Collection 68 Qualitative Data Collection 81 Conclusion 86 PART 3 Impacts, Coping Strategies, and Adaptation Mechanisms 87 Chapter 4 Perceptions of Climate Change, Weather Shocks, and Impacts on Households 89 Introduction 89 Data 90 Perceptions of Climate Change 92 Impact on Households 97 Conclusion 103 Annex 4A: Distribution of Perceptions by Quintiles of the MCA’s First Factor 104 Bibliography 105 Chapter 5 Weather Shocks, Impacts, and Households’ Ability to Recover in Morocco 107 Introduction 107 Data 109 Basic Statistics 110 Correlates of the Likelihood of Shocks and the Ability to Recover 114 Conclusion 120 Bibliography 120 Chapter 6 How Do Households Cope with and Adapt to Climate Change? 123 Introduction 123 Data and Methodology 124 Household Coping Mechanisms 127 Household Adaptation Strategies 132 Community-Level and Government Responses 139 Conclusion 141 Bibliography 142 Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 Contents vii PART 4 Climate Change and Migration 143 Chapter 7 Do Changes in Weather Patterns and the Environment Lead to Migration? 145 Introduction 145 Data 147 Basic Statistics 149 Correlates of Resident and Nonresident Migration 155 Conclusion 160 Annex 7A: Reasons for Migration by Country, Five Countries Sample 161 Bibliography 162 Chapter 8 Climate-Induced Migration in the MENA Region: Results from the Qualitative Fieldwork 163 Introduction 163 Rationale for Qualitative Work and Methodology 165 Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in Rural (Sending) Areas 170 Focus Groups and In-depth Interviews in Urban (Receiving) Areas 174 Heterogeneity between Countries in the Reasons for Migration 179 Interviews with Key Informants: The Example of Morocco 182 Conclusion 184 Annex 8A: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth Interview Questions in Urban Areas 185 Annex 8B: Focus Group Discussion and In-depth Interview Questions in Rural Areas 186 Annex 8C: Key Informant Questions for Government Officials and Nongovernmental Experts 188 Notes 189 Bibliography 189 Chapter 9 Is Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case 191 Introduction 191 Data and Methodology 192 Results 194 Conclusion 202 Bibliography 202 Chapter 10 Extreme Weather Events and Migration: The Case of Morocco 205 Introduction 205 Climate Change and Migration • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 viii Contents Data 206 Basic Statistics 208 Correlates of the Probability of Migration 213 Conclusion 217 Bibliography 218 PART 5 Remittances 221 Chapter 11 Do Remittances Reach Households Living in Unfavorable Climate Areas? Evidence from the Republic of Yemen 223 Introduction 223 Data and Methodology 225 Results 234 Conclusion 236 Notes 237 Bibliography 237 Chapter 12 Does the Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Human Development Depend on the Climate of Receiving Areas? 241 Introduction 241 Data and Methodology 243 Results 244 Conclusion 250 Bibliography 251 Boxes 8.1 Testimony from a Rural Respondent in Algeria 171 8.2 Testimony from an Urban Respondent in the Republic of Yemen 176 Figure 3.1 Sampling Methodology for the Household Surveys 75 Maps 3.1 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Algeria 69 3.2 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the Arab Republic of Egypt 70 3.3 Maps of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in Morocco 71 3.4 Map of the Selected Area for the Household Survey in the Syrian Arab Republic 72 3.5 Map of the Selected Area