Bill Oppenheim, November 3, 2004–Third-Crop Sires: Awesome 4. Distorted Humor: from 185 foals, 94 winners (51%), FROM THE DESK OF... $10.6-million in purses, 17 SW (9%), 24 SH (13%), including 2003 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Bill Oppenheim Funny Cide. Entering stud fee: $12,500; 2005 stud fee: $50,000. THIRD-CROP SIRES: AWESOME 5. Awesome Again: from 215 foals, 67 winners (31%), The torch has been passed. The great sires of the last now $9.85-million in progeny earnings, 7 SW (3%), 13 thirty years, now nearly all dead or retired; Sadler’s SH (6%), two Breeders Cup winners Saturday, Wells , 24 next year, the only one still left--and Storm including Classic winner Ghostzapper, whose 124 Beyer Cat, from the next generation, will be 22. This isn't is probably the most reliable top Beyer figure of the news: what is news is that a new group of Young decade (he had run a 128 on a wet-fast track--which Turks is emerging in Kentucky. They may well not can sometimes lead to off-the-graph high figures--at dominate like the great sires of the Golden Age of the Monmouth in the Iselin); that conservatively equates to last thirty years--I don't see anybody about with 15%, a Timeform 136, in my view (which makes the Beyer 18% SW; these days, 10% SW is probably a seriously 128 a Timeform 140 if you take it at face value). good sire. So the standards do appear to be changing, and the top sires probably won't be as dominant as the As you'll see from the accompanying table, Awesome last group was--but new top sires there are, and at Again's fifth-place progeny earnings total of just under least five of them are the top five North American third- $10-million is miles clear of the rest of the third-crop crop sires by cumulative progeny earnings. sires, led by now Japanese-based Wild Rush ($7.1- This group of sires has two crops of three-year-olds, million) and Ten Most Wanted's sire, Deputy last year's and this year's, including both years' Commander. The elite group has broken away from the Kentucky Derby (and Preakness) winners. Here's a pack, but it's worth remembering that this 'pack' also short synposis of what the top five have accomplished includes the likes of Touch Gold, the excellent young so far (ranked by cumulative progeny earnings, Stormy Atlantic, new Kentucky sire Northern Afleet, excluding Japan): and the rapidly improving grass sire, Arch. As promising as they all are, though, it's the top five who have been 1. Elusive Quality: from 203 foals (3 crops) of racing responsible for two Kentucky Derby winners in two age, 109 winners (54%), $14 2/3-million in earnings, tries, and this year's probable Horse Of The Year, 16 SW (8%), 22 SH (11%), including 2004 Kentucky Ghostzapper, and likely Champion Three-Year-Old, Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones. Entering Smarty Jones. stud fee: $10,000; 2005 stud fee: $100,000. So, statistically, what these sires are scoring are 2. Grand Slam: from 322 foals (he and the other what need to now be regarded as current industry Ashford sire, Tale of the Cat, have over 300 foals in standards, not what the greats of the past achieved. three crops; the other three top five sires have between I'm not saying become totally relativist, but we must be 185-215), 135 winners (42%), $12-million in progeny practical. So far these five sires have notched up 68 earnings, 15 SW (4.7%), 37 SH (11.5%), including SW and 126 SH from 1,241 foals -- 5.5% SW/foals, 2003 BC Sprint winner Cajun Beat. Entering stud fee: and 10.2% stakes horses/foals. I think these $30,000; 2005 stud fee: $85,000. percentages will improve slightly, because two-year-old 3. Tale Of The Cat: from 316 foals, 149 winners crops win and place in stakes at only half the rate of (47%), $11.4-million earnings, 13 SW (4%), 30 SH older crops; therefore, sires with fewer total crops have (9.5%); Champion Sire of 2-Year-Olds 2003. Entering a higher percentage of two-year-olds, who have lower stud fee: $25,000; 2005 stud fee: $65,000. stakes percentages, among their total foals. Oppenheim cont. “SMART STRIKE — THE VERY DEFINITION OF A ‘RACEHORSE’ SIRE.” – Owner•Breeder, October 2004 PHONE (859) 873-7300 • FAX (859) 873-3746 • E-MAIL: [email protected] • WEB SITE: www.lanesend.com As they have more crops, their percentages of But Wilko's not all of a sudden the equal second- stakes horses therefore gradually increases. The best colt in Europe: he's exactly what he was before same is true of the percentage of winners/foals he went. The race went in a Beyer 98 (= Timeform statistic. This has traditionally been over 60% for 110), and all that happened was that all the fancied Top 50 North American sires, though undoubtedly American colts didn't get the trip. So we learn a lot the increase in foal crop sizes is contributing to these from Wilko's win, in my view--including that American lower percentages, too. But, at the end of the day, owners and trainers who are running scared over the it's those handful of top-class performers who sell BC Juvenile and are afraid of 'over-racing' their two- the seasons, which is why the stud fees of these top year-olds in general, are not doing themselves any five sires are all at least 2 1/2 times what they favors. There are a lot of opportunities being missed, I started out at: it's none of those percentages, really. don't doubt. Wilko's connections were smart, and It's the names like Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and lucky--but they were also brave, and sometimes that's Ghostzapper--that's what sells those seasons. what can make the difference, too. But don't let anybody tell you Wilko's a 122; not on this planet he's not; not yet, anyway. He was just a very well-placed The Wilko Lesson... horse who proved you've got to get the trip. Amid all this excitement, the forgotten horse of great significance is Wilko, Awesome Again's first The Vocabulary Lesson... winner on the day, author of a massive upset in the Now it's time for the vocabulary lesson. This has to BC Juvenile. This needs to be looked at very closely. do with the word "accurate", as in, when John I read in yesterday's Racing Post that the European Ferguson released the Darley stud fees last week, his handicapper was going to promote him to equal accompanying document began with the following second European two-year-old colt, along with G1 assertion: "Common perception is that the market is National S. winner Dubawi. Forget it. European around 15% down on last year. This is not accurate." champion two-year-old colt Shamardal hammered Whoa, Nelly. This IS accurate. What John meant to Wilko in the G3 Vintage S. at Goodwood at the end say is "This isn't the whole story," or "But, if we break of July: he beat him 2 1/2 lengths that day, which is the overall figures down into deciles, they tell a about 6 'pounds', though he won very easily-- somewhat different story," something like that. But the Raceform actually rated him 11 pounds above Wilko. figures he was referring to WERE accurate: the gross But let's be conservative (just this once): the six for the 2,168 yearlings sold at Goffs and Tattersalls pounds is about right, because Wilko spent most of was down 15% from the corresponding sales in 2003. the rest of his British campaign finishing right there That is a fact, and it is accurate. By all means, break with other horses Shamardal hammered in the the figures down further, qualify them, whatever: but, Dewhurst. please, as Mark Twain put it in his great essay, But Wilko did establish two very important virtues "Fenimore Cooper's Literary Offences"--"Use the right during his campaign, which attracted the attention of word, not its second cousin." bloodstock agent Jamie McCalmont, on the hunt for California owner Paul Reddam: Wilko had plenty of seasoning--always a very important ingredient in American racing--and, in the last of his ten British races for owner Susan Roy and trainer Jereny Noseda, he also demonstrated he could stay on. This was in the one-mile G2 Royal Lodge S. at Ascot, September 25. He got in a world of trouble in the straight, and when he finally extricated himself, Perfectperformance had flown and Scandinavia was chugging on by; nonetheless, a few observers noted Wilko was staying on again, quite determinedly. The rest is now history. McCalmont thought the colt had shown enough to justify further action on his part, and the plan--to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-- began to take shape. Reddam bought majority interest, they enlisted jockey Dettori, and off they went to Texas. The colt was by a son of Deputy Minister, he had seasoning, he stayed on--all in all, they felt he justified his place in what turned out to be a small, eight-horse field, though they thought a placing was the best they could expect. But guess what? Nothing else stayed, jockey Dettori saw them all dying in front of him, and they just kept going.