Toledo-Detroit Ridership Feasibility & Cost Estimate Study PREPARED FOR: The City of Toledo and Toledo Metropolitan Area Council of Government PREPARED BY: Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. MAY 2019 FINAL REPORT Toledo-Detroit Ridership Feasibility & Cost Estimate Study Table of Contents CHAPTER 1 PROJECT OVERVIEW 1-1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................1-1 1.2 PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVE .................................................................................................1-3 1.3 PROJECT SCOPE .............................................................................................................1-4 1.4 PROJECT METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................1-4 1.4.1 STUDY PROCESS .................................................................................................................... 1-6 1.5 FREIGHT RAILROAD PRINCIPLES ..........................................................................................1-7 1.6 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT .........................................................................................1-8 CHAPTER 2 APPROACH TO CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT 2-1 2.1 HISTORY OF PASSENGER SERVICES AND STUDIES .....................................................................2-1 2.2 MICHIGAN RAIL FREIGHT TRENDS .......................................................................................2-5 2.3 FREIGHT INTEGRATION OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................2-7 CHAPTER 3 SERVICE AND OPERATING PLAN 3-1 3.1 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................3-1 3.2 TRAIN TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS ...........................................................................................3-3 3.2.1 ROLLING STOCK AND OPERATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................... 3-5 3.2.2 TRAIN TECHNOLOGY OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................... 3-6 3.3 TRAIN TIMETABLE DEVELOPMENT .......................................................................................3-7 3.3.1 TOLEDO TO DETROIT NEW CENTER .......................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.2 TOLEDO TO ANN ARBOR ........................................................................................................ 3-9 3.4 RUNNING TIMES SUMMARY ............................................................................................ 3-10 CHAPTER 4 CAPITAL PLAN 4-1 4.1 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................4-1 4.2 COST ESTIMATING APPROACH ...........................................................................................4-2 4.2.1 ADJUSTING THE OHIO HUB COSTS ........................................................................................... 4-3 4.2.2 NOTES ON OHIO HUB COSTS .................................................................................................. 4-4 4.3 EQUIPMENT AND TOTAL CAPITAL COST ................................................................................4-5 CHAPTER 5 DEMOGRAPHICS, SOCIOECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION DATABASES 5-6 5.1 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................5-6 5.2 ZONE SYSTEM ................................................................................................................5-7 5.3 SOCIOECONOMIC DATABASE DEVELOPMENT .........................................................................5-8 5.4 BASE YEAR TRANSPORTATION DATABASE DEVELOPMENT .........................................................5-9 5.4.1 BASE YEAR (2018) TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS ................................................................... 5-10 5.4.2 ORIGIN-DESTINATION TRIP DATABASE ................................................................................... 5-12 5.4.3 VALUES OF TIME, VALUES OF FREQUENCY, AND VALUES OF ACCESS TIMES ................................... 5-14 TEMS, Inc. May 2019 Page | ii Toledo-Detroit Ridership Feasibility & Cost Estimate Study CHAPTER 6 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECAST 6-1 6.1 FUTURE TRAVEL MARKET STRATEGIES .................................................................................6-1 6.1.1 FUEL PRICE FORECASTS .......................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1.2 VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY FORECASTS ...................................................................................... 6-2 6.1.3 HIGHWAY TRAFFIC CONGESTION ............................................................................................. 6-3 6.2 THE TRAVEL DEMAND FORECAST RESULTS ............................................................................6-4 6.2.1 RAIL SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................... 6-4 6.2.2 TOTAL DEMAND ................................................................................................................... 6-5 6.2.3 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS ........................................................................................................... 6-5 6.2.4 REVENUE FORECASTS............................................................................................................. 6-6 6.2.5 STATION VOLUMES ............................................................................................................... 6-6 6.3 MARKET SHARES ............................................................................................................6-7 6.3.1 TRAVEL MARKET MODAL SPLIT ............................................................................................... 6-7 6.3.2 SOURCE OF TRIPS ................................................................................................................. 6-7 6.3.3 AIRPORT ACCESS TRAVEL MARKET BENCHMARKING .................................................................... 6-8 6.3.4 PREVIOUS STUDIES .............................................................................................................. 6-10 CHAPTER 7 OPERATING COSTS 7-1 7.1 OPERATING COST METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................7-1 7.1.1 VARIABLE COSTS ................................................................................................................... 7-3 7.1.2 FIXED ROUTE COSTS .............................................................................................................. 7-5 7.1.3 OPERATING COST BREAKDOWN ............................................................................................ 7-10 CHAPTER 8 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 8-1 8.1 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................8-1 8.2 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESULTS ...................................................................................8-3 8.2.1 KEY ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................ 8-3 8.3 ECONOMIC RESULTS ........................................................................................................8-7 8.4 ECONOMIC RENT/COMMUNITY BENEFITS .............................................................................8-9 8.4.1 THE CHARACTER OF THE OVERALL ECONOMY ............................................................................. 8-9 8.4.2 ASSESSING SUPPLYSIDE BENEFITS ........................................................................................... 8-11 8.4.3 DATA SOURCES AND STUDY DATABASE .................................................................................... 8-13 8.4.4 SUPPLYSIDE ANALYSIS RESULTS: DERIVING ECONOMIC RENT ELASTICITIES ..................................... 8-14 8.4.5 DIRECT SOCIOECONOMIC BENEFITS RESULTS ............................................................................ 8-17 8.4.6 TRANSFER PAYMENTS (TAX BENEFITS) .................................................................................... 8-19 8.4.7 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................... 8-21 CHAPTER 9 CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS 9-1 9.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS...................................................................................................9-1 9.2 NEXT STEPS ...................................................................................................................9-2 TEMS, Inc. May 2019 Page iii Toledo-Detroit Ridership Feasibility & Cost Estimate Study Chapter 1 Project Overview SUMMARY Chapter 1 of this report sets out the background and purpose of the Toledo-Detroit Rail Study, including outlining the study’s goal, the scope, and the methodologies used. In addition, a discussion of the Freight Railroad Principles impacting the project, particularly regarding the sharing of right-of-way with Passenger Rail, are included at the end of this chapter. 1.1 Introduction his study will evaluate how passenger rail service between Toledo, Detroit and Ann Arbor will further enhance the economy of all three cities. It will strengthen the regional economy by T providing better access to markets, jobs, and income,