THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTORAL ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM IN AFRICA By Nicholas N. Kerr A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Political Science — Doctor of Philosophy 2013 ABSTRACT THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTORAL ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM IN AFRICA By Nicholas N. Kerr In emerging democratic settings, scholars and policy experts regard electoral management bodies (EMBs) as one of the most important institutions in guaranteeing that political actors adhere to the rules of the electoral contest and that the substantive outcome of elections is not predetermined. Unfortunately, systematic and thorough assessment of EMBs has largely escaped the spotlight of democracy scholars. My dissertation probes two critical questions concerning the important, yet understudied role of electoral management bodies in emerging democracies. First, what factors influence the design of electoral administration in Africa? Second, what are the consequences of electoral administrative design and performance on the quality of elections in Africa? To answer the first question, I propose a theoretical framework, grounded in historical institutionalism, which attributes election administrative reform to the strategic interactions of domestic and international actors along with the path dependency of institutional legacies during different stages of democracy. Through a comparative analysis of election administrative reforms in a cross-section of African countries, I emphasize the complexity of the reform process and highlight various models of institutional reform. I argue, however, that incumbents are more likely to enact reforms that enhance the autonomy and capacity of electoral administration when they face credible and enduring pressure from a coalition of opposition parties, civil society groups and international actors. In subsequent chapters, I turn my attention to the consequences of electoral administrative design and performance. Primarily, I consider how EMB design and performance may shape the incentives and behaviors of political elite and regular citizens. Using cross- national data on election administrative design and performance in Africa from 1990 to 2008 and data on elites’ and citizens’ perspectives of election quality, I find EMB performance has the greatest impact on electoral attitudes and behavior. That is, EMBs that display higher levels of actual autonomy and capacity are more likely to enhance electoral integrity by reducing opportunities for electoral fraud, lowering the incidence of procedural irregularities and enhancing citizens’ quality of participation in electoral processes. In the penultimate chapter of the dissertation, I rely on survey data from the 2007 and 2011 Nigerian elections to consider whether citizens’ personal evaluations of electoral administrative autonomy and capacity are positively associated with their perceptions of election quality. The findings confirm my expectations, even after accounting for Nigerians’ experience with electoral irregularities and their political preferences. I use a variety of methods in my dissertation. These include large-n statistical analysis of survey data and other data, as well as small-n comparative analysis of election management in Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe using process tracing and content analysis. This multi-method approach also includes collecting original cross-national data on election administrative design in Africa, conducting elite interviews in Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe, and observing elections in Ghana (2008) and Nigeria (2011). Copyright by NICHOLAS N. KERR 2013 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation represents over four years of research while I was a student in the Political Science Department of Michigan State University that could not have been possible without the support and encouragement of family, friends and colleagues. While it would be difficult to mention everyone, I would like to briefly acknowledge those who were pivotal in the process. The chair of my doctoral dissertation, Michael Bratton, was a tireless supporter of the project since its inception. Not only was he convinced that my crazy idea of conducting fieldwork in four countries was doable but at every step of the process, he provided instructive comments on my work, invaluable advice and encouragement that made all the difference especially at times when I found myself on the verge of throwing in the towel. I am equally indebted to Eric Chang, Rita Edozie and Thomas Hammond who served as members of the dissertation committee provided constructive feedback and vital mentorship. I appreciatively acknowledge the support of other members of the MSU community. These include the faculty and staff within the Political Science Department, such as Carolyn Logan (and the Afrobarometer), Jeffery Conroy-Krutz, Steve Kautz, Karen Battin, Rhonda Burns and Sarah Krause. I was fortunate to have been surrounded by fellow graduate studentsTwyla Blackmond-Larnell, Danielle Carter, Seyoun Choi, Brian Kennedy, Jerry Lavery and Helen Leewhom I could rely on to provide feedback on drafts, to help me prepare for conferences, to resolve methods inquiries or to get a burger at Peanut Barrel. The project’s success hinged upon the completion of fieldwork in Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe. This was only feasible because of the unrequited generosity of numerous v individuals. In Ghana, I am thankful for the gracious support of Professor Gyimah-Boadi (Center for Democracy and Development-Ghana), the resourcefulness of James Arthur-Yeboah, and the hospitality of Emmanuel Treku. In Nigeria, institutional affiliations with Center of Democracy and Development-West Africa (through Professor Jibrin Ibrahim) and Redeemers University opened many doors; special thanks also to Bodunrin Adebo, Covenant Child, Simon Fanto, Lloyd Jackson, and Shola Omotola. The South African leg of the project was possible through the assistance of Robert Mattes and the staff at the Democracy and Africa Research Unit at University of Cape Town. In Zimbabwe, I was blessed to have been affiliated with Mass Public Opinion Institute (through Professor Eldred Masunungure). I also received invaluable assistance from Tawanda Chimhini and Jabusile Shumba. In the USA, I would be remiss not to thank those who provided assistance in planning the various fieldwork stints, such as Gemima Barlow, Keith Jennings, Daren Kew, Richard Klein, Oge Okoye-Onubogu, and Peter Smith. Thanks very much for the vital contribution that you all played in making this process a reality. The dissertation would not have gotten off the ground without the financial support of MSU through its pre-dissertation fellowship and graduate enhancement awards, the International Foundation of Electoral Studies through the Manatt Research Fellowship, the Democracy and Africa Research Unit at University of Cape Town through its Research Writing Fellowship, and the Afrobarometer through numerous awards and grants. To my family, especially my Mother, Father and Uncle Clyde, thank you for helping me realize that “ with God all things are possible” and for your countless displays of love and support. Mommy, your own Ph.D. journey and unwavering faith provided the perfect blueprint during the dissertation process. Dad, your constant phone calls and frequent trips to East Lansing were the perfect distraction from the stress of writing. Uncle Clyde, you continue to be my vi spiritual compass and the consummate listening ear regardless of the time or subject. I also thank my extended family and friends whose prayers and frequent words of encouragement have not gone unnoticed. To my wife Shani, I dedicate this dissertation to you. I found in you the most supportive wife anyone could have asked for. Your selfless commitment to helping me complete this journey can only be matched by your patience, thoughtfulness, constant prayers, and irresistible jerk pork and rice and peas. During the project you filled multiple roles: sounding board, data coder, editor, financial manager, and telephone counselor/nurse during the bouts of malaria and typhoid in the field. You are truly a “phenomenal” woman of God. Finally, and most importantly I thank God for helping me to completely understand that “all things work together for good to them that love God and to them that are called according to his purpose” (Romans 8:28). vii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ………………………………………………………………………….. xiii LIST OF FIGURES …………………………………………………………………………. xvi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………... 1 1.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………………………... 1 1.2 Main Arguments …………………………………………………………………… 3 1.2.1 Causes of EMB Design ……………………………………………………… 3 1.2.2 Consequence of EMB Design and Performance ……………………………. 4 1.2.3 Linking Causes and Consequences …………………………………………. 6 1.3 What is Electoral Administration? …………………………………………………. 6 1.3.1 Electoral Management Bodies ………………………………………………. 7 1.4 Why Examine Electoral Administration? …………………………………………. 8 1.5 Why Africa? ………………………………………………………………………... 11 1.6 Theoretical Approach ……………………………………………………………… 11 1.6.1 Formal and Informal Political Institutions …………………………………… 12 1.6.2 Institutional Design and Performance ……………………………………….. 13 1.6.3 Dimensions of Institutionalization: Autonomy and Capacity ……………….. 14 1.6.4 Historical Institutionalism …………………………………………………… 16 1.7 Research Methods ………………………………………………………………….. 19 1.8 Research Contributions …………………………………………………………….