Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) within the South African context: A theoretical and strategic framework for the national security environment JI Stegen orcid.org 0000-0002-8420-999X Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Development and Management at the North-West University Promoter: Prof A Duvenhage Co-promoter: Prof MN Wiggill Graduation ceremony: May 2019 Student number: 22443770 DECLARATION I, Johanna Isabella Stegen (Student Number 22443770), hereby declare that the thesis entitled: Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) within the South African context: A theoretical and strategic framework for the national security environment submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree, Doctor of Philosophy in Development and Managment, at the North-West University, is my own work and has never been submitted by me to any other university. I also declare that, as far as possible, all the sources used have been acknowledged by means of complete referencing. I understand that the copies of the thesis submitted for examination will remain the property of North-West University. Signed………………………………………..on this day 16th of November, 2018 ii DEDICATION AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This thesis is dedicated to my late father, Hermann Stegen, who gave up so much to take care of me and my brother. I wish to express my sincere gratitude to: My Creator for giving me the strength, knowledge, ability, perseverance and opportunity to complete this mammoth task. My family and friends for their encouragement, support and understanding over the last five years. It was particularly during the homestretch that your constant cheers helped me across the finishing line. My study leader, Professor André Duvenhage, who methodically and with great care and consideration advised and motivated me to produce this thesis. My co-study leader, Professor Marlene Wiggill, for your guidance, expertise and understanding. Dr Thys van den Berg for being my sounding board and for all the support, assistance and encouragement during this time. Christien Terblanche for your assistance with the editing and bibliography. Simone Roos for your assistance with the technical aspects of the thesis. The librarians for your support and expert advice. My employer for giving me the opportunity to develop and make a contribution to this old profession. iii ABSTRACT We are currently living in a complex global environment where change is a given, constantly fuelled by the increasing pace of technological development. These developments affect every aspect of society, including business, education, communication and government. One of the most significant technological developments in recent decades, especially in relation to information communications, is the rise of the internet. This development has brought with it an information revolution that increased the amount of available information, enhanced access to information and reduced the cost of communication. One of the most significant developments associated with the internet is the emergence of social media, which changed traditional communication, augmented social interaction and made state boundaries irrelevant. The phenomenon of social media plays a key role in the production and dissemination of information and people‟s access to it. Characteristics such as interactivity, affordability, availability, facelessness and a lack of censorship have increased the use of social media as a tool of communication. These same characteristics also make it attractive to terrorist and other criminal organisations. The implications for national security make social media important for intelligence organisations. This new development motivated this study. Social media provides the intelligence community with a vast quantity of information (SOCMINT) that could be of importance in safeguarding national security. However, the intelligence community in South Africa is not using this tool to its full potential. The primary aim of this study was to develop a strategic framework for the national security environment in South Africa that includes SOCMINT as a source of information. The secondary aim was to contribute to the theoretical foundation for intelligence studies. This is a young academic field with a limited theoretical foundation and the detailed meta-theoretical discussion in this study adds to the theoretical base of intelligence studies. The proposed framework could enrich the activities of the intelligence community and enhance the intelligence product delivered to the client. This in turn will help ensure the intelligence organisation‟s relevance in this global environment of information overload. KEY TERMS: apartheid, communication studies, cyber space, digital age, intelligence, intelligence studies, international studies, internet, national security, new media studies, political science, security studies, SOCMINT, social media, surveillance, technology iv OPSOMMING Ons leef tans in ʼn komplekse globale omgewing waar verandering ʼn gegewe is wat gedurig aangevuur word deur die vinnige spoed van tegnologiese veranderings. Hierdie verwikkelinge in die tegnologiese omgewing beïnvloed elke aspek van ons samelewing, byvoorbeeld besigheid, opvoedkunde, kommunikasie en die regering. Een van die grootste bydraes uit die inligtingstegnologie-omgewing is die internet. Dit het ʼn inligtingsrevolusie meegebring wat toegang tot inligting verhoog het, die koste van kommunikasie verlaag het en die hoeveelheid inligting vermeerder het. Die ontwikkeling van sosiale media het ʼn verdere revolusie meegebring. Hierdie nuwe verskynsel het tradisionele kommunikasie verander, sosiale interaksie vermeerder en vergemaklik, en staatsgrense irrelevant gemaak. Sosiale media speel ʼn sleutelrol in die produksie en verspreiding van inligting en mense se toegang daartoe. Eienskappe soos interaktiwiteit, lae koste, toeganklikheid, beskikbaarheid, anonimiteit en gebrek aan sensorskap het die gebruik van sosiale media as ʼn kommunikasiemiddel aangevuur. Dit is ook hierdie eienskappe wat die gebruik van sosiale media onder terroriste en kriminele organisasies gewild maak. Hierdie implikasies vir staatsveiligheid maak sosiale media ʼn prioriteit vir intelligensie-organisasies, en dit is wat hierdie studie gemotiveer het. Sosiale media bied aan die intelligensiegemeenskap ʼn groot hoeveelheid inligting (sosiale media-intelligensie – SOCMINT) wat belangrik is vir die handhawing van nasionale veiligheid. Hierdie belangrike middel word egter nie tot sy volle potensiaal gebruik binne die Suid- Afrikaanse intelligensie-omgewing nie. Die hoofdoel van die studie was daarom om ʼn strategiese raamwerk te ontwikkel wat SOCMINT in die Suid-Afrikaanse intelligensiegemeenskap insluit. Die sekondêre doel was om ʼn bydrae te lewer tot die teoretiese basis van intelligensiestudies. Die akademiese veld is jonk en het ʼn gebrekkige teoretiese basis, en die gedetailleerde metateoretiese bespreking wat ingesluit is by die studie lewer ʼn bydrae tot die teoretiese onderbou van intelligensiestudies. Die voorgestelde raamwerk sal van waarde wees vir die intelligensiegemeenskap met betrekking tot hulle werksaamhede en sal die produk wat aan die kliënt gelewer word, verbeter. Dit sal verder ook verseker dat die intelligensie organisasie relevant bly in die huidige omgewing waar inligting in oorvloed beskikbaar is. SLEUTELTERME: apartheid, kommunikasiestudies, kuberruimte, digitale era, intelligensie, intelligensiestudies, internasionale studies, internet, nasionale sekuriteit, nuwe media studies, politieke wetenskappe, sekuriteitstudies, SOCMINT, sosiale media, tegnologie v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ANC African National Congress ARPA Advanced Research Project Agency BOSS Bureau for State Security CCSI Cabinet Committee on Security and Intelligence CI Counter-Intelligence COMINT Communications Intelligence COMSEC Electronic Communication Security COSMOS Collaborative Online Social Media Observatory DCAF Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces DIS Department of Intelligence and Security (African National Congress) DMI Department of Military Intelligence DONS Department of National Security DPCI Department of Priority Crime Investigations HUMINT Human Intelligence ICT Information Communication Technology ID Intelligence Division IMINT Imagery Intelligence IoT Internet of Things IT Information Technology MASINT Measurement and Signature Intelligence MK Umkhonto weSizwe NAT Department of National Intelligence and Security NCC National Communication Centre NCIS National Crime Intelligence Service NI National Intelligence NIA National Intelligence Agency vi NICOC National Intelligence Coordinating Committee NIE National Intelligence Estimate NIIB National Intelligence Interpretation Branch NIS National Intelligence Service NP National Party NSMS National Security Management System OIC Office for Interception Centres OSINT Open Source Intelligence PC Personal Computer PCRM Party of Communists Moldova RI Republican Intelligence RICA The Regulation of Interception of Communications and Provision of Communications-related Information Act (70 of 2002) SADF South African Defence Force SANDF South African National Defence Force SAP South African Police SAPS South African Police Service SASS South African Secret Service SIGINT Signals Intelligence SNA Social Network Analysis SOCMINT Social Media Intelligence SSA State Security Agency SSC State Security Committee UDF Union Defence Force USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics vii TABLE