Water and Agriculture in Uganda Supporting a CLEW’s assessment Caroline Sundin Nicolina Lindblad Supervisor: Mark Howells Bachelor of Science Thesis MJ153X Bachelor of Science Thesis, Energy and Environment Stockholm 2015 Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................... 2 List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Acronyms and abbreviation ........................................................................................................ 4 Abstract .............................................................................................................................................. 6 Sammanfattning .............................................................................................................................. 7 Acknowledgment ............................................................................................................................ 8 Disclaimer .......................................................................................................................................... 8 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Uganda ................................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Agriculture sector .............................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 Food scarcity ..................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Water sector ...................................................................................................................................... 11 1.5 Hydropower ...................................................................................................................................... 12 1.6 Policies and Vision 2040 ............................................................................................................... 12 1.6.1 Vision 2040-Agriculture .......................................................................................................................... 13 1.6.2 Vision 2040-Water ..................................................................................................................................... 13 1.7 WEAP ................................................................................................................................................... 14 1.8 GAEZ ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 2. Objective ...................................................................................................................................... 14 3. Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 15 3.1 Reference resource system .......................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Area of study ..................................................................................................................................... 17 3.3 WEAP Model ...................................................................................................................................... 18 3.4 Demography ...................................................................................................................................... 21 3.5 Precipitation ..................................................................................................................................... 21 3.6 Evaporation ....................................................................................................................................... 23 3.7 Demand sites ..................................................................................................................................... 23 3.8 Hydropower ...................................................................................................................................... 24 3.9 Reservoir data .................................................................................................................................. 25 3.10 River data ........................................................................................................................................ 26 3.11 Groundwater .................................................................................................................................. 28 3.12 Runoff and infiltration ................................................................................................................ 29 3.13 Catchments ...................................................................................................................................... 29 3.14 Scenarios .......................................................................................................................................... 30 3.14.1 Population growth rate ......................................................................................................................... 31 3.14.2 Precipitation .............................................................................................................................................. 32 3.14.3 Evaporation & Evapotranspiration .................................................................................................. 33 3.14.4 Input level ................................................................................................................................................... 33 3.14.5 Municipal and Industry demand ....................................................................................................... 34 3.14.6 Agriculture demand ................................................................................................................................ 34 3.15.1 Hydropower ............................................................................................................................................... 37 4. Results .......................................................................................................................................... 38 4.1 Crop production ............................................................................................................................... 38 4.2 Hydropower ...................................................................................................................................... 42 4.2.1 Demand and generation - all scenarios ............................................................................................. 42 4.2.2 Demand and generation – monthly distribution .......................................................................... 44 4.3 Unmet water demand ................................................................................................................................... 45 5. Discussion, Conclusion & Future Work ............................................................................. 47 5.1 Unmet Water demand .................................................................................................................... 47 5.2 Crop suitability & Water deficit .................................................................................................. 48 5.3 Population growth rate ................................................................................................................. 49 5.4 Hydropower generation ............................................................................................................... 49 5.5 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 50 6. References ............................................................................................................................... 51 7. Appendix ..................................................................................................................................... 54 List of Figures Figure 1.4. Map over the of occurrence [%] of irrigated cultivated area extracted from GAEZ. ........ 11 Figure 3.1a. Reference Resource System .............................................................................................. 16 Figure 3.1b Reference resource system with emphasise on the Water and Agriculture Sector; the areas highlighted in this report in bold. ................................................................................................. 16 Figure 3.2. The eight sub-basins (UNESCO, 2006). ............................................................................. 17 Figure 3.3. Model of the water system in Uganda, generated in WEAP. .............................................. 19 Figure 3.5a. Map over the annual precipitation for year 2000 extracted from GAEZ. ........................ 22 Figure 3.5b. The monthly variation in precipitation (World Bank, 2015b). ......................................... 22 Figure 3.14.2. Annual precipitation for the different scenarios extracted from GAEZ. From the left: historic