Introduction to ESPA Deltas Project Professor Munsur Rahman, IWFM, BUET Professor Roberts Nicholls, University of Southampton, UK For ESPA Deltas (www.espadelta.net) ESPA Scientific Review Meeting Nairobi, 17-18 November 2016 Change to Running Order Munsur Rahman (BUET): “Introduction to ESPA Deltas Project” Robert Nicholls (University of Southampton): “Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM): Development and Results” Craig Hutton (University of Southampton): “Deltas, ecosystem services and human well-being” Discussion (20 minutes) THE CONSORTIUM (100+ members) UK (7) Bangladesh (12) India (2) • University of • Institute of Water and Flood Management, Southampton- Lead Bangladesh University of Engineering and • Jadavpur Robert Nicholls PI Technology (BUET) – Prof Rahman Lead PI University (Biophysical Modelling) (Physical Modelling) (MangroveMod • University of Oxford • Bangladesh Institute of Development elling): Indian Studies (BIDS) Institute of Livelihood Studies (Scenario Development) (ILS) Lead • Exeter University • Ashroy Foundation • IIT Kanpur (Ecosystem Services and • Institute of International Centre for (Hydrological Poverty) Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh • Dundee University (Legal (ICDDR,B) Modelling) context) • Center for Environmental and Geographic • Hadley Centre MET office Information Services (CEGIS) • Bangladesh Agricultural University (Climate Change • Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute Modelling) (BARI) • Plymouth Marine • Technological Assistance for Rural Laboratories (Fisheries Advancement (TARA) Modelling) • International Union for Conservation of Strategic• National Partner: Oceanography General EconomicNature (IUCN) Division, Planning Commission Centre Liverpool (Marine • University of Dhaka • Water Resources Planning Organization Modelling) (WARPO) Database/others Deltas are Vulnerability Hotspots Deltas are home to over half a billion (>7%) people (occupy only 1% of the world’s land) as they are economic hotspots, food baskets for many nations, supporting much of the world’s fisheries, forest products, and extensive agriculture. Human actions from upstream deplete them from water and sediment : on a global scale >40% of river discharge and 26% of sediment are being intercepted by large reservoirs. Local exploration contributes to subsidence, loss of Nile wetlands, and accelerated erosion Sea level rise increases salinity and accelerates land loss Tropical storms and cyclones cause devastating Ganges flooding 4 Ecosystem Services/Activities in GBM delta Key Provisioning and Regulating Ecosystem Services: Riverine (Fisheries/Navigation) Forestry (livelihood/soil conservation) Key Ecosystem Agriculture/Aquaculture Services (livelihood) Wetlands/Floodplains (Fisheries/flood protection) Marine Fisheries (Livelihood) Mangrove (protection from flooding /sediment trap/fisheries) Multiple Scales in the GB Delta HUMAN ‘PROCESSES’ River Floods/ Sediment Supply Changing Land Use/Catchment Management People displaced by 2100 in Bangladesh 42 to 54 million (23% to 30% of total) Flooding/Erosion Climate Sedimentation ‘Global Variability Salinization Climate Subsidence Change’ Water logging Sea Level rise NATURAL Lecture 4. Climate change and the Cyclones/ integrated coastal system. Wednesday PROCESSES 25 July 2007 Marine Processes ESPA Deltas: Overarching aim To provide policy makers with the knowledge and tools to enable them to evaluate the effects of policy decisions on ecosystem services and people's livelihoods Vision: Link science to policy at the landscape scale Engagement: With national level policy processes that impact at a community level ESPA Delta: Objectives In Coastal Bangladesh Present relationship between ecosystem services (ES) and human well-being and health? How ES might evolve in the next 50-100 years (~demographic, economic, social, environmental, climate change and variability)? Policy influence? Study Area Robust policies, effective across the range of uncertainty? ESPA Deltas: Project Structure Stakeholder Engagement (since 2010) Engagement process from the beginning of the project: • Issue Identification • Scenario development • Policy exploration Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 www.bangladeshdeltaplan2100.org/ Historical Trends and Trade-Offs Since the 1950s, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production (PS). In contrast, non-food ecosystem services (RS) such as water availability, water quality and land stability (RS) have deteriorated. Trade-off between use of environmental Hossain et al. (2014) resources and development Socio-Economic Data Collection and Analysis • 7 socio-ecological systems based on: Dominant livelihood type (~land use) Study Area: Land Use Proximity to area of natural resources Unique characteristics of land formation Biophysical Modelling Biophysical Modelling Climate models Hydrological modeling for GBM basins: Changes in river flow Coastal modeling Coastal modeling Coastal modeling Groundwater modeling (inundation) (salinity) (cyclone/ storm surge) (salinity) Numerical simulation of groundwater salinity Sundarban modeling Area loss Species distribution Biophysical Modelling Yield expected to decrease should soil salinity increase Area losses in Sundarbans – 7-23% Increasing dominance of salt tolerant species decrease fish production in Bangladesh EEZ by up to 10%. ; Good management can achieve higher catches Fisheries Sundarban Socio-Economic Data Analysis Poverty has spatially differentiated drivers Poverty has a spatial distribution (i.e. not random) Salinity intrusion is more important in the poorest unions in the Satkhira and Khulna Environmental factors are important for unions in Bagerhat Lack of access to markets and other facilities and human capital (education and employment) have a stronger impact in unions in Patuakhali and Bhola o Ecosystem services are critical for income and well-being of poor people; o Diverse livelihoods are associated with lower levels of poverty o Those without ES are those most likely to be both materially poor and experience low satisfaction with life. o Richer people enhance well-being by diversifying livelihoods Integration: Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) GCM/ RCM Laws, Temp, rainfall policies Catchment Models: Gaps, Conflicts, GWAVA / INCA Implementation Key issues, MODFLOW DIEM) HydroTrend Δ efficiencies Scenarios Governance research Sea level, SLP, SST, winds Water, sediment, nutrients Crop Model: Delta Model Qualitative survey Morphology & CROPWAT FVCOM, relationship b/t Delft3D Land Cover environment & social Aquaculture behaviour Model Water flow, level, salinity, Land Use Quantitative survey temp, sediment, Mangrove (consumption, assets, nutrients Model employment, migration, Surge level Surge ecological group - health, poverty, …) Coastal Fisheries Bay Bengal Model Primary productivity, Model Spatial associative GCOMS T,S,O2, currents Size- & Species- model b/t land use based models Process understanding behaviour quantified + and poverty Knowledgeintegration / Scenarios ( for each socio Quantitative Physical/ Inland Fisheries Population projections Ecological Models Model Demographics, economics & poverty Snap shot of Journal and Conference Papers ESPA Deltas book TITLE: “Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis: Rural Livelihoods in Deltas” EDITORS: Nicholls, Hutton, Hanson, Rahman, Salehin and others, Palgrave Publisher Web site hosted at: www.espadelta.net ESPA Deltas Final Events: Bangladesh 30/31 October and London 22/23 November Science-Policy interaction in adaptive delta planning Sharing key features of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 and ESPA Deltas Project Goals: RiU, Linkage with BDP 2100, Potential use of ESPA deltas results in BDP Summary Outcomes: Policy intervention can be assessed using the developed tool (▲DIEM) ▲DIEM can be adjusted to judge investment 21 decision both in the short and long term basis Key Outputs . Biophysical and socio economic surveys, data, analysis and insights . Internal Reports (6) . Journal (40+) and Conference (20+) Papers, with more in the process of publication . Newsletters/Policy Briefs/ Newspaper Articles . A set of coupled biophysical models . The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) including a livelihoods module . Application of ΔDIEM to the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 . National/Regional/Local Dissemination of results ESPA Deltas Legacy . A new integrated framework for analysing ecosystem services and livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh . Data and models in Bangladesh at BUET, WARPO . Trained and experienced staff in Bangladesh at BUET . Numerous academic and policy relevant outputs . Good relationship with national stakeholders . General Economic Division (GED) of the Planning Commission and the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP2100) . Strong interest from national stakeholders (GED) in further application and development within BDP2100: . Detailed application of ΔDIEM to the Coastal Hotspot . Extending ΔDIEM to a National Coverage . Related projects – DECCMA on migration and adaptation . (http://www.geodata.soton.ac.uk/deccma/) Thank You Introduction to ESPA Deltas Project Professor Munsur Rahman, IWFM, BUET Professor Roberts Nicholls, University of Southampton, UK For ESPA Deltas (www.espadelta.net) ESPA Scientific Review Meeting Nairobi, 17-18 November 2016 Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM): Development and Results Robert J. Nicholls, University of Southampton Mashfiqus Salehin, Institute of Water