2nd December, 2015 Auto-Roundup November 2015 A mixed bag in November post super festive October Post a solid October, we saw a moderate November. On a sequential basis all the companies posted steep declines on expected lines. There was an aberration in October as companies pumped in inventories at the dealers’ ends in anticipation of a strong festive season, which obviously fades down in the consecutive month as retail sales move up higher than wholesale sales. In such cases, yoy comparison is more important, going by which we have seen the car and UV makers punching in solid sales performance. On a low base of last year, MSIL posted 10% growth in line with the new launch of Baleno, while M&M sold 21% higher yoy on the launch of TUV 3oo. Unlisted players like Hyundai, Ford, Renault, Honda too posted strong growths in November on launches of Kwid, Creta, Figo Aspire etc. Auto companies who have facilities in and around Chennai suffered heavy production losses on account of incessant rains over there. Managements stated that they would make up for those losses by working an extra shift or on Saturdays, but November witnessed losses for companies like Hyundai, TVS, Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors, Daimler, Bharat Benz etc. Continuation of the same in December may impact the monthly sales which are as it is seasonally weak. On the 2W side, dullness in the rural economy lead all of them post weak or flattish sales. Bajaj faced the heat in the exports markets in Africa and South Asia. On the CV side of the industry, implementation of BSIV regulations at the start of October led to some moderation of MHCV growth as prices have increased by 3-4% since then. Going to the stocks, we are Neutral on all the 2 wheelers. Hero being a rural player, an uptick in those markets may lead to a change in our view. Bajaj is low on exports growth and is awaiting 3W permits in Maharashtra which may provide the much needed fillip. TVS got impacted by rains which we believe will make a good come back next month onwards. We like MSIL on its sheer market leadership strength, its image of a car made for India and its solid distribution network. We like Ashok Leyland as it’s a prime beneficiary of the CV cycle up move and Tata Motors on expectations of JLR strength in non Chinese markets and domestic CV resilience. M&M saw a robust sales growth in October and November on the back of newly launched TUV3oo and strong CV sales. On the FES side, we have seen a good festive season, but sustainability is a question. Nov-15 Oct-15 % mom Nov-14 % yoy Hero Motocorp 550,731 639,802 -13.9% 547,413 0.6% Bajaj Auto 309,673 352,822 -12.2% 309,259 0.1% TVS 225,401 274,622 -17.9% 220,046 2.4% Maruti 120,824 134,209 -10.0% 110,147 9.7% M&M 63,307 79,464 -20.3% 49,625 27.6% Auto 41,590 51,382 -19.1% 34,292 21.3% Tractors 21,717 28,061 -22.6% 15,333 41.6% Tata Motors 38,918 43,486 -10.5% 41,720 -6.7% Ashok Leyland total 8,971 9,804 -8.5% 7,732 16.0% Escorts 4706.0 5,862 -19.7% 4306.0 9.3% Ashwin Patil [email protected] LKP Research +91 22 6635 1271 Hero MotoCorp: Weak post festive numbers…rural improvement still looks far fetched . Hero MotoCorp (Hero)’s sales in Novemberr grew flattish yoy and 14% mom to 550,731 units in line with the current trend of lower 2W sales due to deficient rains and weak rural demand. October was an aberration due to festive demand. On YTD basis, the fall came down to 2.7% from 3.1% seen last month. Going forward, we believe that improvement in the rural economy will be the key monitorable. Nov-15 Oct-15 % mom Nov-14 % yoy YTD FY 16 YTD FY 15 % yoy Total sales 550,731 639,802 -13.9% 547,413 0.6% 4,409,709 4,530,071 -2.7% Bajaj Auto : 3W and exports lead to flattish yoy sales growth . Bajaj Auto’s total sales remained flat in November to 309,673 units, while decreasing by 12.2% mom. Motorcycle sales have seen a growth of 3.4% yoy as competition started heating up. On a mom basis, sales de-grew 12.3% mom. Three wheeler sales fell by 18% yoy while dipping by 12% mom. The commercial vehicle sales included few units of the quadricycle ‘Qute’ in the exports markets. Going forward, we expect to see a solid traction in the 3W segment as permits are about to open shortly and higher demand for Qute. However, quadricycles are facing stiff resistance from auto unions in the domestic markets. Exports markets remained stunted as they de-grew by 17% yoy, while improving by 7.6% mom with some demand pressure in Nigeria, Egypt and other South Asian countries. On YTD basis, total sales have gone down by 0.3% on concerns in the exports as well as domestic markets. Nov-15 Oct-15 % mom Nov-14 % yoy YTD FY 16 YTD FY 15 % yoy Motorcycles 270,886 308,733 -12.3% 261,948 3.4% 2,357,951 2,372,882 -0.6% 3W 38,787 44,089 -12.0% 47,311 -18.0% 374,169 366,406 2.1% Total 309,673 352,822 -12.2% 309,259 0.1% 2,732,120 2,739,288 -0.3% Exports out of the above 137,315 127,645 7.6% 165,733 -17.1% 1,261,605 1,285,340 -1.8% Domestic 172,358 225,177 -23.5% 143,526 20.1% 1,470,515 1,453,948 1.1% LKP Research November 2015 TVS Motors : Sales impacted by heavy rains in Chennai . Total sales grew by 2.4% yoy to 225,401 units in November as motorcycles fell by 4.9% yoy and 22.6% mom while scooters grew by 22.2% yoy and fell by 16.8% mom. Mopeds de-grew by 4.5% yoy and 10.5% mom. The new moped launch of XL100 is fetching good response. Motorcycle sales de-grew by a 4.9% yoy and 22.6% mom as incessant rains hit Chennai in major part of November and hit the sales of various auto manufacturers located there. TVS lost about 15,000 units of sales due to this. Excluding which the sales would have grown by 9-10%. Scooters sales zoomed by 22.2% yoy and as the sales of Jupiter and Zest were very strong in the month. 3W sales de-grew by 15.1% yoy as the both the domestic as well as exports saw a decline in mid-teens. Exports sales de-grew by 14.3% yoy to 33,621 units which can be again attributed to Chennai rains and weak demand in some of the export geographies. Nov-15 Oct-15 % mom Nov-14 % yoy YTD FY 16 YTD FY 15 % yoy Motorcycles 82,163 106,175 -22.6% 86,424 -4.9% 717,620 648,915 10.6% Scooters 76,043 91,430 -16.8% 62,223 22.2% 568,940 500,874 13.6% Mopeds 59,500 66,507 -10.5% 62,332 -4.5% 496,302 519,544 -4.5% Total 2W 217,706 264,112 -17.6% 210,979 3.2% 1,782,862 1,669,333 6.8% 3W 7,695 10,510 -26.8% 9,067 -15.1% 81,120 71,049 14.2% Total sales 225,401 274,622 -17.9% 220,046 2.4% 1,863,982 1,740,382 7.1% Exports out of the above 33,621 41,682 -19.3% 39,215 -14.3% 320,143 274,922 16.4% 2W exports 27,216 32,621 -16.6% 31,526 -13.7% 249,379 216,237 15.3% 3W exports 6,405 9,061 -29.3% 7,689 -16.7% 70,764 58,685 20.6% LKP Research November 2015 Maruti Suzuki : In line show . Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL)’s sales in November grew by 9.7% yoy and declined by 10% mom to 120,824 units. The domestic sales grew by 10.6% yoy and dropped by 8.6% mom. The sequential fall was expected in line with the big bang October festive sales. The petrol segment this month saw a 4.7% yoy and 4.3% mom falls indicating competition building from the likes of Renault Kwid. The diesel segment however, grew by a strong 19.5% yoy and declined by 12.6% mom on expectations of diesel prices coming down and interest rates getting cut. Also the newly launched Baleno led this outperformance. Ciaz segment sales grew by 5.3% yoy at 5,509 units as demand for this new model along with the new hybrid launch of Ciaz moved up. UVs increased by 57% yoy and fell by 7.9% mom (on high base of last month) as the company launched compact SUV S-Cross vehicle couple of months earlier and is doing well in this festive season. Exports were at 10,225 units, a growth of just 1% yoy and a 22.2% fall mom. On YTD basis, total sales have grown by a handsome 13.6% which we expect to remain steady throughout the year with continued demand in the cars segment in India and upcoming launches in the ensuing months.