A MONTPELLIER PANEL REPORT 2015 THE FARMS OF CHANGE AFRICAN SMALLHOLDERS RESPONDING TO AN UNCERTAIN CLIMATE FUTURE 1 2 Montpellier Panel September 2015 THE FARMS OF CHANGE AFRICAN SMALLHOLDERS RESPONDING TO AN UNCERTAIN CLIMATE FUTURE A MONTPELLIER PANEL REPORT 2015 This report was authored by Agriculture for Impact, with advice and inputs from members of the Montpellier Panel. The primary author Dr. Katrin Glatzel was supported by Professor Sir Gordon Conway and Emily Alpert, with contributions from Stephanie Brittain and Alice Marks. The report was designed by Robb Whiteman and Hoevel & Associates. 3 SUMMARY TWO OF THE GREATEST CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY ARE THE INCREASING DEMANDS FOR FOOD, WATER AND ENERGY FROM A GROWING POPULATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE. AGRICULTURE AND SMALLHOLDERS ARE CENTRAL TO BOTH, PERHAPS NOWHERE MORE SO THAN IN AFRICA. WHILST PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE DURING THE LAST TWO DECADES TO REDUCE HUNGER, CLIMATE CHANGE JEOPARDISES THESE GAINS. Africa is already battling against the impacts of climate in renewable energy technologies, create new markets for change and smallholder farmers are amongst the most agricultural producers, and build human and institutional vulnerable. Rising temperatures signal more extreme capacities to support a knowledge economy based on weather events that will put lives and livelihoods at greater innovation, research and development. To do this requires risk, increasing smallholders’ vulnerability to drought, famine enabling policies and incentives for smallholder farmers and disease. Mean temperatures in Africa will rise faster to invest in environmental services, preserve biodiversity, than the global average, exceed 2°C and may reach as high sustainably manage natural resources such as land and as 3°C to 6°C greater than 20th century levels. Agricultural water, and to use energy efficiently. losses in Africa will amount to 2% to 7% of GDP by 2100.1 Achieving the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change affects not only yields, but also food quality Climate Change (UNFCCC) goal of limiting average global and safety, and the reliability of its delivery to consumers. temperature rise to 2°C will be hard without leveraging the By 2050, hunger and child malnutrition could increase by potential of the agriculture sector, both in the developed as much as 20% as a result of climate change, reversing and developing world. Unlocking Africa’s agriculture sector the gains achieved through the Millennium Development in a way that captures the synergies between adaptation Goal (MDG) process whilst jeopardising the success of and mitigation and identifies and reduces trade-offs can the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Given the contribute to poverty reduction and economic growth. importance of agriculture as a revenue earner and as the To achieve this, adaptation efforts need to be supported biggest employer in most African countries, the livelihoods through new technologies, increased financial investments, of millions are at stake. and effective institutions and regulation. At the same time, smallholder farmers can also be agents of change. When given the right options and incentives, they can drive sustainable agricultural development that builds resilience and reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Across Africa, climate change could spur countries to invest 1 Montpellier Panel September 2015 2 PRIORITIES 9 THE CHALLENGE The threat of climate change More investments in sustainable to food and nutrition security, farming systems are needed to arising from the severe adapt to climate change and to vulnerability of agriculture and generate mitigation co-benefits in #1 farm households, needs to be on #2 order to improve the livelihoods of top of the agenda of the UNFCCC smallholder farmers. and national governments. 9 THE SCIENCE AND IMPACTS National governments need International organisations, to invest in better weather governments and the private monitoring, data collection and sector must increase investments modelling to provide improved in research and local capacities #3 estimates of climate change #4 to understand the responses of and the probability of extreme different crops and livestock breeds weather events. to drought, floods and heat stress. 9 FOOD SECURITY Better regional and national estimates of the number of people that will suffer from food and nutrition insecurity, including #5 micronutrient deficiencies, are needed to plan resilience-building strategies. 3 Montpellier Panel September 2015 9 ADAPTATION More investments by governments, donors and the private sector are needed to scale-up proven community-based resilient #6 adaptation projects, in particular soil, water and nutrient management, conservation technologies and risk management tools. 9 CO-BENEFITS FOR MITIGATION To keep global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial Investments should be directed levels, international organisations towards interventions that #7 and governments must help #8 sequester carbon in the soil, such smallholders to reduce and offset as agroforestry systems and better GHG emissions. land use management practices. 9 FINANCE 9 ENABLING ENVIRONMENT Climate finance mechanisms should Designing and implementing be improved or designed so that adaptation and mitigation African governments can better strategies that benefit smallholder #9 access funding that significantly farmers requires strong political benefits smallholder farmers. #10 leadership, functioning markets and regulatory instruments. 4 THE CHALLENGE AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM OF, AND PART OF THE SOLUTION TO, CLIMATE CHANGE. AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY CREATING GHG EMISSIONS PRIORITY #1 THROUGH LIVESTOCK, POOR LAND USE AND IMPROPER SOIL MANAGEMENT, BUT SMALLHOLDER FARMERS AND THEIR LIVELIHOODS ARE ALSO AMONGST THE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE ADVERSE IMPACTS. The threat of climate change to food and nutrition security, These can already be felt in many parts of the world. Crops, grazing land, arising from the severe trees and livestock are negatively impacted both by rising temperatures and vulnerability of agriculture by climatic extremes, such as too much or too little water, too high or too low and farm households, needs temperatures, and shifts in the length of the growing season. Moreover, millions to be on top of the agenda of farmers are already living in extreme poverty; they own less than one hectare of the UNFCCC and national of land, survive on less than US$1 a day and do not produce enough to feed their governments. families. They are especially vulnerable to climate change and achieving food security for all will become increasingly difficult. At the same time, agriculture also contributes significantly to global GHG emissions. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) combined contribute 20% to 24% of total GHG emissions. Whilst overall AFOLU emissions decreased over the PRIORITY #2 last decade, emissions from crop and livestock production increased, becoming the dominant source of AFOLU emissions. Although Africa’s contribution to global GHG emissions is comparatively small, emissions from the AFOLU sector are relatively high and continue to increase by 1% to 2% per year.2 In Africa, AFOLU emissions accounted for 28% of total GHG emissions, and for example in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the contribution is as high as 80%.3 More investments in sustainable Women and girls in particular are vulnerable to climate change yet their potential farming systems are needed to increase resilience against climate shocks remains largely untapped. Limited to adapt to climate change access to capital, extension services, inputs and other resources, as well as their and to generate mitigation demanding responsibilities for producing and preparing food and collecting co-benefits in order to improve domestic water supplies, leave women at a disadvantage in adapting to climate the livelihoods of smallholder change. The projected rise in water and fuel scarcity means that girls and women farmers. will need to walk further to collect wood and water. Women have fewer assets 5 Montpellier Panel September 2015 and rights than men do and are also 14 times more likely to die than men during climate related disasters – mainly because they do not receive adequate warning, are not able to leave the house alone or because they are taking care of children and the elderly.4 However, if given the opportunity, women have been shown to increase household and community resilience to climate change.5 WOMEN HAVE FEWER ASSETS AND RIGHTS THAN MEN DO AND ARE ALSO 14 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO DIE THAN MEN DURING CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS – MAINLY BECAUSE THEY DO NOT RECEIVE ADEQUATE WARNING. Whilst climate change presents one of the most defining challenges globally and for smallholder farmers in Africa in particular, it also offers opportunities. New adaptation and mitigation technologies and processes, if carefully crafted, can provide sustainable economic benefits to smallholder farmers and entrepreneurs along agricultural value chains. Climate change is a business opportunity for new technologies and job creation in climate sensitive sectors, not only in agriculture, but also in water and energy. 6 THE SCIENCE AND IMPACTS AFRICA’S CLIMATES ARE NOT ONLY DIVERSE, THEY ARE ALSO HIGHLY VARIABLE. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE THE EFFECTS OF NATURAL VARIATION FROM THOSE PRODUCED BY GLOBAL WARMING. PRIORITY #3 NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS GROWING EVIDENCE THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAVING