Éditorial African Statistical Journal Journal africain de statistiques 1. Quantification of Inflation Expectations from Business Tendency Survey Data in Uganda Kenneth Alpha Egesa 2. Cigarette Smoking in Tanzania-Prevalence and Determinants Asmerom Kidane, Aloyce Hepelwa, Kenneth Mdadila, Salvatory Macha, Anita Lee, Teh Wei Hu 3. Statistical Literacy for National Development Korter Grace, Olatunji Lateef, Omolehin Joseph, Olubusoye Olusanya 4. Statistical Indicators for Measuring Good Governance in Africa Dahud Kehinde Shangodoyin Volume 21 – September / septembre 2019 African Development Bank Group Groupe de la Banque africaine de développement Journal africain de statistiques, numéro 21, septembre 2019 1 Designations employed in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the African Development Bank or the Editorial Board concerning the legal status of any country or territory, or the delimitation of its frontiers. The African Development Bank accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequences of its use. African Development Bank Group Avenue Joseph Anoma 01 BP 1387 Abidjan 01 Côte d’Ivoire Tel: (+225) 20 26 10 20 Email: [email protected] Internet: http://www.afdb.org Les dénominations employées dans cette publication n’impliquent, de la part de la Banque africaine de développement ou du comité de rédaction, aucune prise de position quant au statut juridique ou au tracé des frontières des pays. La Banque africaine de développement se dégage de toute respon- sabilité de l’utilisation qui pourra être faite de ces données. Groupe de la Banque africaine de développement Avenue Joseph Anoma 001 BP 1387 Abidjan 01 Côte d’Ivoire Tel: (+225) 20 26 10 20 Courriel: [email protected] Internet: http://www.afdb.org @AfDB/BAD, 2019– Statistics Department / Département des statistiques African Statistical Journal Journal africain de statistiques Volume 21 September / septembre 2019 Contents Editorial ................................................................................................................ 6 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................... 10 1. Quantification of Inflation Expectations from Business Tendency Survey Data in Uganda Kenneth Alpha Egesa ............................................................................................. 12 2. Cigarette Smoking in Tanzania-Prevalence and Determinants Asmerom Kidane, Aloyce Hepelwa, Kenneth Mdadila, Salvatory Macha, Anita Lee, Teh Wei Hu ........................................................................................... 31 3. Statistical Literacy for National Development Korter Grace, Olatunji Lateef, Omolehin Joseph, Olubusoye Olusanya .............................................................................................. 47 4. Statistical Indicators for Measuring Good Governance in Africa Dahud Kehinde Shangodoyin ................................................................................. 67 Call Of Papers ..................................................................................................... 80 Editorial policy .................................................................................................... 84 Guidelines for manuscript preparation and submission .............................. 87 4 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 21, September 2019 Table des matières Éditorial................................................................................................................ 8 Remerciements ..................................................................................................... 11 1. Quantification des anticipations d’inflation à partir des données de l’en- quête sur les tendances des entreprises en Ouganda Kenneth Alpha Egesa ............................................................................................. 12 2. Le tabagisme en Tanzanie: Prévalence et déterminants Asmerom Kidane, Aloyce Hepelwa, Kenneth Mdadila, Salvatory Macha, Anita Lee, Teh Wei Hu ........................................................................................... 31 3. Connaissances en statistique pour le développement national Korter Grace, Olatunji Lateef, Omolehin Joseph, Olubusoye Olusanya .............................................................................................. 47 4. Indicateurs statistiques pour mesurer la bonne gouvernance en Afrique Dahud Kehinde Shangodoyin ................................................................................. 67 Demande de soumissions d’articles .................................................................. 82 Ligne éditoriale .................................................................................................... 85 Instructions pour la préparation et la soumission des manuscrits ............ 90 Journal africain de statistiques, numéro 21, septembre 2019 5 Editorial We welcome our readers to Volume 21 of the African Statistical Journal (ASJ). The Journal’s mission remains unchanged since inception: to serve as a forum and common platform, to share ideas on statistical development in Africa, and to stimu- late discussion and dialogue on key emerging issues. The ASJ attempts to reach out not only to practicing statisticians and economists among others in Africa, but also to those beyond the continent who are keen to make incremental value addition to evolving developmental issues affecting the African citizenry. We begin this volume with an article entitled, “Quantification of Inflation Expecta- tions from Business Tendency – Survey Data in Uganda.” The article uses simple techniques for quantifying qualitative survey data on inflation expectations. The approach focused on firms’ responses regarding future selling prices. The trends in the numerical estimates of inflation expectations (quantitative estimates) were compared to the diffusion index for price expectations (qualitative estimates). The estimates from the two methods used did not differ significantly and it was not pos- sible to draw any conclusion on the superiority of one method over the other. The second article entitled “Cigarette Smoking in Tanzania – Prevalence and De- terminants,” demonstrates that smoking is on the decline in the developed world, and yet, the opposite is true in Africa. The article amplifies the fact that cigarette smokers are on average poor and unable to seek medical treatment from smoking induced illnesses. The results show that, smokers in Tanzania are more likely to be poor, elderly, less educated, farmers, and on average, male. The third article entitled “Statistical Literacy for National Development” amplifies the critical role of statistical literacy as a pillar for national development. Using the case of Nigeria, the article advocates for collaborative work between the Nigerian Statistical Association (NSA) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), empha- sis is also placed on a national statistical center charged with the responsibility of generating new resources that are consistent with the changing times. As part of the process, a website with requisite resources to foster the culture of statistical literacy is suggested as one of the instrumental variables to promote advancement in natio- nal development with clear roles for professional statisticians, and policymakers. The fourth and final article entitled “Statistical Indicators for Measuring Good Governance in Africa” places fundamental importance on the National Strategies 6 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 21, September 2019 Editorial for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) as a vehicle for realizing measurable governance statistical indicators to inform the evolving development agenda. The article recognizes the ever increasing demand for data, and singles out regional integration as one specific area that calls for comparable and coherent statistics at national, regional, and continental levels. The article bemoans the overreliance on donor funding for surveys in some African countries as it dampens prospects for sustainable statistical capacity across national statistical systems. We hope you will find the latest volume of the ASJ both informative and stimula- ting. We would like to thank the contributors and the reviewers, as well as all those who have made this volume a reality. We encourage the African Statistical Com- munity to continue using the ASJ as an authoritative forum for sharing knowledge, topical issues worth exploring, including among others, establishing how national statistical systems are responding to data requirements for African Agenda 2063, and UN Agenda 2030, including practical steps to fill the data gaps as a continuous process going forward. Dr. Charles Leyeka Lufumpa Professor Ben Kiregyera Co-Chair, Editorial Board Co-Chair, Editorial Board Statistics Department International Statistical Consultant, African Development Bank Kampala, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. Uganda. Email: c. [email protected] Email: [email protected] Journal africain de statistiques, numéro 21, septembre 2019 7 Éditorial Nous invitons nos lecteurs à découvrir le volume 21 du Journal africain de sta- tistique (ASJ). La mission du Journal n’a pas changé depuis ses débuts: servir de forum et de plate-forme commune, partager des idées sur le développement de la statistique en Afrique et stimuler le débat et le dialogue sur les principaux pro- blèmes émergents. L’ASJ tente non seulement de toucher des statisticiens et des économistes en exercice, notamment