ENSURE Project (Contract n° 212045) Del. 2.1.2 ENSURE PROJECT Contract n° 212045 WP 2: Integration and Connection of Vulnerabilities Del. 2.1.2: Relation between systemic and physical vulnerability and relation between systemic, social, economic, institutional and territorial vulnerability Reference code: ENSURE – Del. 2.1.2 The project is financed by the European Commission by the Seventh Framework Programme Area “Environment” Activity 6.1 “Climate Change, Pollution and Risks” 1 ENSURE Project (Contract n° 212045) Del. 2.1.2 Project Acronym: ENSURE Project Title: Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na- tech hazards Contract Number: 212045 Title of report: Del. 2.1.2: Relation between systemic and physical vulnerability and relation between systemic, social, economic, institutional and territorial vulnerability Reference code: ENSURE – Del. 2.1.2 Short Description: This Deliverable deals with the interaction between different types of vulnerability by following a systemic approach. It also investigates how systemic vulnerability receives influences from other domains of vulnerability. Relationships between different types of vulnerability and linkages among systems are revealed, using a theoretically informed case study approach. Authors and co-authors: HUA (K. Sapountzaki, L. Wassenhoven, Y. Melissourgos), POLIMI (S. Menoni, S. Kundak), BRGM (N. Desramaut, H. Modaressi), MDX (D. Parker, S. Tapsell), PIK (J. Kropp, L. Costa), TAU (G. Kidron), UNINA (A. Galderisi, A. Profice). Partners owning: HUA, POLIMI, BRGM, MDΧ, PIK, TAU, UNINA. Contributions: HUA, POLIMI, BRGM, MDΧ, PIK, TAU, UNINA. Made available to: All project partners, European Commission Versioning Version Date Name, organization 0.1 22/09/2009 HUA – POLIMI 0.2 22/10/2009 HUA – POLIMI 0.3 18/01/2010 HUA – POLIMI Quality check INTERNAL REVIEWERS: 2 ENSURE Project (Contract n° 212045) Del. 2.1.2 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc- sa/2.5/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 543 Howard Street, 5th Floor, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. 3 ENSURE Project (Contract n° 212045) Del. 2.1.2 Table of contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................................. 8 2. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................ 9 3. GENERAL CONCEPT AND OBJECTIVES..............................................................................................10 3.1 GENERAL FRAMEWORK AND EXPLANATION OF SYSTEMS AND SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY .......................... 10 3.2. VULNERABILITY TO STRESS AND VULNERABILITY TO LOSSES..................................................................... 13 3.3. TYPES OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VARIOUS VERSIONS OF VULNERABILITY .............................................. 17 3.4 EXPLORING THE MEANINGS AND POTENTIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN VULNERABILITY, COPING CAPACITY, AND EXPOSURE .................................................................................................................................................. 18 4. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PHYSICAL, LIFELINES’ AND TECHNICAL-HUMAN SYSTEMS’ VULNERABILITY........................................................................................................................ 19 4.1 INTERRELATIONS BETWEEN PHYSICAL AND SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY BEFORE, DURING AND POST DISASTER IN CARLISLE ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2 THE CASE OF SAN SALVADOR – INTERRELATIONS BETWEEN PHYSICAL, SYSTEMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL VULNERABILITY IN THE EMERGENCY / RELIEF PERIOD ....................................................................................... 22 4.2.a San Salvador: Technical-human systems’ vulnerability......................................................................22 5. INSTITUTIONAL VULNERABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF RISK MITIGATION .......................................................................................................................................... 27 5.1. VULNERABILITIES INHERENT TO INDIVIDUAL INSTITUTIONS: THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY OF ENGLAND & WALES AND THE SEISMIC DESIGN CODE OF EL SALVADOR .............................................................................. 27 5.2. VULNERABILITIES ARISING FROM THE INTERACTION AMONG INSTITUTIONS............................................... 28 5.2.a Flood warning and response in England during the 1990’s ............................................................... 28 5.3. VULNERABILITIES AS TRIGGERED AND TRIGGERING FACTORS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VULNERABILITIES .......................................................................................................................................................................... 32 5.3.a The summer 2007 floods in Gloucestershire, England: Interaction between institutional and social/economic vulnerability in the emergency and recovery phase .......................................................... 32 6. ECO-HUMAN SYSTEMS’ VULNERABILITY................................................................................. 34 6.a The Case of the Northern Negev: Variations of eco-human vulnerability ............................................. 38 6.b The Mega-Fires of August 2007, Ilia Prefecture, Peloponnese, Greece: Eco-human vulnerabilities along the disaster cycle ................................................................................................................................ 40 6.1. ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY TO PHYSICAL STRESS (DROUGHT AND FOREST FIRES) .................................. 47 6.2. ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY TO LOSSES (NA-TECH)................................................................................. 49 6.2.a The Na-tech event in Baia Mare in 2000............................................................................................. 50 6.2.b The Na-tech event in New Orleans in 2005........................................................................................ 53 7. TERRITORIAL SYSTEMS’ VULNERABILITY AS RESULTING FROM INTERACTIONS AMONG SOCIAL, INSTITUTIONAL, AND ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY........................................ 57 7.A THE CASE OF LONDON: PRE-DISASTER SYSTEMICALLY RELATED VULNERABILITIES AND EXPOSURES OF A METROPOLITAN (TERRITORIAL) SYSTEM ........................................................................................................... 57 7.B THE CASE OF EL SALVADOR: TERRITORIAL VULNERABILITY PRODUCED IN PRE-DISASTER TERMS ............. 62 7.C THE CASE OF ATHENS EXPOSED TO HEAT WAVES: TERRITORIAL VULNERABILITY ALONG THE DISASTER CYCLE................................................................................................................................................................ 64 7.D. THE CASE OF MEXICO CITY EARTHQUAKE, 1985: PRODUCTION AND MANIFESTATION OF TERRITORIAL VULNERABILITIES ALL ALONG THE DISASTER CYCLE ......................................................................................... 69 8. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN INTEGRATING VULNERABILITY ASPECTS........... 76 8.1. CATALYSTS OF VULNERABILITY RELATIONSHIPS........................................................................................ 79 9. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................. 80 10. REFERENCES.............................................................................................................................................. 83 4 ENSURE Project (Contract n° 212045) Del. 2.1.2 List of Figures FIGURE 1: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DIFFERENT FORMS OF VULNERABILITY.................... 11 FIGURE 2: INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT FORMS OF VULNERABILITY...................... 12 FIGURE 3: TRANSFERS OF PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY EFFECTS TO ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY, AND THE MULTIPLIER LINKAGE EFFECTS BETWEEN ECONOMIC PROCESSES AND ASSOCIATED INSTITUTIONS ..................................................................................... 13 FIGURE 4: COMPLEX CHAIN OF DISASTERS.......................................................................................... 15 FIGURE 5: COMPLEX IMPACT CHAIN DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF A FOREST FIRE ......... 16 FIGURE 6: MAP OF CARLISLE FLOODS 2005...........................................................................................20 FIGURE 7: CARLISLE FLOOD IN JANUARY 2005.................................................................................... 21 FIGURE 8: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PHYSICAL, LIFELINES’ AND TECHNICAL-HUMAN SYSTEMS’ VULNERABILITY IN CARLISLE ............................................................................................. 22 FIGURE 9: DECREASE OF INTERNAL SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY OF ELECTRIC LIFELINES IN SAN SALVADOR DUE TO PAST EXPERIENCES AND IMPROVEMENT IN RESISTANCE (CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP).............................................................................................................. 23 FIGURE 10: DECREASE OF INTERNAL SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY OF ELECTRIC LIFELINES IN SAN SALVADOR DUE TO MULTIPLE SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION ................ 23 FIGURE 11: INTERNAL SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITY OF ELECTRICITY