University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk 04 University of Plymouth Research Theses 01 Research Theses Main Collection 2012 Sea Level Rise and Sustainability of the Nigerian Coastal Zone Popoola, Olusola Olalekan http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/907 University of Plymouth All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. Copyright Statement This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that no quotation from the thesis and no information derived from it may be published without the author’s prior written consent. i SEA LEVEL RISE AND SUSTAINABILITY OF THE NIGERIAN COASTAL ZONE by OLUSOLA OLALEKAN POPOOLA A thesis submitted to Plymouth University in partial fulfilment for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School of Marine Science and Engineering Faculty Science and Technology January 2012 ii Olusola Olalekan Popoola Sea Level Rise and Sustainability of the Nigerian coastal Zone Abstract Globally, sea levels have risen in the last century, and various projections suggest substantial increases in sea level due to climate change in this century. In Nigeria, there are no up-to-date sea level rise (SLR) assessments for the coast. Much of the Nigerian coast is low lying with the consequence that a 1 to 3 metres rise in sea level, which may result from eustatic or climate change, will have a catastrophic effect on the human activities in these regions. This study examines the consequences of continued sea level rise with a focus on erosion and inundation for the Nigerian coast and considers the coastal management practices of coastal partnerships (CPs). The Nigerian coast has been delineated according to distinct geomorphological units, which include the Barrier, Mud, Delta and Strand coasts. The Bruun model has been used to compute shoreline recession along the Nigerian coast with the exception of the Mud coast. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to develop inundation models and examine the impact scenarios that SLR will have on critical elements, which include land, population, economic activity (Gross Domestic Product), urban extent, agriculture and wetlands with the aid of high quality spatially disaggregated global data. A case study approach was used to assess the management practices of Pro- Natural International Nigeria; Niger Delta Wetland Centre, Niger Delta Development Commission; and Flood Erosion and Coastal Zone Management, Rivers State with the aid of a suite of systemic sustainability appraisal indices. Results indicate that shoreline recession will be mild along the coast while substantial loss due to inundation of the critical elements is expected for all the scenarios considered. The sustainability assessment indicates that the CPs did not meet the required standard for sustainability, however there was evidence of constructive management in some of them. This study has been able to provide up-to-date baseline data concerning the vulnerability of the coast to SLR for the four coastal systems in Nigeria. The coastal sustainability assessment, which is the first ever in Nigeria, reflects the need for corrective measures in the management practices of the CPs to achieve a sustainable coast in the light of coastal hazards. iii Table of Contents Copyright Statement .......................................................................................................... i Abstract ............................................................................................................................ iii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................. iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures ................................................................................................................ xiv List of Maps .................................................................................................................. xvii Glossary .......................................................................................................................... xx Symbols ......................................................................................................................... xxii Acknowledgement ....................................................................................................... xxiii Authors Declaration ..................................................................................................... xxiv Publications .................................................................................................................. xxiv Presentations, courses and Conferences....................................................................... xxiv CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 The coast............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Changes in the coastal zone (Sea Level Rise) .................................................... 3 1.3 Integrated Coastal Zone Management ................................................................ 6 1.4 Research Aim and Objectives ............................................................................ 7 1.5 Structure of the Thesis ........................................................................................ 8 iv CHAPTER TWO ............................................................................................................ 11 2.0 Sea Level Rise and Integrated Coastal Zone Management .............................. 11 2.1 Introduction: ..................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Sea Level Rise and the need for coastal management ...................................... 11 2.2.1 Sea Level Rise Estimates .......................................................................... 11 2.2.2 Uncertainties in Sea Level Rise Assessment ............................................ 15 2.2.3 Need for Coastal Management .................................................................. 20 2.3 Shoreline Retreat .............................................................................................. 21 2.3.1 The Bruun Rule ......................................................................................... 22 2.3.2 Significance of the Limitations of the Bruun Model ................................ 24 2.3.3 Accounting for Uncertainty in Shoreline Change Assessments ............... 28 2.4 Inundation ......................................................................................................... 30 2.5 Impacted Phenomena ....................................................................................... 34 2.5.1 Land........................................................................................................... 34 2.5.2 Population ................................................................................................. 34 2.5.3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ................................................................ 35 2.5.4 Urban Extent ............................................................................................. 37 2.5.5 Agricultural Extent .................................................................................... 37 2.5.6 Wetlands .................................................................................................... 38 2.6 Integrated Coastal Zone Management .............................................................. 38 2.6.1 Principles and antecedents of Integrated Coastal Zone Management ....... 38 2.6.2 Sustainability ............................................................................................. 45 2.6.3 Sustainability Assessment: Indicators ....................................................... 49 2.6.4 Coastal Sustainability Indicators ............................................................... 51 2.6.5 Coastal Sustainability Standard‘s principles, criteria and guidelines ....... 63 2.6.5.1 Planning ............................................................................................ 63 v 2.6.5.2 Participation ....................................................................................... 65 2.6.5.3 Communication ................................................................................. 65 2.6.5.4 Integration ......................................................................................... 66 2.6.5.5 Responsibility ................................................................................... 66 2.6.5.6 Balance ............................................................................................. 67 2.7 ICZM in Nigeria ............................................................................................... 67 CHAPTER THREE........................................................................................................