2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF LATVIA Boosting productivity and inclusiveness September 15th 2017, Riga Latvia http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-latvia.htm Main messages • The Latvian economy is growing strongly, underpinned by progress with economic reforms. • Deeper integration into international trade is necessary to catch up with high-income countries. • Poverty and unemployment are still high. Access to jobs, housing and health services need to improve. 1 Growth has been strong Real GDP, Index 2007 =100 110 110 Latvia Estonia Euro area 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). 2 Exports have gained market share Export performance indicator, moving average 2010=100 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). 3 Unemployment has fallen Unemployment rate as % of labour force 24 Latvia Euro area 24 20 20 16 16 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). 4 Wages have grown more than prices Growth of labour compensation per employee and consumer price inflation % % 12 12 Worker pay Inflation 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). 5 20 40 60 80 Source: OECD (2017) Going for Growth 2017 2017 Growth for Going (2017) OECD Source: 0 % IDN SVN AUS Growthfor reform 2017The Going CAN ISL TUR LUX PRT POL CHE NZL ZAF KOR reformer top a is Latvia FIN edition. GBR SVK HUN SWE USA COL OECD ESP responsiveness indicator NOR IND JPN DEU DNK NLD CZE EST IRL ITA GRC MEX CHN ISR CHL AUT BEL BRA FRA LVA 6 Debt has fallen Debt as % of GDP % % 200 200 Households Non-financial corporations 160 160 120 120 80 80 40 40 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: OECD (2017), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database) and OECD National Accounts Statistics (database). 7 Important challenges remain 8 The gap in productivity remains large Gap in GDP per capita of Latvia vis-à-vis the upper half of OECD countries % -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70 -75 -80 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: OECD (2017), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database) and OECD Productivity Statistics (database). 9 Poverty is high Share of population with disposable income below the poverty line, 2015 or latest % % 18 18 15 15 12 12 9 9 6 6 3 3 0 0 IRL ITA FIN BEL LTU LVA LUX EST PRT AUT SVK ESP CZE SVN GBR GRC NOR OECD Source: OECD (2017), OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database). 10 Gini Source:OECD (2017), OECD Socialand Welfare Statistics(database). 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 coefficient, scale scale from coefficient, ISL SVK SVN DNK CZE NOR Income inequality remains high FIN BEL AUT 0 0 to equality) (perfect SWE LUX HUN DEU KOR FRA CHE IRL POL 1 NLD 2015 inequality), (perfect CAN OECD ITA JPN AUS PRT GRC ESP EST NZL LVA or latest ISR GBR USA available TUR CHL MEX 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 11 Higher income, better housing and better health would raise wellbeing OECD Better Life Index, from 0 (worse) to 1 (best), 2016 Latvia OECD Income and wealth 1.0 Subjective well-being Jobs and earnings 0.8 0.6 Personal security 0.4 Housing 0.2 0.0 Environmental quality Work and life balance Civic engagement and Health status governance Social connections Education and skills Source: OECD (2016), OECD Better Life Index- Edition 2016. 12 -10 10 Source -5 0 5 % 2009M3 : Bank of Latvia 2009M6 2009M9 2009M12 2010M3 . 2010M6 2010M9 Year 2010M12 weak still is growth Credit 2011M3 - Households on 2011M6 - 2011M9 change percentage of year credit stock 2011M12 2012M3 2012M6 2012M9 2012M12 2013M3 2013M6 2013M9 2013M12 2014M3 Non-financial corporations 2014M6 2014M9 2014M12 2015M3 2015M6 2015M9 2015M12 2016M3 2016M6 2016M9 2016M12 2017M3 % -5 0 5 -10 10 13 Seize opportunities in global markets to catch up with high-income countries 14 Productivity growth has slowed % Average annual growth of labour productivity % 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1995-2005 2005-2016 1995-2005 2005-2016 1995-2005 2005-2016 Total Manufacturing Business sector services Source: OECD (2017), OECD Productivity Statistics (database). 15 Trade could boost productivity and income Domestic value added per worker embodied in foreign final demand, 2011 Source: OECD/WTO (2016), Statistics on Trade in Value Added (database) and OECD (2016), "Trade in Employment: Core Indicators" in OECD Structural Analysis (STAN) Databases. 16 Latvia must move up the value chain to knowledge-intensive activities 17 Source: OECD (2013), Interconnected Economies: Benefiting from Global Value Chains, OECD Publishing, Paris. Many workers feel under-skilled at the time of hiring Share of employees reporting lower skill level than required for their jobs at the time of hiring, 2014 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 ITA IRL FIN LTU BEL LVA LUX EST NLD AUT FRA PRT CZE ESP SVK POL SVN DEU DNK HUN GBR GRC SWE Source: CEDEFOP (2016), “Skills Panorama” (http://skillspanorama.cedefop.europa.eu). 18 Skill shortages are holding back participation in global value chains Share of employees reporting lower skill level than required for their current jobs, 2014 % % 15 15 12 12 9 9 6 6 3 3 0 0 ITA IRL FIN LTU BEL LVA LUX EST PRT AUT CZE NLD FRA ESP POL SVK SVN DEU DNK HUN GBR GRC SWE Source: CEDEFOP (2016), “Skills Panorama” (http://skillspanorama.cedefop.europa.eu). 19 Few firms cooperate with research institutions The share of firms engaging in research cooperation % of all product and/or process-innovating firms, 2012-14 % % 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 ISL ITA FIN LTU LVA BEL LUX EST PRT CZE FRA NLD AUT SVK POL SVN CHE DNK HUN GRC NOR SWE DEU Source: Eurostat (2016), Community Innovation Survey (CIS). 20 Source 100 60 80 20 40 0 % : WorldBank (2017),: Doing Business 2016: Measuring RegulatoryandQuality Efficiency (Resolvinginsolvency database). TUR CHL credit access to hampers recovery debt Low GRC EST HUN LUX CHE LVA recovery Average SVK POL ISR ITA CZE MEX OECD PRT rate from insolvency, 2016 SWE ESP FRA USA AUS AUT NZL DEU KOR ISL CAN IRL DNK GBR SVN NLD BEL FIN JPN NOR % 40 60 80 0 20 100 21 Infrastructure lags behind peer countries Global Competitiveness Index, scale from 1 to 7 (best) 2016-17 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Latvia Estonia Lithuania Finland Source: World Economic Forum, "The Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017". 22 Recommendations to seize opportunities in global markets to catch up with high-income countries Provide more generous grants for students attending vocational schools who are from low-income families. Expand grants for university students and target them to students from low-income families. Increase government funding of innovation promotion programmes with strong evaluation results. Strengthen the specialisation of judges to improve the insolvency regime. Apply the same cost-benefit tests to large national infrastructure projects as are applied to EU-funded projects. 23 Improving access to jobs, housing, and health services 24 Unemployment is high in some regions Unemployment as % of the labour force, 2016 % % 20 20 16 16 12 12 8 8 4 4 0 0 Latvia Pierīga Riga Vidzeme Kurzeme Zemgale Latgale Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia. 25 High unemployment keeps poverty high Share of population with disposable income below 60% of median household income % % 45 45 36 36 27 27 18 18 9 9 0 0 Latvia Riga Pierīga Kurzeme Zemgale Vidzeme Latgale Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia. 26 Access to affordable rental housing is low % Share of rental housing, low-income households, 2014 or latest year % 80 80 Rent (private)¹ Rent (subsidized)² 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 ISL ITA IRL FIN LTU LVA BEL EST LUX CZE FRA AUT PRT SVK ESP POL SVN CHE DEU HUN KOR GBR GRC NOR CHL³ NLD³ AUS³ USA³ CAN³ DNK³ MEX³ SWE³ Source: OECD (2016), OECD Affordable Housing Database. 27 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 Source MEX : OECD (2017), OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics (database). USA is policies market labour active on Spending JPN LVA ISR CHL EST % 2015 recent Public most of GDP, expenditure, or SVK AUS GBR CAN SVN LTU NZL KOR CZE POL ITA low OECD NOR PRT IRL CHE ESP DEU LUX BEL AUT NLD HUN FIN FRA SWE DNK 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 28 Out-of-pocket payments in healthcare are high Household out-of-pocket expenditure, % of total current expenditure on health care, 2015 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 ISL IRL ITA FIN ISR JPN BEL LVA LUX EST FRA NLD CZE AUT ESP PRT CHL SVK POL TUR USA SVN DEU DNK CAN CHE HUN GBR KOR MEX NOR GRC SWE OECD Source: OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics (database) 29 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 % Source FIN pensions private fees for high pay Workers DNK : OECD (2017), OECD Pensions Statistics (database).