CONTENTS Notation ....................................................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................... xvii Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. xviii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Climate and Policy Context ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Previous LCA and C2G Work .................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Overview of the Present C2G Study ........................................................................................... 3 1.4 Report Organization .................................................................................................................... 5 1.5 References for Section 1 ............................................................................................................. 5 2 Overview of Methodology ..................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Study Scope, Definitions and Major Assumptions ..................................................................... 8 2.2 Approach of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Use LCA ................................................ 9 2.3 Vehicle Modeling Approach ..................................................................................................... 10 2.4 Fuel Modeling Approach .......................................................................................................... 11 2.5 References for Section 2 ........................................................................................................... 12 3 Vehicle-Fuel Pathway Selection and Vehicle Technologies ............................................. 13 3.1 Vehicle-Fuel Pathways ............................................................................................................. 13 3.2 Description of Selected Vehicle Technologies ......................................................................... 13 3.3 Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) ...................................................................................... 15 3.4 References for Section 3 ........................................................................................................... 18 4 Fuel Pathways: GHG Assumptions and Data Sources .................................................... 20 4.1 Petroleum Pathways .................................................................................................................. 20 4.1.1 Crude Production ......................................................................................................... 21 4.1.2 GHG Emissions in Oil Fields ...................................................................................... 21 4.1.3 Crude Refining ............................................................................................................. 23 4.2 Natural Gas Pathway ................................................................................................................. 24 4.3 Biofuels Pathways ..................................................................................................................... 25 4.3.1 Corn Ethanol ................................................................................................................ 25 4.3.2 Corn Stover Ethanol ..................................................................................................... 26 4.3.3 Soybeans to Fatty Acid Methyl Ester and Hydroprocessed Renewable Diesel ........... 28 4.3.4 Land Use Change from Biofuel Production ................................................................. 31 4.3.5 Pyrolysis of Cellulosic Biomass .................................................................................. 32 iii 4.4 Hydrogen Pathways .................................................................................................................. 34 4.4.1 Steam Methane Reforming of Natural Gas .................................................................. 35 4.4.2 Water Electrolysis ........................................................................................................ 35 4.4.3 Biomass Gasification ................................................................................................... 35 4.4.4 Hydrogen Delivery (Transmission, Distribution, and Refueling) ................................ 35 4.5 Gas-To-Liquid (GTL) Pathways ............................................................................................... 37 4.6 Electricity Pathways .................................................................................................................. 37 4.7 Changes to Default Estimates from GREET 2014 .................................................................... 38 4.8 References for Section 4 ........................................................................................................... 39 5 Fuel Pathways: Cost Assumptions and Data Sources ..................................................... 45 5.1 Approach, Assumptions, and Summary of Fuel Costs ............................................................. 45 5.2 Transportation Fuel Price Estimates from AEO 2015 .............................................................. 47 5.3 Pyrolysis Fuels .......................................................................................................................... 48 5.4 Future Technology Diesel Fuels (HRD, FAME, GTL/FTD) .................................................... 48 5.4.1 Hydroprocessed Renewable Diesel (HRD) Pathway ................................................... 49 5.4.2 Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) Pathway ................................................................. 49 5.4.3 Gas-To-Liquid Fischer-Tropsch Diesel (GTL FTD) Pathway ..................................... 49 5.5 Ethanol (E85) from Corn Stover ............................................................................................... 50 5.6 Electricity .................................................................................................................................. 51 5.7 Hydrogen Fuel .......................................................................................................................... 51 5.8 References for Section 5 ........................................................................................................... 53 6 Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Cost Assumptions .......................................................... 56 6.1 Autonomie Summary ................................................................................................................ 56 6.2 Vehicle Components Sizing ...................................................................................................... 57 6.3 Fuel Economy and Electricity Consumption ............................................................................ 58 6.4 Vehicle Weight and Composition ............................................................................................. 61 6.4.1 Advanced Battery Cost Assumptions .......................................................................... 63 6.5 Vehicle Cost .............................................................................................................................. 65 6.6 References for Section 6 ........................................................................................................... 68 7 Vehicle Production Pathways ............................................................................................. 70 7.1 System Boundary for Vehicle Production Pathways ................................................................ 70 7.2 Material Composition for Each Component ............................................................................. 71 7.3 Key Material for Vehicle Production Pathways........................................................................ 76 7.3.1 Steel Production Pathways ........................................................................................... 76 7.3.2 Cast Iron Production Pathway ..................................................................................... 77 iv 7.3.3 Aluminum Production Pathway ................................................................................... 77 7.3.4 Plastic and CFRP Production Pathways ....................................................................... 81 7.3.5 Li-ion Battery Production Pathways ............................................................................ 83 7.3.6 Other Key Materials Production Pathways .................................................................. 86 7.4 Vehicle Assembly, Disposal, and Recycling ............................................................................ 87 7.5 References for Section 7 ........................................................................................................... 88 8 Cradle-to-Grave GHG Results and Sensitivity ................................................................. 92 8.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions ......................................................................................................