Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department Member of DAILY REPORT August 25, 2016 FX RATES EUR mn 124 EUR/RSD 60 FX rates on domestic market 123 50 Currency Value Previous Change YTD 122 40 EUR/RSD 123.3773 123.4071 -0.02% -1.44% 121 30 USD/RSD 109.4450 109.2292 0.20% 1.62% 120 20 CHF/RSD 113.1590 113.2903 -0.12% -0.57% GBP/RSD 144.7241 143.9318 0.55% 12.26% 119 10 Source: NBS 118 0 entral bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 7,3 mio EUR at average rate 123,3886. Turnover on FX market (right axis) Source: NBS International markets Currency Value Previous Change YTD EUR/USD EUR/USD 1.1264 1.1305 -0.36% -3.70% 1.16 1.15 EUR/CHF 1.0892 1.0891 0.01% -0.09% 1.14 EUR/GBP 0.8512 0.8566 -0.63% 10.21% 1.13 GBP/USD 1.3232 1.3198 0.26% 16.44% 1.12 USD/JPY 100.45 100.24 0.21% -15.50% 1.11 Source: Bloomberg 1.1 1.09 Economic indicators 1.08 Country/ Time Indicator Period Previous Projection Region 14:30 US Durable goods orders July -3.90% 3.40% Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value Key policy rate 4.00% RSD Interest rates 10 Next decision 8.9.2016 Deposit facility 2.50% 9 NBS key rate Lending facility 5.50% 8 Beonia Repo operations (1 week) 2.98% 7 Belibor 3M Source: NBS 6 5 Interbank interest rates - Serbia 4 Value Previous Change 3 BEONIA 2.95% 2.93% 0.02 2 BELIBOR1M 3.30% 3.30% 0.00 BELIBOR3M 3.56% 3.57% -0.01 BELIBOR 6M 3.78% 3.78% 0.00 Source: Reuters Source: NBS Major interest rates EUR Interest rates Value Next decision 0.3 Eurozone (ECB) 0.00% 8.9.2016. ECB main rate 0.2 US (Fed) 0.50% 21.09.2016. Euribor 3M United Kingdom (BOE) 0.25% 0.1 Switzerland (SNB) -0.75% 0 Source: Bloomberg -0.1 Interbank Interest rates - Europe -0.2 24.8.2016 23.8.2016 Change (bps) -0.3 EONIA -0.339% -0.340% 0.001 EURIBOR1M -0.368% -0.369% 0.001 -0.4 EURIBOR3M -0.298% -0.298% 0.000 EURIBOR6M -0.191% -0.192% 0.001 Source: Bloomberg, EBF Sources: ECB, EBF Note: Values are with 2 days delay Libor Interest rates Interest rate Swap Value Previous Change Value Previous Change Libor 1M (USD) 0.520% 0.524% -0.004 EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING -0.192% -0.200% 0.008 Libor 3M (USD) 0.825% 0.825% 0.000 EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING -0.122% -0.131% 0.009 Libor 6M (USD) 1.223% 1.229% -0.006 EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING 0.304% 0.281% 0.023 Libor 1M (CHF) -0.806% -0.806% 0.000 USD ISDA 3Y FIXING 1.043% 1.054% -0.011 Libor 3M (CHF) -0.739% -0.739% 0.000 USD ISDA 5Y FIXING 1.144% 1.160% -0.016 Libor 6M (CHF) -0.655% -0.655% 0.000 USD ISDA 10Y FIXING 1.383% 1.413% -0.030 Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales 2013- present 14.5 RSD Government securities 12.5 Maturity Date Value Previous 10.5 3 month 04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 6 month 03.03.2016 3.25% 3.25% 8.5 53 week 27.07.2016 3.59% 4.01% 6.5 2 year 13.06.2016 4.30% 4.95% 3 year 11.08.2016 5.00% 5.37% 4.5 5 year 20.10.2015 6.50% 10.80% 2.5 7 year 19.07.2016 5.98% 10.75% 10 year 21.10.2014 12.99% NBS key NBS key rate 23.06.2016 3y 3m 53w 6m NBS key rate 5y 10y + 0.45% 24 month amortizing rate + 0.25% Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public Debt Management Agency Scheduled auctions for this week Date Instrument Currency Volume bps JP Morgan EMBI Serbia 53 week T-bills 50,000,000 24-Aug EUR 450 400 350 300 250 200 EUR government securities Maturity Date Value Previous 150 53 week 20.06.2016 0.79% 0.85% 2 year 28.07.2016 1.09% 1.18% 3 year 22.06.2016 2.59% 2.59% 5 year 22.03.2016 3.45% 4.00% 10 year 25.05.2016 4.20% 4.40% Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Source: Public Debt Management Agency Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Serbian Eurobond yields (USD) Serbia Credit rating Moody's S&P Fitch Value Previous UST spread B1 BB- BB- Serbia 5y 2017 2.361% 2.364% 1.921% Outlook Positive Stable Stable Serbia 5y 2018 3.035% 3.042% 2.237% Latest update 18.3.2016 1.7.2016 17.6.2016 Serbia 7y 2020 3.585% 3.614% 2.623% Source: Bloomberg Serbia 10y 2021 3.757% 3.766% 2.647% Serbia 20y 2024 6.467% 6.465% Source: Bloomberg Serbian 10-year Eurobond 2021 117 Price Yield (right axis) 4.9 116 4.7 115 4.5 114 4.3 113 112 4.1 111 3.9 Source: Bloomberg 110 3.7 jul.16 jan.16 feb.16 okt.15 jun.16 apr.16 sep.15 maj.16 avg.15 dec.15 nov.15 mar.16 Source: Bloomberg 2 Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta EQUITIES SERBIA Value Value from the previous day Change (%) Change YTD Belex 15 620.28 622.35 -0.33% -7.01% Belex line 1,368.74 1,374.99 -0.45% 1.78% Turnover 8,428,569 Din. 13,803,275 Din. -38.94% Source: Beogradska berza 68,299 € 111,848 € -38.94% Ratios P / B P / E Belex15 0,67 12,15 BELEX15 Belex line 800 1,600 750 700 1,400 650 600 1,200 550 500 1,000 avg.14 nov.14 feb.15 maj.15 avg.15 nov.15 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 avg.14 nov.14 feb.15 maj.15 avg.15 nov.15 feb.16 maj.16 avg.16 Daily change of Belex 15 members 1.66% 1.95% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.16% -0.43% -0.34% -8.56% FITO MTLC NIIS AIKB KMBN SJPT ALFA JESV TGAS AERO ENHL The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day Turnover Daily Weekly Company Ticker Price RSD P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization RSD change change NIS AD NOVI SAD NIIS 579 986,037 -0.32% 1.83% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 94,411,971,600 Din. ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO ENHL 1,256 2,530,840 1.77% 1.17% 1.63 331.01 0.53 13,729,702,752 Din. AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO AERO 1,041 2,269,380 1.66% -0.19% 1.43 10.44 14.52 35,695,213,350 Din. RUDO AD BEOGRAD RUDO 150 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.41 #N/A N/A -5.68 99,907,650 Din. MESSER TEHNOGAS AD TGAS 10,156 406,240 0.15% -4.07% 0.87 20.01 4.23 10,528,298,648 Din. TERMOVENT SC LIVNICA CELIKA TLVC 2,600 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.97 15.94 6.19 157,479,400 Din. ENERGOPROJEKT INDUSTRIJA EPIN 2,491 0 0.00% 0.00% 1.59 40.32 2.68 491,499,210 Din. IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO IMPL 2,000 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.69 7.10 10.27 1,884,574,000 Din. GOSA FOM A.D. SMEDEREVSKA PA GFOM 370 108,040 0.00% 0.00% 0.34 158.39 0.21 506,531,110 Din. ENERGOPROJEKT ENTEL AD BEOGREPEN 13,117 0 0.00% 0.00% 5.03 13.98 42.27 5,541,866,915 Din. INSTITUT ZA ISPITIVANJE MATE INMT 10,000 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.12 92.59 0.13 191,660,000 Din. ENERGOPROJEKT OPREMA AD ENOP 4,001 0 0.00% -0.28% 1.69 7.97 22.27 1,406,511,540 Din. Source: Belex Serbia, China expected to agree estimated value of works to modernize railway linking Belgrade with Hungary's capital Budapest within a month, Serbia infrastructure minister says - Serbia and China have not yet agreed on the financing model for the modernization of the railway linking Belgrade with Hungary’s capital Budapest because they are yet to align positions on the estimated value of the works, “which is close to EUR 1 billion,” according to Construction, Transportation, and Infrastructure Minister Zorana Mihajlovic, Beta reported yesterday. Mihajlovic said that she expects the exact value of the project to be determined within a month, based on a feasibility study. Mihajlovic also recalled that the Stara Pazova-Novi Sad portion of the Belgrade-Budapest railway is financed under Russia’s loan for Serbia’s railway modernization projects, according to Beta. (Source: Executive newsletter) Kazakhstan’s president, top Serbian officials call for boosting bilateral trade, economic cooperation during meetings in Belgrade - Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic said yesterday following a meeting with Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev in Belgrade that he expects that Kazakhstan will help Serbia reach a free trade agreement with the entire Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), adding that Nazarbayev “provided guarantees” that a certain quantity of Serbia-made Fiat cars will be imported into the EEU free of duties, local media reported.