Rural Population in England and Wales: A Study of the Changes of Density, Occupations, and Ages Author(s): A. L. Bowley Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 77, No. 6 (May, 1914), pp. 597-652 Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2340305 . Accessed: 28/06/2014 12:57 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Wiley and Royal Statistical Society are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 141.101.201.103 on Sat, 28 Jun 2014 12:57:30 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Vol. LXXVII.] [Part VI. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY. MAY, 1914. RURAL POPULATION in ENGLAND and WALES: a STUDY of the CHANGES of DENSITY, OCCUPATIONS, and AGES. By A. L. BOWLEY, SC.D. [Read beforethe Royal StatisticalSociety, April 21, 1914, Mr. G. UDNY YULIE, M.A., HonorarySecretary, in the Chair.] I.-The separationof, Rural from Urban Areas, and thechanges in theirpopulation. IN this paper I proposeto give the resultsof an analyticalstudy of the nature and changes of rural populationin England and Wales. Ruralpopulation might be definedeither from consideration ofits density, or ofits occupations,or fromits positionin thescheme of local administration;or it mightbe taken as the residualof the populationof the Kingdomafter that of a scheduledlist of boroughsand townshad been abstracted. Of these definitions I regardthat which depends mainly on densityas mostsatisfactory, while that dependingon the administrativedistinction between Urbanand Rural Districtsis notonly misleading but also inapplicable to the Censusstatistics prior to 1891. Actuallythe greatmajority of Urban Districtsand CountyBorouighs have a densityof over I personper acre, and the greatmajority of areas whosedensity is less thanthis are in Rural Districts,so thata simpledensity line does in factcorrespond nearly with the administrativedistinction; but about 8o (out ofthe 657) RuralDistricts have a densitybetween o 5 and i per acre, and in thesethe majorityof the populationis connectedwith industryor miningor with neighbouringtowns. Rural Districtswhich contain no industrialor urban constituents VQL. LXXVII. PART VI. 2 T This content downloaded from 141.101.201.103 on Sat, 28 Jun 2014 12:57:30 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 598 BOWLEY-BuralPopulation in Englandand WVales: [May, have rarelya densityof morethan o * . For the purposesof this paper I mighthave definedbriefly rural areas as those adminis- trativeRural Districtswhose densityin the Census of 1911 was 30 per ioo acresor less,and the rural populationas the population enumeratedon these areas; but I have modifiedthis definition in practiceon the one hand by includinga smallnumber of districts wherethe densitywas between30 and 50 per IOO acres, and on the otherhand by takingthe civilparish as the unitand excluding a numberof dense parishes in sparse districts. The inclusion or exclusionof a particularparish was a matterof judgment; and morelocal knowledgethan I possessof those regions which, though mainlyrural, have some urban disturbance,would be necessaryif a hardand fastline were to be drawn. Mymethod was to challenge the districtswith densityover 30 and the parisheswith density over40, and to findby any meansI couldwhether this density was due to the presenceof mines, or offactories, or to scatteredindustry on a largescale, or to its use as a place ofresidence for people whose workwas in neighbouringtowns, or to militarydisturbance, or to the scatteredhomes of the leisured,or to provisionfor stummer visitors. If I could findno such reason,I leftthe parishas rural and assumed special agricultuiraldevelopment.' The list of districtsand parishesactually subtracted for the constructionof Table I is givenin AppendixI, pp. 629 seq. Forthe same table, use was made of the Censusaccounts of disturbinginfluences, and the inhabitantsof schools,of urbanhospitals and po6rlaw institutions situatedin countrydistricts,2 and soldiersand sailorsand others, weresubtracted; and further,when the parishcontained temporarv occupants,owing to the constructionof railways,waterworks, &c., or to any otherreason, whose number could not be distinguished, the wholeparish was omittedso as not to vitiatecomparison. The rural populationthus definedmust be distinguishedfrom the agriculturalpopulation ; foras willpresently be seenthe latter is to be foundin largenumbers in Urban Districts as wellas in dense Rural Districts,while in theRural Districtsas a wholethe majority of the populationis not directlyagricultural. One importanceof this particularanalysis lies in showingthat the growthof the populationof rural areas, taken crudely,is dominatedby urban influences. 1 In a few cases a parish of small area is dense from the presence of a large village,whose inhabitantswork on the land in neighbouringparishes. 2 Countyasylums were subtractedfrom the rural districtsin which they were situated,and are not replaced in Table I; but in Table lII they were includedin the registrationcounties. This content downloaded from 141.101.201.103 on Sat, 28 Jun 2014 12:57:30 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 1914.] a Studyof the Changes of Density, Occupations, and Ages. 599 Some difficultiesdue to changeof boundariesarose in Table I in comparingthe 1911 populationwith that of 1891, but none of themwere serious,and they were met by reasonablehypotheses as to the proportionof populationaffected. When,however, the work of carrvingback the comparisonto 1861 was undertaken, the difficultieswere great and the complexityalmost overwhelming. This part of the analvsis was carriedout entirelyby Mr. A. R. Burnett-Hurstat the School of Economics,who also prepared muchiof the other material and helpedin mnostparts of the statistics; withouthis co-operationthe work wouildhave been prohibitive. We followedthe usual Censusplan, by definingthe areas as in 1911 and estimatingthe populationat formerdates on these areas. The unittaken was the civilparish and the wholecalculation made fromthe reports on populations in RegistrationDistricts. As nearlyas possiblethe same areas weretaken as forTable I, and the same adjustmentsmade for occasionalpopulation. Between each pairof consecutive censuses a vast numberof changes has been inade, many of them affectingthe boundariesof civil parishes. Wherethese took place in districtsto be treatedas rural,their nature had to be traced,and approximationsmade (in the lightof density of proportion,and of the movementin neighbouringparishes) as to the populationsat earlierdates of the areas affected.In a few cases the data were so insufficientthat the errormight have vitiatedthe totals,and thenthe wholeregistration district or suib- districthad to be excluded; such exclusionsaccount for the difference(550,000) betweenthe figuresfor the rural population in 1911 in Tables I and III. Since adjustmentof boundaries generallytakes place where industrialor suburban growthis marked,the districtsexcluded for this reasonwere principallyin the neighbourhoodof towns or industries. The populationincluded in each RegistrationDistrict of whichthe whole or partwas treated as ruralis givenfor the years 1861, 1901, 1911, togetherwith its densityin 1911,in AppendixII, pp. 634seq. In a fewcases it was necessaryto throwtwo districtstogether. Where the approxi- mationwas speciallyuncertain the doubtfulnumber is asterisked in the list. It is believedthat none of the errorscould sensibly affectTable III, wherethe numbersare estimatedto the nearcest I,OOO. The detailedwork was carriedout to thenearest IOO. We may nowturn to the tables. 2 T This content downloaded from 141.101.201.103 on Sat, 28 Jun 2014 12:57:30 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 600 BOwLEY-RuralPopulation in Englandand Wales: [May, TABLE I.-The population(1891-1911) of theadministrative Rural Distrwcts in each county,and of thoseareas of Enqglandand Wales whichwere practicallyuninIluenced by urban, industrial or miningconditions in 1911. Populationin 000's. Desity: personsper 100acres. AdmAdministrative PopulationIn Population, inistrative aggate of Rural Den aftfersubtraction of Den- Per- Counties. Isrcs sity mining,Industrial and sity cent- __________________ in suburbanareas, in age 1911. 1911. growth 1891. 1901. 1911. 1891. 1901. 1911. 1901-11. Cornwall.... .... 190 186 184 23 154 149 145 19 - Devon ... .... 236 224 227 15 233 219 220 14 Somerset .... 247 242 250 25 203 192 194 21 Dorset .... 109 101 105 17 106 97 98 16 Wilts .... .... 162 154 161 19 146 134 136 17 - South-Western* 754 721 743 19 688 642 648 17 1 Hants and Isle of Wight..... 211 223 260 27 155 159 176 21 l Surrey .130 162 223 64 53 59 67 32 r Kent .... .... 287 294 312 36 194 190 197 27 Sussex. .... 194 198 219 26 181 181 195 23 Berk . .... 127 127 139 31 95 90 94 24 Bucks. .... 126 128 140 31 90 87 89 23 Herts . ... 94 97 117 33 63 61 64 23 Home Countiest 828 844 927 31 623 609 639 24 6 Essex. .... 230 237 265 31 170 165 175 24 Suffolk .... .... 201 191 195 22 195 185 187 21 Norfolk .... 263 253 261 21 261 250 256 20 Camb and Ely ... 107 103 110 22 10& 98 102 21 Hunts. .... 30 30 30 15 30 30 30 15 Lincs. 250 239 255 16 243 2b1 238 15 Eastern .... 1,081 1,053 1,116 21 1,002 959 988 19 3 Bedford .... .... 80 75 78 27 71 66 67 24 Leicester... 128 137 151 31 74 74 76 18 Rutland . ... 17 16 17 18 17 16 17 18 Northants anld Peterboro' .... 133 129 131 22 120 113 113 20 Oxford . .. 104 96 100 22 95 87 89 20 - Gloucester 223 223 231 31 145 136 141 22 S. Midland .... 685 676 708 27 522 492 503 21 2 Monmouth . 43 43 47 13 37 36 39 11 Hereford. ... 78 75 74 14 77 75 73 14 Shropshire .... 135 133 137 17 126 123 125 16 Western ...